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| |  | Live betting got its start in the Wrigley Field bleachers | Awesome story about the "in-game wagering" that took place in the Wrigley Field bleachers back in 1920.
"Ten cents says he swings!"
"A dollar the pitcher changes his windup on the next one!"
"Two bits they send in a pinch-hitter the next time around!"
"Who wants ten dollars on the runner? Ten dollars says he streaks down to second!"
At the end of the first inning, the undercover cops all stood up. In one voice, they announced: "You’re all under arrest!"
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| | NBA Gambling: Bettors lean with road underdogs, Pacers and Spurs | Here are the consensus bets for tonight and Saturday's NBA Playoff Games courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages represent the number of bets (not total handle) placed on each given wager.
Sides
Indiana +7.5 - 58.7%
San Antonio +5.5 - 53.3%
Moneyline
Indiana +315 - 64.1%
San Antonio +200/Memphis -240 - 50%
Totals
Indiana-Miami OVER 182 - 76.3%
San Antonio-Memphis OVER 177.5 - 61.2%
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| | Gambler loses, gambler gets pissed, gambler smashes bookies with hammer | Nothing worse than a sore loser. Especially one who likes to use a hammer.
"They recognised a male customer who had been in the shop earlier that day and had lost some money on the roulette machines. He made his way towards the machine and started to smash the front glass screens of the machines. Once the accused had smashed up the machine he moved onto another machine and repeated his actions.
"The witnesses made their way into the rear of the shop and locked the door. They could hear the accused smashing the machines and a few minutes later they heard him leaving the shop."
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| | MLB Handicapper Free Pick: Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox | Submitted by ICC
Cleveland (Masterson) +100 at Boston (Lackey) O/U 9
Recommendation: Cleveland
The Cleveland Indians are one of the hottest teams in Major League Baseball right now and it has gone relatively unnoticed by the betting markets. They’ve won six of their last eight games and they've done so with better than expected starting pitching and an offense that can score runs. Cleveland has netted at least 5 runs in 7 of their last 8 games providing plenty of run support for their pitchers including a 12-run outburst in their win against the Red Sox last night. I think they will have a great chance to score more runs tonight against John Lackey. He pitched very well last time out against Minnesota but I still have my doubts about Lackey as he had allowed 5 runs in back-to-back starts prior to his effort vs. the Twins. It's worth noting that Lackey has pitched 7 innings just once in his six starts this season and that is a concern tonight because the Boston bullpen (which has struggled even when rested) is in an extreme state of fatigue after logging 6 innings of relief last night thanks to another rough outing for Ryan Dempster. That should leave the door open for the Cleveland lineup which is on fire right now to score runs early and late in tonight's game.
Justin Masterson takes to the mound for Cleveland and he's had great success against his former team. He enters tonight with a 3.72 ERA in six career starts against Boston. He is in amazing form right now going 3-0 with a sparkling 1.17 ERA in his last three starts. Masterson is on a tremendous scoreless streak of 19 innings which includes back-to-back starts without allowing a run against Seattle and the New York Yankees. There is also very little doubt there is a little added incentive for Cleveland to rally together to win as many games as possible in this weekend series against Boston for their manager Terry Francona who spent many years in Boston as the Red Sox skipper before being rudely shown the door after the well documented 2011 season ending collapse. Cleveland is 19-7 in their last 26 games yet there is still value betting on this team right now particularly tonight in this near pick ‘em price.
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| | Sports Betting Podcast 5-24-2013 with Handicappers Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning | Tags: MLB NBA Teddy Covers Erin Rynning
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| | UFC 160 Free Gambling Pick: Mike Pyle vs. Rick Story | Submitted by Alf Musketa
UFC 160
Saturday, May 25
MGM Grand Garden, Las Vegas
Mike Pyle +125 vs. Rick Story
Recommendation: Pyle
Rick Story (15-6, 8-4 in the UFC) is a replacement for Gunnar Nelson. Nelson, the Iceland native, is the much maligned and highly anticipated potential welter-weight contender who many say is the next George St. Pierre. Nelson is out with a knee injury.
Mike Pyle (24-8-1, 7-3 UFC) was prepping for a big fight with Nelson, but now gets Story. You might think this could be a letdown spot for Pyle as a win over Nelson would put him in line for a title shot. But not so, as Pyle mentions, "GSP has been calling the shots as to who he fights for his title, when and where, and he is not going to give a 37 year old no name guy like me a shot." Pyle is content to keep on winning and Story is just in his way.
