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CFL Week 5 Betting Podcast 7-12-2018 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Ian Cameron |
Tags: CFL Ian Cameron
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| | CFL Betting Free Pick: Calgary Stampeders at Ottawa Redblacks |
Submitted by ICC
Calgary at Ottawa +3 O/U 54.5
Recommendation: Ottawa
It’s not easy to go against the Calgary Stampeders who have started this season as the class of the CFL once again at 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS and are the lone remaining undefeated team. They are coming off a bye week and they have won a whopping 16 straight games off a bye. All that being said, I like Ottawa in this spot and think they are worth a play at +3 as a home underdog for a variety of reasons. The main one betting that Calgary entered their bye playing well and clicking on all cylinders on both sides of the football especially their defense which has been stifling. Often times, bye weeks for teams playing well prior to them arrive at a bad time and tend to throw off rhythm and chemistry. Calgary does have some injury concerns on both sides of the football as well entering this game. Teams off a bye are usually relatively healthy but that is not quite the case this time around for the Stampeders. Ottawa is 2-1 on the season with their only loss coming to Calgary when these teams played a couple weeks ago when the Stamps prevailed 24-14 although they didn’t pull away until the 4th Qtr as the defense played very well despite the offense having a tough time moving the football. The Redblacks offense which struggled in that loss in Calgary was able to bounce back and look much crisper and sharper offensively last week in their 28-18 win over Montreal. The Ottawa offense put up 40 points in their lone previous home game against Saskatchewan this season and they have scored a combined 57 points in their last two home games against Calgary since 2016. The Redblacks offensive line should be approaching full strength for the first time this season as well with Nolan MacMillan possibly returning and Jason Lauzon-Seguin definitely suiting up for this game tonight and returning to that offensive line. Ottawa has a rock solid long-term 14-5 ATS track record in their last 19 games as an underdog including 4-1 ATS in their last 5 tries as home dogs. The last two meetings between the Stamps and Redblacks in Ottawa both ended in ties and I would not be surprised to see Calgary once again be in tough here to win this game at all let alone by any sort of margin.
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| | FanDuel set to operate sportsbook at Meadowlands starting Saturday |
Things are moving swiftly with regards to legalized sports betting in the United States. Paddy Power Betfair just announced a partnership with FanDuel. They'll kick things off on Saturday with the opening of the FanDuel Sportsbook at Meadowlands Racetrack. A full betting menu is expected to be offered. The one question that remains is how will U.S.-based sportsbooks "look" in comparison to Las Vegas and more importantly offshore? William Hill, which has built a reputation of being non-sharp friendly, is already stationed on the East Coast. We mentioned last month that they were dealing 20 cent MLB lines; a practice that is unfortunately becoming all too common. In theory, having different corporations and thus different sportsbooks is a good thing. It creates competition and allows even novice bettors a chance to "shop around" with different lines at different shops. Football season will help paint a clearer picture, particularly with how each sportsbooks handles limits and sharper players. In the end, legalized sports betting is a good thing but we remain pessimistic the product will be as "bettor friendly" as offshore mainstays like CRIS, Pinnacle, Greek, and 5Dimes.
“This is a pivotal time for the sports world in general, and we are poised to build upon our individual successes and join forces to build the best fan experience in the sports industry.”
There will be 10 towers or windows with live tellers for sports betting, plus spots for parimutuel horse racing,” Settlemoir said of the physical setup of the facility, which is temporary for now and will expand by the end of August. “And two self-service terminals in there for parimutuel as well,” he added.
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| | Carolina Panthers owner claims legalized sports betting will hurt TV ratings |
Look, everyone is titled to their own opinion. But when your opinion is hot garbage, it deserves to be criticized. Carolina Panthers owner David Tepper, for whatever reason, dropped this gem of a quote...
“TV has been fractionalized so there’s a lot of different media, so you’re talking about TV ratings,” Tepper said. “When you add up all the social media, Apple, Amazon, I don’t think football is being affected more or less than anything else. I also think this thing we talked about a little bit before called gambling is going to make ratings go down. I just have a feeling about that. You may know more about that than me but that’s my feeling.”
