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Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Baltimore Orioles

03.22.2016     09:30 AM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Alatex Sports

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Baltimore Orioles 
2015 W-L:
81-81 
2015 O/U: 73-80-9 
2015 Profits:  -3.5 units 
2016 O/U Wins (Westgate):  78.5 
2016 AL East Odds (Westgate):  8/1 
Projected Starting Rotation:  Chris Tillman, Ubaldo Jimenez, Miguel Gonzalez, Kevin Gausman, Yovani Gallardo 
Key Departures:  Gerardo Parra, Wei-Yin Chen,  Junior Lake,  
Key Additions:  Mark Trumbo, Odrisamer Despaigne, Pedro Alvarez

Handicapper's Take: "With the addition of Mark Trumbo and Pedro Alvarez, there's a lot of talk that the Baltimore Orioles are going to be a powerhouse offense this season. It's a reasonable theory considering last year's squad hit the third-most home runs in baseball (217) and had the fourth highest SLG percentage (.421). The Orioles will no doubt homer their way to plenty of wins but it's only one facet of a team loaded with shortcomings.

For starters, this team is going to strikeout a ton. Even prior to the team signing Alvarez and Trumbo, the Orioles ranked near the bottom of the league in K rate. Having players with high strikeout rates but power is fine so long as it doesn't take up a bulk of your lineup. What I do like is Baltimore's lineup balance. If Matt Wieters can get healthy, there's a healthy mix of capable left- and right-handed bats.

Defensively, I really like the infield with Manny Machado, JJ Hardy and Jonathan Schoop. They'll have to hope for the best with Trumbo in right but overall, it's a top five defensive unit which will be needed considering the entire starting rotation is pitch-to-contact.

And speaking of the rotation, it's not going to be pretty. Not one starter can be considered above AL-average. Going to war with guys who know how to pitch but boast marginal stuff isn't a 162-game solution. And they got rid of arguably their most capable arm in Wei-Yin Chen. Mike Maddux managed to reinvent Yovani Gallardo in Texas. How's Gallardo going to handle pitching without him in the AL East? And to make matters worse, there's no variety at all with five right-handed starters with similar velocity.

The Orioles have the look of an "over" team but did so last season and trended under the total (73-80-9 O/U). The addition of more power suggest that number could flip flop but it'll be accounted for by the markets and there's going to be a lot of 10-6 and 4-2 games based on the lineup’s all-or-nothing approach."

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Tags: MLB Baltimore Orioles Brent Crow




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