Pyle has only one loss in his last seven fights and he has won his last three fights in a row, all of them by KO or TKO via knees and punches. Pyle has a a three inch height and reach advantage. His ju-jitsu game is superior to that of Story's and his overall ground game as well.
Story fought just 70 days ago. A normal period of time in between fights is 3-4 months. Story has taken this fight on short notice and is looking to cash another quick pay check in my opinion and will run out of gas in the later rounds versus "Quicksand" Pyle and his relentless attack. Story has one major weakness and that is he gets taken down to the ground allot and quite easily. In 53 attempts Story's opponents have taken him down 26 times (49%), a percentage mark that is highest of all UFC fighter with 50 plus attempts.
Early money has come in on Pyle and I believe the oddsmakers have the wrong favorite here. We expect Pyle to dominate the takedowns and control the match in this fashion and win by decision or late round submission.
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| | MLB Handicapping: Are the Washington Nationals Really 80% to Miss the Playoffs? | Submitted by Stat Intelligence
It’s only May 23, but ESPN’s standings page is showing that the preseason favorite to win the National League is now 80% to MISS the playoffs entirely.
NL East Chance to Make Playoffs (typed up moments before posting)
Atlanta 90%
Washington 19.9%
Philadelphia 11.4%
NY Mets 3.4%
Miami 0.1%
Can that be true?
In favor of the skepticism:
*Washington has a run differential of -26, even though they’re won-lost record is 24-23. I think the sabermetric world pays way too much attention to that particular number. But…the Nats really are WAY off the pace for what a championship contender should be doing.
*Washington is 5-1 against the horrible Miami Marlins, a virtual expansion team in their own division. That means they’re 19-22 against the rest of the league. Washington was +16 in run differential in those wins, which means they’re -42 vs. everyone else. That pretty much sums up the case for the Nats not being playoff caliber. They’re 19-22 with a -42 run differential vs. non-expansion teams!
*Washington’s offense is really struggling. I went through and grabbed “road only” offensive stats for the National League tonight. I was going to make that the theme of this blog post…but there really wasn’t too much that was interesting there yet. What WAS interesting was that Washington is last in the NL in road batting average, second worst in the league in road on-base percentage, and third worst in the NL in road slugging.
Let’s compare them to that horrible Miami team. I’ll throw in league average to give you some context:
Road Average: .244 batting, .309 on base, .379 slugging
Miami: .230 batting, .291 on base, .345 slugging
Washington: .217 batting, .283 on base, .356 slugging
Using “road only” numbers helps take out the biases that home fields can create. Washington is worse than expansion caliber Miami away from home….well below average….and WAY below what the best offenses are doing.
In favor of optimism:
*Hey, there’s no place to go but UP on offense!
*Washington has played 21 home games and 26 road games…meaning they’ve slightly taken the worst of it with their early season schedule. They can scoot more aggressively back into the Wildcard race by winning those five extra home games.
*Washington is in a crap division…and the unbalanced schedule will give them a puncher’s chance at a Wildcard spot even if they don’t make a big step forward offensively. Miami’s 13-34 in the current standings. The Mets are struggling badly of late, and are only 14-24 this season when not playing Miami. Philadelphia is 12-19 when not playing the Mets or Marlins.. The other divisions are deeper at the top at the moment than the NL East. If that holds through 162 games…then Washington will play a softer schedule than many of the other Wildcard contenders (depending on Interleague).
The best case for Washington surging the rest of the way is that it’s not hard to surge when you see a lot of the Phillies, Mets, and Marlins.
It’s Philadelphia who’s facing Washington this weekend, in a three-game set that begins Friday. That’s followed by a four-game Interleague rivalry extravaganza with the Baltimore Orioles (Monday and Tuesday in Washington, Wednesday and Thursday in Baltimore—love THAT format!)…and then a three-game road trip against first place Atlanta. The 2013 outlook of the Nats will be clearer after those seven games against the O’s and Braves.
I think it’s probably overstating it to suggest that Washington is only 20% to make the playoffs. But…it’s been a disappointing season so far…and they need to lift their play substantially to matter as much as fans/pundits/bettors had been expecting.