Just let that marinate for a second. The spread of legalized sports betting in the United States is going to hurt the NFL's TV ratings? What's worse is Tepper had zero facts to back up his statement, going so far as to say all he had was a "feeling." David, there are indeed facts out there and they clearly state that legalized sports betting is only going to increase viewership as pretty much everyone, both anti and pro, is well aware of.
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| | MLB Betting Podcast 7-11-2018 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Andrew Lange |
Tags: MLB Andrew Lange
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| | NFL Season Over/Under Wins Betting Podcast 7-10-2018 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers |
Tags: NFL Teddy Covers
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| | A look back at Teddy Covers' 2017-18 NFL Season O/U Wins: Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 6.5 wins |
Below is a selection and analysis from last year's NFL Season Over/Under Wins Report courtesy of Teddy Covers. Teddy's track record is nothing short of remarkable: 82-35 70% since 2001 including a 28-8 78% mark over the last six years. Here's a link to all of Teddy's documented selections. The "first wave" of this year's package will be released TUESDAY, JULY 10. Clients will be provided with a specific release time. If you have any questions, you can reach Sportsmemo at 1-800-575-3069 or [email protected]
10* Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 6.5 Wins
I’ll get to Blake Bortles. But I’m not going to start with Blake Bortles! I’m going to start with everything else!
The Jaguars were a ‘hot’ team in the betting markets two years ago, thanks to an infusion of young talent after a ‘they’ve bottomed out’ 3-13 campaign in 2014 and 4-12 mark in 2013. But the Jags continued to struggle; finishing 5-11 in 2015. Last year, once again there was heavy pro-Jaguars money throughout the summer months. And again, the Jags underachieved mightily, finishing with a 3-13 mark. As a result of those failures, there’s no strong bandwagon to jump on the Jaguars this year – bettors have been burned before. When I talked to savvy pros about the Jags around Las Vegas this summer, I got plenty of ‘eye rolls’ from bettors who are ‘tired of losing money with that team’. That, folks, is a market inefficiency, plain and simple.
But make no mistake about it. After years of high draft choices and plenty of cap room to nap elite talents in free agency, this roster is loaded! I’ll say it again, even louder: ‘LOADED’. The Jags have a stud running back in #1 pick Leonard Fournette. They’ve got stud wide receivers in Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and Marquise Lee. They’ve got an offensive line that ranks in the top half of the NFL for the first time this decade, according to Pro Football Focus.
The defensive is loaded as well. They added pass rushing force Calais Campbell, who’s veteran leadership has been “off the charts” according to head coach Doug Marrone, while forcing teams to single team emerging DE Yannick Ngakoue on the other side . Free agent signee AJ Bouye gives them a stud cornerback duo with last year’s #1 pick Jalen Ramsey, on the other side. For a defense that finished #4 in the NFL in yards per play allowed last year – a key ‘advanced metric’ stat, the 2017 Jags defense should be even better.
The offense looks good. The defense looks good. What about the schedule? Last year, the Jags were really up against it, schedule wise, facing a tougher than average slate. This year, the situation is reversed, as the Jags face an ‘easier than average’ slate of opponents. In fact, the Jags face only two teams ALL YEAR who are lined higher than 8.5 wins. And with the likes of the Jets, Browns, Rams and 49ers on the slate, they’ve got plenty of ‘winnable’ games outside of their division. Even as bottom feeders, the Jags won a pair of divisional games in each of the past two seasons.
Here’s the key quote from veteran tight end Mercedes Lewis: “Just talking talent, we might have the most talent that I've ever been around, top to bottom. It's hard for me to stand up here and make predictions -- I really don't like doing that -- but I think coming [into] that first game, we're going to have our best product within the last decade on that field."
I’m well aware that Blake Bortles is the weak link here, a QB with as many turnovers (69) as TD passes in his three year NFL career. But there’s legitimate hope for Bortles this season, throwing behind a solid OL with a strong running game and a bevy of quality receivers to support him. I’m highly confident that Bortles won’t be ranked dead last in QBR among NFL full time starting QB’s this year – he’s paid his dues, primed for a breakout season in his ‘make or break’ fourth year as the starter.
The Jags are also worthy of a wager at 6:1 or higher to win the division.
