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PAC-10 Free Betting Pick: Stanford Cardinal at Arizona Wildcats

01.08.2011     08:21 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Andrew Lange

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Stanford at Arizona -11 O/U 131.5 
Recommendation: Over


Stanford hasn't faced a lot of strong offensive teams so its defensive numbers are a little misleading. In games against Butler and Oklahoma State, the Cardinal simply couldn't make stops and allowed 83 and 79 respectively. Last time out, Stanford held Arizona State to 41 – and impressive feat until you notice that the Sun Devils are one of only five power conference schools to average less than a point per possession.

Arizona is arguably the most dynamic offense Stanford has faced and at home, I'm confident the Wildcats can score in the mid-70s. The reason for my confidence is that the Cats have score 72+ in every game but two this season. The concern here is whether or not Stanford can score enough to push this over the total. I think Arizona's defense may be a little overrated. They allowed 87 to both Kansas and BYU and Oregon State and California topped the 70-point barrier.

The total against California opened 135.5, closed 137 and went over by eight points. Stanford doesn't play as fast as the Golden Bears but the adjustment in my opinion is too much. Anything 132.5 or below is worth a play on the over.

Tags: Arizona Wildcats Stanford Cardinal PAC-10 Andrew Lange College Basketball




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