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| | MLB Gambling News: Kansas City Royals still swinging, still mediocre | Yesterday on the Sportsmemo Podcast and in the posting forum, the question came up, why is Kansas City's offense so bad? There are probably numerous factors and in all reality, the unit isn't necessarily "bad" so much as being consistent underachievers. There is however one (correctable) thing that has kept this team from producing more offensively and that is walks. The Royals have long been a free swinging team that every season ranks near the bottom of the American League in free passes. This season, in games in which Kansas City walked five or more times, they are 6-1. Now the record shouldn't come as a shock but rather the miniscule amount of games in which the feat of walking five or more times occurred. We looked up the Oakland A's and discovered they had walked five times or more on 16 occasions (note that they've played four more games than KC). And other crazy stat is that Kansas City has walked once or zero times in 13 games (5-8 record)! When you're trying to escape the clutches of mediocrity the willingness to take walks and develop a better plate approach is paramount. The Royals have clearly not gotten that memo.
Year: Walks - AL Rank
2013: 111 - 15th
2012: 404 - 15th
2011: 442 - 12th
2010: 471 - 9th
2009: 457 - 13th
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| | MLB Betting News: Chicago's John Danks makes his return | Miami (Koehler) at Chicago WS (Danks) -175 O/U 7.5
Chicago's John Danks is only 28 years old yet as he prepares to make his first start in over a calendar year the consensus is that Danks will need to reinvent himself in order to survive at the MLB level. The Chicago Tribune essentially said Danks is going for the Mark Buehrle 2.0 look. Velocity isn't as vital coming from the left side but bouncing back from shoulder surgery is no easy task. We strongly recommend bettors take a wait-and-see approach.
"His cut fastball was effective against right-handed hitters, and he also used it against lefties," Phegley said. "He also mixed in his curve and changeup.
"He threw his curve for strikes, although he wasn't completely satisfied with it at times. His changeup always has been a big pitch for him, and he was very effective with it."
"When you see a guy like Buehrle, who John resembles, you can definitely keep subtracting (velocity)," catcher Tyler Flowers said. "You don't have to throw 92 mph to be effective in this league. That might give you a slightly bigger margin for error, but if you hit your spots, more often than not, it doesn't matter how hard you're throwing.
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| | MLB Handicapping: Miller Park's boost in offensive production | Check out the meteoric rise in offensive production at Miller Park over the last five seasons. In 2009 the stadium ranked 27th in terms of runs whereas this season it is currently third. Totals at Miller Park are 16-8 O/U yet only one game has closed with a total of 9. The Brewers certainly fit the profile of a dead-nuts-over squad; above average offense, below average starting pitching, shaky defense, and an even shakier bullpen. Also note there are rumblings that the outfield panels have had an impact on the wind current inside the park.
| Miller Park - Park Factors 2009-13 | Year | MLB Rank | Park | RUNS | HR | H | 2B | 3B | BB | 2013 | 3 | Miller Park | 1.240 | 1.976 | 1.184 | 0.862 | 1.750 | 0.942 | 2012 | 7 | Miller Park | 1.168 | 1.631 | 0.997 | 0.987 | 1.333 | 1.060 | 2011 | 10 | Miller Park | 1.041 | 1.062 | 1.058 | 1.089 | 1.269 | 1.084 | 2010 | 15 | Miller Park | 1.005 | 1.233 | 0.993 | 0.994 | 0.600 | 1.032 | 2009 | 27 | Miller Park | 0.886 | 1.069 | 0.932 | 1.071 | 1.091 | 0.995 |
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| | MLB Betting Notes: Different year, similar results for Minnesota's starting pitching | We talked about Minnesota's crappy pitching on today's Sportsmemo Podcast ( listen here). Hardball Talk to a closer look at the numbers compared to last year. The team’s 4.2 strikeouts per 9 innings rate is one that stands out as horrendous/comical. Tomorrow they send Samuel Deduno to the hill who unlike Pelfrey, Worley, and friends, has legitimate MLB stuff. The only problem is Deduno doesn't know where it's going and last season admitted as such. In 84.2 big league innings, he's walked 57 batters.
Also funny is in mid-May of last year we posted a blog on how bad Minny's starting pitching had been...
203.2 innings, 146 earned runs, 6.45 ERA, 250 hits, 38 home runs, 66 walks and 118 strikeouts
This year's numbers are eerily similar…
223.0 innings, 141 earned runs, 5.59 ERA, 308 hits, 32 home runs, 56 walks, 103 strikeouts
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| | NBA Betting Trends: Markets prefer to bet postseason games UNDER the total | A look back at the NBA totals market over the last two rounds of the playoffs. The results are dead even at 12-12-1 over/under with two games going under in regulation but over as a result of overtime. Of the 25 games, 17 were bet under the total based on CRIS’s opening and closing lines.