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| | MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers |
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Atlanta (Foltynewicz) at Milwaukee (Peralta) O/U 8
Recommendation: Atlanta
The Braves have been significant moneymakers on the highway all year long; 26-20 on the road even after losing a pair of games at Yankee Stadium and then dropping the opener of this series last night. It’s surely worth noting that this current skid matches the Braves longest losing streak all season – just three games. Clearly, Atlanta is a team that has responded very well to adversity.
And the quotes coming out of this locker room continue to offer rationale for betting on Atlanta with a ‘plus price’ return on a consistent basis. Braves catcher Kurt Suzuki: "This team has no fear. We have a lot of young guys but we also have some veterans. We approach every game the same way." Atlanta manager Brian Snitker, following their tough series against the Yankees: "I thought we handled ourselves really well (in the Bronx). We won a really tough game the first night, we put ourselves in a position to win today and today here we come again. The guys never quit. They know they can play with anybody and it's a good sign."
Atlanta starter Mike Foltynewicz has been downright dominant, allowing just one run on four hits in his last three starts COMBINED; striking out 19 batters in the process. Atlanta has won each of the last six times he’s pitched when the Braves have scored more than two runs. Foltynewicz is pitching with a realistic chance to cement a spot on the All Star team tonight; a huge accomplishment for a guy who entered the season with a career ERA just shy of 5.00! No surprise, then, that the betting markets have been slow to adjust to Foltynewicz’s dramatic improvement here in 2018.
And there’s certainly reason to expect the Braves to produce more than two runs against Brewers rookie hurler Freddy Peralta. Peralta has thrown two gems in his last four trips to the hill, but he’s also been struggling with walks and too many fly balls. Bottom line: don’t expect many losing streaks from the Braves & the price is right to back the better team with the superior starter.
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| | ACC Coastal Betting Preview Podcast 7-6-2018 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Rob Veno |
Tags: College Football Miami Hurricanes Virginia Tech Hokies Pittsburgh Panthers Duke Blue Devils North Carolina Tar Heels Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Virginia Cavaliers Rob Veno
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| | CFL Handicapper Free Betting Pick: BC Lions at Winnipeg Blue Bombers |
Submitted by ICC
BC Lions +6 at Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Recommendation: BC Lions
We’ve seen some heavy movement in the betting markets on this game with Winnipeg jumping from a -3.5 home favorite to as high as -6. The origin of the move is the news that the Blue Bombers may have starting quarterback Matt Nichols back on the field after suffering an injury in training camp. Even if Nichols plays, however, there is some uncertainty regarding how sharp and efficient he will be given the fact he played less than a quarter in one preseason game and has had no extended practice reps on the field until just this past week. BC’s defense is very young in the secondary and also not getting an immense amount of pass rush from their front seven so far this season but it still remains to be seen if Nichols can find that rhythm and chemistry with this offense in his very first game back. On the flip side, Winnipeg’s defense has not exactly performed at a high level through the first three weeks. They shut down a very anemic Montreal offense in Week 2 but outside of that, the Bombers stop unit surrendered 31 points in a loss at Hamilton last week and 33 points to Edmonton in their season opener against two good offensive teams. I find it troubling laying significant points and asking teams to win by margin when they are not getting enough stops on the defensive side of the football and that has been the repeated problem for Winnipeg. The question is can the very inconsistent BC Lions offense take advantage of it. Jonathon Jennings is feeling the pressure after a lackluster performance last week in Edmonton and there are even some that believe another subpar showing from him could result in Travis Lulay replacing him as early as next week. I believe Jennings has what it takes to eventually be a viable starter in this league but the clock is ticking. One thing we know about Jennings is that he’s played some of his best football over the years during his CFL career against this Winnipeg team. BC has scored 26+ points in five of the seven meetings against Winnipeg that have been with Jennings under center for the Lions. Each of the last 6 meetings between the Lions and Blue Bombers have been decided by single digits which is why with this line steaming up a full 2.5 points, I’m willing to step in and take the generous points being offered with BC.
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| | ACC Atlantic Betting Preview Podcast 7-5-2018 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Rob Veno |
Tags: College Football Clemson Tigers NC State Wolfpack Wake Forest Demon Deacons Boston College Eagles Louisville Cardinals Florida State Seminoles Syracuse Orange Rob Veno
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| | Sports Betting Update: New Jersey's Meadowlands Racetrack set for launch on July 14 |
Meadowlands Racetrack is expected to offer a full sports betting menu starting on July 14.
