Arkansas -15.5 at Mississippi O/U 56.5
Arkansas faces its old coach, Houston Nutt, this week after a bye last week. The Razorbacks face an Ole Miss offense that has yet to score more than one touchdown in a conference game. Last week the Rebels scored on their opening possession against Alabama and then failed to threaten the rest of the game in a 52-7 loss. Ole Miss is averaging just 186 yards per game in SEC play with nine turnovers in the three games. Arkansas hasn’t played since whipping Auburn 38-14 at home two weeks ago. The Hogs should have too much firepower for the Rebels here.
Tennessee at Alabama -29.5 O/U 46.5
This was once one of the most compelling rivalries in the SEC, but Tennessee’s fall from prominence has turned it into just another conference game. Alabama has won four straight in the series, with only one of the four decided by less than 20 points. The close contest was the last time Tennessee came to Tuscaloosa two years ago; a 14-12 Alabama win. There is nothing to indicate this game will be competitive, however, as the Vols haven’t been able to move the ball in a conference game thus far. They have not gained more than 279 yards in any of their three SEC losses, and Matt Simms showed last week why he lost the starting quarterback job to now injured Tyler Bray last year. Alabama’s defense has been dominant thus far, allowing just 7.0 ppg for the year. I have a hard time seeing Tennessee top that mark in this one.
Auburn at LSU -21 O/U 47.5
LSU will face a new quarterback for a third straight week – they had an easy time with the first two. The Tigers throttled Florida in its first game without John Brantley, 41-11, and then whipped Tennessee last week, 38-7, with Matt Simms making his season debut. This week, Clint Moseley takes over behind center for Auburn, but he does face an LSU defense without two key members of its secondary that are suspended. Auburn has a better shot than Florida and Tennessee because of its power running game. Michael Dyer has had a solid season and I expect to see him get 30 carries in this game. Auburn has also shown big improvements on the defensive side of the ball after an atrocious start to the season. They struggled with spread offenses early, but fared much better against South Carolina and Florida’s run -ased attacks. I have a feeling that this one will be much closer than expected.
Army at Vanderbilt -11 O/U 47
Vanderbilt’s offense showed some signs of life last week against Georgia, scoring three touchdowns and gaining 349 yards. They also had four turnovers, however, which helped Georgia hold on for a 33-28 win. Vandy will face an Army defense that has allowed over 500 yards of offense and at least 35 points in all three of its road games thus far: Northern Illinois, Ball State and Miami-Ohio. The Commodores should be able to put some points on the board again this week, but I am not sure I am willing to lay double-digits. Army has been very consistent on offense this year, gaining at least 387 yards in all six of its games. The Cadets are -5 in turnover ratio, however, and with their porous defense on the road, it’s hard to make a case for them as well.