Indiana at Miami - 5/22
Opener: 183.5
Closer: 181.5
Result: OVER
Memphis at San Antonio - 5/21
Opener: 184
Closer: 181.5
Result: OVER (Under in regulation)
Memphis at San Antonio - 5/19
Opener: 184
Closer: 181.5
Result: OVER
Indiana at New York - 5/18
Opener: 178
Closer: 179
Result: OVER
Indiana at New York - 5/16
Opener: 179
Closer: 182
Result: UNDER
San Antonio at Golden State - 5/16
Opener: 196
Closer: 194.5
Result: UNDER
Chicago at Miami - 5/15
Opener: 183
Closer: 182
Result: OVER
Memphis at Oklahoma City - 5/15
Opener: 185
Closer: 185.5
Result: UNDER
New York at Indiana - 5/14
Opener: 180.5
Closer: 180
Result: UNDER
Golden State at San Antonio - 5/14
Opener: 195
Closer: 194.5
Result: OVER
Miami at Chicago - 5/13
Opener: 189
Closer: 185
Result: UNDER
Oklahoma City at Memphis - 5/13
Opener: 184.5
Closer: 185
Result: OVER (Under in regulation)
San Antonio at Golden State 5/12
Opener: 200
Closer: 198
Result: UNDER
Oklahoma City at Memphis - 5/11
Opener: 189
Closer: 186.5
Result: UNDER
New York at Indiana - 5/11
Opener: 184
Closer: 183
Result: UNDER
Miami at Chicago - 5/10
Opener: 188
Closer: 186
Result: OVER
San Antonio at Golden State - 5/10
Opener: 203.5
Closer: 201.5
Result: UNDER
Chicago at Miami - 5/8
Opener: 187
Closer: 186.5
Result: OVER
Golden State at San Antonio - 5/8
Opener: 205
Closer: 205
Result: UNDER
Indiana at New York - 5/7
Opener: 185 (Winner)
Closer: 184
Result: PUSH
Memphis at Oklahoma City - 5/7
Opener: 186
Closer: 188.5
Result: OVER
Golden State at San Antonio - 5/6
Opener: 203
Closer: 201
Result: OVER
Chicago at Miami - 5/6
Opener: 186
Closer: 188
Result: UNDER
Indiana at New York - 5/5
Opener: 185
Closer: 181.5
Result: OVER
Memphis at Oklahoma City - 5/5
Opener: 184.5
Closer: 186.5
Result: UNDER
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| | The end appears near for sports betting kiosks in Nevada bars | Looks to Nevada is about to pull the plug on sports betting kiosks in bars and restaurants.
The Nevada Resort Association, a trade organization that represents many of the state's largest casinos, argues the sports kiosks cross the line of slot and video poker machines. They say the should be restricted to a sports book for big casinos that hold unrestricted gaming licenses.
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| | Sports Betting Podcast 5-23-2013 with Handicappers Ian Cameron and Rob Veno | Tags: NHL MLB Ian Cameron Rob Veno
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| | NBA Betting Recap: Miami Heat pull off Game 1 overtime thriller over Indiana Pacers | Submitted by Stat Intelligence
I’m not even going to try to describe the last few minutes of regulation, or the last 10 seconds of overtime. If you watched, you saw the thrills and spills. If you didn’t, you’re not an NBA fan anyway.
Miami 103, Indiana 102 (OT)
2-Point Percentage: Indiana 48%, Miami 53%
3-Point Shooting: Indiana 4/14, Miami 5/18
Free Throws: Indiana 24/32, Miami 16/25
1’s and 2’s: Indiana 90, Miami 88
Rebounds: Indiana 43, Miami 38
Turnovers: Indiana 20, Miami 20
Whoever lost was going to be heartbroken. Whoever lost was going to have 20 turnovers! Amazing that the game winner also had 20. There was a lot for grouches to complain about here. And, if Lebron James is going to spend the rest of the playoffs whining about calls he’s not getting…then there may not be much for the public to hang its hat on.
*Tough to root for the heavy favorite, particularly when they’re constantly whining
*Tough to root for the sloppy underdog with horrible offensive fundamentals
*San Antonio should be easy to root for, but America has cast its vote on that
*Memphis is going to win ugly if they win, which won’t launch Grizsanity.
For now, Indiana has established they can be competitive in this series. They did that last year early before fading late. I've said already that I won't get emotionally invested in this series until Indiana wins a third game. Maybe we're destined for a classic. Well, an ugly turnover-filled classic with a lot of fouling and a lot of complaining about fouls not getting called. Congrats to dog bettors in this one...very solid the whole way.