"The timing is much better and in correlation with one of our biggest race days, the Meadowlands Pace," Settlemoir said.
More states expected to pass legalized sports betting laws | The floodgates have officially opened on legalized sports betting. Delaware is live. So is New Jersey. And a slew of other states are close behind.
Mississippi was aiming for a late July start though for whatever reason, a tweet announcing a target date was taken down. Still, with MGM running various casinos within the state, it's likely sportsbooks will be up and running by football season.
Kentucky wants to join the party though its taking a more cautious approach. The Bluegrass State is expected to start offering sports betting by next summer.
Rhode Island is in.
So is West Virginia, with a target date prior to football season.
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| | How will U.S. sportsbooks handle in-game wagering? |
Excellent article on sportsbooks and the companies that provide live data. In-game wagering is big business for offshore sportsbooks and having accurate and to-the-second updates is obviously critical. There have been instances of on-site gamblers taking advantage of delays and fraudulent statistics. Sportsbooks in the U.S. must now decide where to get their data and whether or not it is trustworthy. Betradar, for example, provides stats for offshore sportsbooks like CRIS, who have popped up in multiple cases of alleged illegal activity; i.e. agents providing accounts for U.S. based customers. That's the exact type of situation those working to ensure U.S. sportsbooks are operating on the "up and up" are trying to avoid.
“The idea of building the U.S. sports betting industry on unofficial data, it’s kind of putting it on a par with pirated DVDs and sidewalk hustlers and illicit streaming sites,” Mr. Burton said. “It’s all that grubby underworld.”
Scott Kaufman-Ross, an N.B.A. vice president, said: “For sports betting, official data should be the data that’s used. People are putting money on the line. It’s a real problem if they’re not getting the most accurate, up-to-date information.”
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| | Delaware sportsbooks' opening month sports betting results |
In-depth breakdown of the numbers behind Delaware's first month of legalized sports betting. The three state-run sportsbooks made close to $1 million which was then divided up. The state itself took in just over $400K. Overall, the monthly "hold" was 14% which is reportedly half of what Nevada normally sees.
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| | AFC North Betting Preview Podcast 7-3-2018 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers |
Tags: NFL Pittsburgh Steelers Baltimore Ravens Cincinnati Bengals Cleveland Browns Teddy Covers Andrew Lange
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| | College Football Handicapping: LSU's offense may regress even more in 2018 |
LSU has never been a hotbed of offensive continuity. Talented at times, yes, but rarely enjoyable to watch. Last season, Ed Orgeron grew impatient with offensive coordinator Matt Canada's sophisticated system and ultimately reverted back to the run-heavy, ultra conservative, let-the-defense-win-it-for-us days of Les Miles. Despite being the highest paid OC in the country, Canada ultimately bailed for Maryland. Orgeron decided to keep things in-house and promoted Steve Ensminger who had been the tight ends coach since 2010. Based on a few quotes from Ensminger, it doesn't look promising for the Bayou Bengals' offense again in 2018.
"We're a very young offense," he said. "I know nobody wants to hear that, and I could give a damn about it.
"We don't know who our quarterback is. We don't know who our running back is. It's running back by committee right now. Our receiver group, which I think is outstanding, I really do ... and that's the depth of our offense right now. I think we're gonna be really good up front."
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| | College Football Betting: Nationwide injury report proposed |
This could be a good score for college football bettors. The Big Ten is pushing for a nationwide injury report system in order to create more transparency. Some college coaches are notorious for playing coy with various key injuries in order to gain an advantage over the competition. But the reason the Big Ten wants everyone to do the same thing is for betting purposes. For the most part, injury information is readily available and fairly accurate these days thanks in large part to social media. An odds service may have a player questionable but all it takes is one fan to tweet "Bob Smith just came out of the tunnel and is in full pads." However, having a reliable source that everyone has access to sounds like a good plan for all parties involved.
"We have to be more transparent," Ohio State AD Gene Smith said during a National Association of Collegiate Directors of Athletics panel last week. "In football, we're going to kill this [idea of] gamesmanship around injuries."
Smith added: "We don't know if we want to report as many days as the NFL, but clearly on Mondays if somebody is injured from Saturday and you know they're not going to play the following Saturday because they broke their leg, why not just say that?"
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| | College Football Gambling: Liberty Flames newest addition to betting board |
College football bettors will have a new team to put their money on (or against) this season. The Liberty Flames are making the jump from FCS to FBS and will play as an Independent. Led by former Buffalo and Kansas head coach Turner Gill, the Flames have been a solid FCS program but far from elite with just one postseason appearance in six years. Below is a list of Liberty's recent Sagarin Ratings and the two closest FBS teams. Schedule-wise, Liberty isn't just trolling for paychecks. They play six home games and only two against power conference foes (at Virginia, at Auburn). They also face fellow Independent New Mexico State twice. The Flames are currently +6/+5.5 home underdogs vs. Old Dominion in Week 1.
2017
179. San Jose State
182. Liberty
186. Kent State
2016
146. Texas State
150. Liberty
152. UL-Monroe
2015
158. Texas State
159. Liberty
161. Kent State
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| | MLB Betting Podcast 7-2-2018 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Andrew Lange |
Tags: MLB Andrew Lange
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| | AFC East Betting Preview Podcast 6-29-2018 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers |
Tags: NFL New England Patriots Miami Dolphins New York Jets Buffalo Bills Teddy Covers Andrew Lange
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| | CFL Week 3 Betting Podcast 6-28-2018 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Ian Cameron |
Tags: CFL Ian Cameron
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| | Teddy Covers' Famed NFL Season O/U Wins Results (82-35 70% Lifetime) |
Below are the lifetime results for Teddy Covers' NFL Season O/U Wins report. Since 2001, Teddy and his clients have produced an incredible record of 82-35 70%. Included in that success is a 12-2 86% mark with his 20* Big Ticket selections. This year's package is currently available for purchase right here. It will be released on Tuesday, July 10. Purchasers will be provided an exact time of release in order to ensure they get the "best of the number." If you have any questions, feel free to call us at 1-800-575-3069.
| Year |
Team |
Bet |
Record |
Result |
YTD Record |
Overall Rec. |
| 2001 |
Kansas City |
U 7.5 |
6-10 |
Win |
|
|
| 2001 |
Tennessee |
U 11 |
7-9 |
Win |
|
|
| 2001 |
Minnesota |
U 9 |
5-11 |
Win |
|
|
| 2001 |
Buffalo |
U 8 |
3-13 |
Win |
|
|
| 2001 |
Atlanta |
O 5.5 |
7-9 |
Win |
|
|
| 2001 |
Pittsburgh |
O 7 |
13-3 |
Win |
6-0 |
6-0 |
| Year |
Team |
Bet |
Record |
Result |
YTD Record |
Overall Rec. |
| 2002 |
Baltimore |
U 7.5 |
7-9 |
Win |
|
|
| 2002 |
Tennessee |
O 8.5 |
11-5 |
Win |
|
|
| 2002 |
Indianapolis |
U 9.5 |
10-6 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2002 |
Oakland |
U 9.5 |
11-5 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2002 |
Houston |
U 4.5 |
4-12 |
Win |
|
|
| 2002 |
St. Louis |
U 11.5 |
7-9 |
Win |
|
|
| 2002 |
Detroit |
U 6 |
3-13 |
Win |
|
|
| 2002 |
Washington |
O 8 |
7-9 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2002 |
NY Jets |
O 8.5 |
9-7 |
Win |
|
|
| 2002 |
New Orleans |
O 7 |
9-7 |
Win |
7-3 |
13-3 |
| Year |
Team |
Bet |
Record |
Result |
YTD Record |