Let’s update home court advantage through the playoffs…counting overtime games as a 0 margin after 48 minutes...
Average result for host after 70 games is a win of 3.5 points
Median result is a 2-point win for the host
Here’s the updated numberline…now including a 22-point win for the Spurs and two more overtime games…
2013 Playoff Victory Margin Number Line (Median in parenthesis)
Road Wins: 23-21-21-14-14-13-12-11-10-10-10-9-9-8-8-8-7-7-7-6-6-6-4-3-3
Overtimes: 0-0-0-0-0-0-0
Home Wins: 2-2-(2-2)-2-3-3-3-4-6-7-7-7-10-11-11-11-11-12-12-12-13-14-15-16-17-17-18-19-21-21-21-22-23-23-26-29-37
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| | MLB Gambling: Highly touted Baltimore rookie Gausman makes debut vs. Toronto | Baltimore (Gausman) at Toronto (Morrow) -130 O/U 9
The Baltimore Orioles don't have a great track record when it comes to developing their top arms. Brian Matusz (1st round), Chris Tillman (2nd round), Jake Arrieta (5th round), and Zach Britton (3rd round) have all failed to live up to expectations. Tonight marks yet another highly anticipated debut with 2012 first round pick Kevin Gausman set to take the hill tonight in Toronto. Gausman fits the profile of someone who should succeed at the MLB level – 6-3, 190, throws hard, three pitches, rolled through each minor league stop, amazing stats (61.1 IP, 62 Ks, 6 BBs). And while it is probably unfair to lump him in with the aforementioned list of underachievers, we still have some concerns about whether or not Baltimore can keep this kid healthy and help him develop.
“It’s really special,” Peterson said of Gausman’s performance up to that point. “When you see a guy who can pound the bottom of the strike zone – and he was even up a little bit today.
“But that along with the swing-and-miss changeup? That’s a fast track. That’s a real fast track. The guys with fastballs [and] changeups, they can fly through the system.”
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| | More proof some people just aren't cut out for gambling | Part funny, part sad as Sporting News tells the story of Danish soccer goalie Jimmy Nielsen and his career as a degenerate gambler.
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| | PokerStars poised for another run at the United States | The Wall Street Journal tackles the rise, fall, and potential rise again of online poker giant, PokerStars.
"Normally, companies who have founders who are under indictments don't go applying for gambling licenses," said Nelson Rose, a gambling law professor at Whittier Law School, in Costa Mesa, Calif.
"We have to begin to explain that we're a completely normal company," said Guy Templer, PokerStars' head of business development. "We're not a backroom shop on a rock in the sea."
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| | MLB Betting Notes: Boston's Ryan Dempster off 127 pitches, regular rest | Cleveland (McAllister) at Boston (Dempster) -140 O/U 9.5
Keep an eye on Boston Ryan Dempster this evening against Cleveland after he tossed 127 pitches in his last last. It was enough of an effort that he threw off of flat ground as oppose to the mound during a recent bullpen session. It marked the second straight outing Dempster was smacked around as his ERA jumped from 2.93 to 4.27.
"Hopefully not," Farrell said. "The game is going to unfold and is going to dictate some of that. He did travel out early today just because of our late arrival tonight. Talking with him, as far as how his arm felt coming out of his last start, he didn't feel like there was any change or lingering effect from the pitches he did throw."
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| | College Football Betting: Odds to Win the Conference | Never too early for some college football. The Greek posted a few numbers on Odds to Win the Conference. Here are the top contenders...
ACC
Miami +175
Clemson +175
Florida State +250
Big XII
Texas +200
Oklahoma +250
Oklahoma State +250
Big Ten
Ohio State +125
Nebraska +350
Wisconsin +350
Michigan State +350
PAC-12
Oregon +150
USC +250
Arizona +500
Stanford +500
SEC
Alabama -125
Georgia +300
South Carolina +500
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| | NBA Gambling: Bettors fairly even on Pacers-Heat Game 1 opinion | Here are the consensus bets for tonight’s Game 1 of Eastern Conference Finals between the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages represent the number of bets (not total handle) placed on each given wager. CRIS opened the game Miami -8.5 with a total of 183.5. The line dropped to -7.5 at a few shops (most notably Grande) before settling back at -8. Vegas residents can still get the Pacers +8.5 at Coasts. The total was bet down to 182 (181.5 at Pinnacle, 183 at South Point). Miami is -750 to win the series; Indiana +550.