Overall Rec. |
| 2003 |
20* Chicago |
U 7.5 |
7-9 |
Win |
|
|
| 2003 |
20* Indianap. |
O 8.5 |
12-4 |
Win |
|
|
| 2003 |
Cleveland |
U 8.5 |
5-11 |
Win |
|
|
| 2003 |
New England |
O 8.5 |
14-2 |
Win |
|
|
| 2003 |
Washington |
U 7.5 |
5-11 |
Win |
|
|
| 2003 |
Carolina |
O 7.5 |
11-5 |
Win |
|
|
| 2003 |
Arizona |
U 5.5 |
4-12 |
Win |
|
|
| 2003 |
Jacksonville |
U 6.5 |
5-11 |
Win |
|
|
| 2003 |
Minnesota |
O 8 |
9-7 |
Win |
|
|
| 2003 |
Pittsburgh |
U 9.5 |
6-10 |
Win |
10-0 |
23-3 |
| Year |
Team |
Bet |
Record |
Result |
YTD Record |
Overall Rec. |
| 2004 |
20* St. Louis |
U 9.5 |
8-8 |
Win |
|
|
| 2004 |
Houston |
O 6 |
7-9 |
Win |
|
|
| 2004 |
Miami |
U 8 |
4-12 |
Win |
|
|
| 2004 |
NY Jets |
O 8.5 |
10-6 |
Win |
|
|
| 2004 |
Minnesota |
O 8.5 |
8-8 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2004 |
Arizona |
U 5.5 |
6-10 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2004 |
NY Giants |
U 6.5 |
6-10 |
Win |
|
|
| 2004 |
Washington |
U 9 |
6-10 |
Win |
|
|
| 2004 |
Atlanta |
U 9 |
11-5 |
Loss |
6-3 |
29-6 |
| Year |
Team |
Bet |
Record |
Result |
YTD Record |
Overall Rec. |
| 2005 |
20* Miami |
U 6 |
9-7 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2005 |
Pittsburgh |
U 10 |
11-5 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2005 |
Jacksonville |
U 8.5 |
12-4 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2005 |
Houston |
U 7.5 |
2-14 |
Win |
|
|
| 2005 |
Tampa Bay |
U 7.5 |
11-5 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2005 |
Carolina |
O 9 |
11-5 |
Win |
|
|
| 2005 |
Cincinnati |
O 8 |
11-5 |
Win |
|
|
| 2005 |
Washington |
O 7.5 |
10-6 |
Win |
|
|
| 2005 |
Oakland |
O 7.5 |
4-12 |
Loss |
4-5 |
33-11 |
| Year |
Team |
Bet |
Record |
Result |
YTD Record |
Overall Rec. |
| 2006 |
20* San Diego |
O 8.5 |
14-2 |
Win |
|
|
| 2006 |
Cincinnati |
U 9 |
8-8 |
Win |
|
|
| 2006 |
Green Bay |
U 6.5 |
8-8 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2006 |
Kansas City |
U 9.5 |
9-7 |
Win |
|
|
| 2006 |
Miami |
O 9 |
6-10 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2006 |
New Orleans |
U 7 |
10-6 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2006 |
NY Giants |
U 9 |
8-8 |
Win |
|
|
| 2006 |
Philadelphia |
O 8.5 |
10-6 |
Win |
5-3 |
38-14 |
| Year |
Team |
Bet |
Record |
Result |
YTD Record |
Overall Rec. |
| 2007 |
20* Baltimore |
U 9.5 |
5-11 |
Win |
|
|
| 2007 |
Carolina |
U 9 |
7-9 |
Win |
|
|
| 2007 |
Cleveland |
U 6 |
10-6 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2007 |
Detroit |
O 6 |
7-9 |
Win |
|
|
| 2007 |
Denver |
U 9.5 |
7-9 |
Win |
|
|
| 2007 |
Kansas City |
U 7.5 |
4-12 |
Win |
|
|
| 2007 |
Oakland |
O 5 |
4-12 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2007 |
Washington |
O 7.5 |
9-7 |
Win |
6-2 |
44-16 |
| Year |
Team |
Bet |
Record |
Result |
YTD Record |
Overall Rec. |
| 2008 |
20* New Eng. |
U 12.5 |
11-5 |
Win |
|
|
| 2008 |
Baltimore |
U 6.5 |
11-5 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2008 |
Buffalo |
O 7.5 |
7-9 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2008 |
Chicago |
U 8 |
9-7 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2008 |
Cleveland |
U 8.5 |
4-12 |
Win |
|
|
| 2008 |
Houston |
O 7.5 |
8-8 |
Win |
|
|
| 2008 |
Kansas City |
U 6.5 |
2-14 |
Win |
|
|
| 2008 |
Minnesota |
O 8.5 |
10-6 |
Win |
|
|
| 2008 |
New Orleans |
O 8.5 |
8-8 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2008 |
St. Louis |
U 6.5 |
2-14 |
Win |
6-4 |
50-20 |
| Year |
Team |
Bet |
Record |
Result |
YTD Record |
Overall Rec. |
| 2009 |
20* Carolina |
U 8.5 |
8-8 |
Win |
|
|
| 2009 |
Chicago |
U 9 |
7-9 |
Win |
|
|
| 2009 |
Cincinnati |
O 6.5 |
10-6 |
Win |
|
|
| 2009 |
Miami |
U 7.5 |
7-9 |
Win |
|
|
| 2009 |
Tennessee |
U 9 |
8-8 |
Win |
|
|
| 2009 |
San Francisco |
U 7.5 |
8-8 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2009 |
San Diego |
O 10 |
13-3 |
Win |
6-1 |
56-21 |
| Year |
Team |
Bet |
Record |
Result |
YTD Record |
Overall Rec. |
| 2010 |
20* Minnesota |
U 9.5 |
6-10 |
Win |
|
|
| 2010 |
New England |
U 9.5 |
14-2 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2010 |
Pittsburgh |
U 8.5 |
12-4 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2010 |
Philadelphia |
U 8.5 |
10-6 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2010 |
Green Bay |
U 10 |
10-6 |
Push |
|
|
| 2010 |
Miami |
O 8.5 |
7-9 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2010 |
Tampa Bay |
O 5.5 |
10-6 |
Win |
2-4-1 |
58-25-1 |
| Year |
Team |
Bet |
Record |
Result |
YTD Record |
Overall Rec. |
| 2011 |
20* NY Giants |
U 9.5 |
9-7 |
Win |
|
|
| 2011 |
San Diego |
O 10 |
8-8 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2011 |
Oakland |
U 7 |
8-8 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2011 |
Houston |
O 8.5 |
10-6 |
Win |
|
|
| 2011 |
New Orleans |
O 10 |
13-3 |
Win |
3-2 |
61-27 |
| Year |
Team |
Bet |
Record |
Result |
YTD Record |
Overall Rec. |
| 2012 |
20* Baltimore |
U 10 |
10-6 |
Push |
|
|
| 2012 |
Detroit |
U 9.5 |
4-12 |
Win |
|
|
| 2012 |
Miami |
U 7.5 |
7-9 |
Win |
|
|
| 2012 |
Seattle |
O 7 |
11-5 |
Win |
|
|
| 2012 |
Philadelphia |
U 10 |
4-12 |
Win |
4-0-1 |
65-27-2 |
| Year |
Team |
Bet |
Record |
Result |
YTD Record |
Overall Rec. |
| 2013 |
20* Kan City |
O 7.5 |
11-5 |
Win |
|
|
| 2013 |
Dallas |
U 8.5 |
8-8 |
Win |
|
|
| 2013 |
New England |
U 11 |
12-4 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2013 |
Atlanta |
U 10 |
4-12 |
Win |
|
|
| 2013 |
San Diego |
U 7.5 |
9-7 |
Loss |
3-2 |
68-29-2 |
| Year |
Team |
Bet |
Record |
Result |
YTD Record |
Overall Rec. |
| 2014 |
20* Carolina |
U 8.5 |
7-8-1 |
Win |
|
|
| 2014 |
Kansas City |
U 8.5 |
9-7 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2014 |
Atlanta |
U 8.5 |
6-10 |
Win |
|
|
| 2014 |
Buffalo |
O 6.5 |
9-7 |
Win |
|
|
| 2014 |
Tennessee |
O 7 |
2-14 |
Loss |
3-2 |
71-31-2 |
| Year |
Team |
Bet |
Record |
Result |
YTD Record |
Overall Rec. |
| 2015 |
20* Kan City |
O 8.5 |
11-5 |
Win |
|
|
| 2015 |
Arizona |
O 8.5 |
13-3 |
Win |
|
|
| 2015 |
Dallas |
U 9.5 |
4-12 |
Win |
|
|
| 2015 |
Philadelphia |
U 9.5 |
7-9 |
Win |
|
|
| 2015 |
Cleveland |
U 6.5 |
3-13 |
Win |
5-0 |
76-31-2 |
| Year |
Team |
Bet |
Record |
Result |
YTD Record |
Overall Rec. |
| 2016 |
20* Philly |
U 7 |
7-9 |
Push |
|
|
| 2016 |
Cincinnati |
U 9.5 |
6-9-1 |
Win |
|
|
| 2016 |
Indianapolis |
U 9.5 |
8-8 |
Win |
|
|
| 2016 |
LA Rams |
U 7.5 |
4-12 |
Win |
|
|
| 2016 |
Minnesota |
O 9.5 |
8-8 |
Loss |
3-1-1 |
79-32-3 |
| Year |
Team |
Bet |
Record |
Result |
YTD Record |
Overall Rec. |
| 2017 |
20* Detroit |
U 8 |
9-7 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2017 |
Jacksonville |
O 6.5 |
10-6 |
Win |
|
|
| 2017 |
Kansas City |
U 9 |
10-6 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2017 |
New England |
U 12.5 |
13-3 |
Loss |
|
|
| 2017 |
Indianapolis |
U 9 |
4-12 |
Win |
|
|
| 2017 |
Washington |
U 7.5 |
7-9 |
Win |
3-3 |
82-35-3 |
|
|
| | College Football Handicapping: Windy conditions do in fact produce lower scoring games |