Side
Miami -8 - 53.7%
Moneyline
Miami -425 - 51.3%
Total
Indiana-Miami OVER 182 - 59.8%
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| | MLB Gambling Free Pick: New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles | Submitted by Teddy Covers
NY Yankees (Kuroda) -120 at Baltimore (Hammel) O/U 9
Recommendation: Under
The Yankees have been the single most profitable road team to support in all of baseball through the first seven weeks of the season; up more than seven units of profit through their first 21 road tilts. They haven’t lost a road series since April, and are in prime bounceback position following last night’s extra inning loss at Baltimore.
Yankees starter Hiroki Kuroda was been an undervalued commodity for most of the season. Kuroda has been nothing short of brilliant for more than a month – seven consecutive quality starts, while allowing a grand total of eight runs during that entire span. The Yanks are 6-1 in those seven starts, including Kuroda’s complete game five hit shutout victory over the same Orioles lineup that he’ll face today. It’s surely worth noting that he shut down Baltimore in all three meetings against them last year (including one in the playoffs), a hot pitcher with a strong recent track record of success against tonight’s opponent.
Baltimore’s Jason Hammel is anything but hot right now; lit up for 27 hits and 17 earned runs in just 14.2 innings of work over his last three starts. His quote doesn’t inspire much confidence in an immediate turnaround today: “I’m missing out over the plate, arm-side with my fastball. It's a pretty simple fix, but for right now, it's seemingly a little bit difficult for me." With the Orioles previously strong bullpen showing signs of weakness (three blown saves from Jim Johnson over the past week), there’s plenty of opportunity for a late inning New York rally should we need it.
Follow me on Twitter @teddy_covers
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| | Sports Betting Podcast 5-22-2013 with Handicappers Ian Cameron and Teddy Covers | Tags: MLB NBA Ian Cameron Teddy Covers
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| | NBA Handicapping: Statline Data for Indiana-Miami series | Submitted by Stat Intelligence
Here are the numbers for the Eastern Conference finals, using the data that’s helped us throughout the college and NBA postseasons. If you’re new to the blog, there are regular season numbers in:
*Two-Point Defense
*Rebounding Differential
*Turnover Differential
*Made Treys per Game
*Ranking in Pace
This helps paint a picture for how the games are likely to play out given the strengths, weaknesses, and preferences of each team. Conference seedings are in parenthesis…
(3) Indiana: 44% two-point defense, +5.0 rebounding, -1.6 TO’S, 6.9 treys, #25 full season pace
(1) Miami: 47% two-point defense, -1.5 rebounding, +1.7 TO’S, 8.7 treys, #23 full season pace
Indiana was fantastic inside the arc defensively. A lot of very good teams were right at 47%, so that’s kind of off-the charts in a stat category that’s usually lumped together very tight. Indiana has a huge edge in rebounding. Some of that is because Miami will often eschew offensive rebounds so they can race back. If Miami decides to really emphasize rebounding in this series, then Indiana’s edge won’t be as big as it looks in that statline.
It’s telling to me that Indiana has a negative turnover differential even though we know they have a great defense. They have a lot of really bad ballhandlers, which gets exacerbated when their point guard is off the floor. Both teams can make treys, though Miami averaged almost two more made treys per game in the regular season. Both teams prefer a slow pace, though the media still tries to make the case every so often that Miami is a running team. It’s been a long time since that was true.
The statline at least suggests that Indiana can be competitive. A strong “defense and rebounding” combo always gives you a shot. Memphis entered with that same combo against San Antonio, and has been pretty uncompetitive. You just never know. Indiana hung tough for the first few games when these teams met last year before throwing in the towel once things went south in Games 5-6 (missed the spread by double digits in both of those games).
Here are my newest Power Rating Estimates based on market prices:
Miami 88
San Antonio 84
Memphis 84
Indiana 83
That's using an expected base of 3 points for home court in Miami/Indiana...and a projected base of 4.5-ish in San Antonio/Memphis. Miami tends to get respect on the road. Memphis has been getting respect at home. We'll see if the market shows us any tweaks in the coming days.
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| | A look back at Chris Moneymaker's WSOP win | Hard to beat to a good oral history article. Grantland just posted one on Chris Moneymaker's win at the 2003 World Series of Poker.
Moneymaker: Before I really started playing poker, I was down, overall, as a gambler. I'd say I was down about $30,000, lifetime. I might have been a losing gambler, but I was a profitable poker player. I started playing some in the casino down in Tunica, and down there, an old guy told me about online poker and I ended up getting on PokerStars.
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