Informative article about how college football games in windy conditions trend under the total. This isn't a sophisticated concept; more a reminder of the delicate balance between being ahead of the curve vs. using good old fashion logic. According to the study, since 2005, games that featured wind over 10 mph went under the total 54.7% of the time. Now, there are a number of factors to consider including location of wind gauge, wind at kickoff vs. end of the game (a lot can change over the course of 3+ hours), and stadium layout. Another is what lines the study used to grade the plays. Nearly every game pegged for windy conditions gets bet under. So in theory, that 54.7% is likely higher even if you use totals from a day before vs. the closing number. And to no surprise, the strength of the trend increases as the wind increases (15+ mph is 58%). Despite having a few holes, it’s a rare trend with a big enough sample size (1,930 plays) that bettors should take notice.
|
|
| | CFL Betting Free Pick: Ottawa Redblacks at Calgary Stampeders |
Submitted by ICC
Ottawa at Calgary -7 O/U 57
Recommendation: Under
Two victorious teams last week will square off to kick off the CFL Week 3 schedule on Thursday night when the Ottawa Redblacks take on the Calgary Stampeders. Ottawa won its season opener in blowout fashion by a score of 40-17. The Redblacks offense under Trevor Harris looked sharp piling up 345 passing yards to go along with 114 yards on the ground against a Saskatchewan defense that looked thoroughly dominant previously in a Week 1 27-19 victory against the defending Grey Cup champion Toronto Argonauts. Ottawa also stepped up defensively against Saskatchewan in their win and looked very impressive on that side of the football. The Redblacks stop unit held the Roughriders to less than 100 rushing yards. Most of the 345 passing yards that Saskatchewan had came later in the game in garbage time with the final score no longer in doubt. Calgary is 2-0 to begin the season after dismantling the Toronto Argonauts 41-7 this past weekend in the Grey Cup rematch between the two teams. Bo Levi Mitchell and the Stampeders offense struggled to finish off drives in their season opening win against Hamilton but they made up for it against Toronto with Mitchell throwing for 3 TD passes and Calgary racking up 549 total yards. That is more like what we are used to from the Stamps offense. The fact we have two very good QBs and two teams that have played mostly higher scoring games against one another in recent seasons has influenced this total which sits at 57 right now. I think it’s a notch too high. Calgary’s offense was strong last week in Toronto but had plenty of red zone problems in their first game prior to that and also most of last season finishing drives was sometimes a challenge for them. On the flip side, Ottawa’s offense is likely to find it more difficult to move the football and put up points in bunches in this their first road game of the season against a Stamps defense that has given up just 21 points in their first two games combined and ranks tops in the CFL early on in the new season in fewest passing yards, rushing yards and total yards per game allowed. The Over has gone 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams but I’m willing to take a plunge and buck that trend on Thursday night in a game featuring two good but slightly overvalued offenses along with two undervalued defenses.
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| | MLB Betting Podcast 6-27-2018 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Andrew Lange |
Tags: MLB Andrew Lange
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