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Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Los Angeles Angels

03.16.2016     09:48 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers


Los Angeles Angels 
2015 W-L:
2015 O/U: 76-78-8  
2015 Profits: +2.3 Units  
2016 O/U Wins: 81.5 
2016 AL West Odds: +375 
Projected Starting Rotation: Garrett Richards, CJ Wilson, Jered Weaver, Hector Santiago, Andrew Heaney 
Key Departures:  Erick Aybar, David Freese, Chris Iannetta, Shane Victorino, Matt Joyce 
Key Additions: Andrelton Simmons, Yunel Escobar, Craig Gentry, Daniel Nava

Handicapper's Take: "There’s one stat that really stands out from the 2015 LA Angels season – their record in one run games.  LA went 35-17 in one run games, right there with Pittsburgh in the ‘winning all the close ones’ department.   Just about every single serious baseball bettor that I’ve talked to has LA pegged as a team headed in the wrong direction, primed to regress off last year’s amazing success in tight games and their third place finish, just a game out of the Wild Card spot.

Mike Trout is as good as any player in the majors.  The rest of the LA lineup is loaded with question marks; a team that, quite simply, doesn’t have many patient hitters who take walks.  Albert Pujols had a .307 OBP last year; Kole Calhoun’s was .308.  And those were the two most productive Angels on offense other than Trout!  LA acquired a new left side of their infield in a busy offseason under new GM Billy Eppler, with Andrelton Simmons at shortstop and Yunel Escobar at third.  Simmons had an OPS of .660 in Atlanta last year, while four different teams have given up on Escobar since 2010.  Neither guy is a difference maker.  The additions of Daniel Nava and Craig Gentry to play left field don’t wow advanced metric bettors either – both guys have had a negative WAR season in the last two years.  This is not a lineup primed to score runs in bunches, much like last year when LA finished at #12 in the AL in runs scored.

The pitching staff doesn’t inspire much confidence either.  Garrett Richards is a solid top of the rotation starter.  Behind him, there’s nothing but question marks.  Jered Weaver and CJ Wilson are both on the downside of their careers.  Andrew Heaney has been unable to match his minor league numbers at the big league level yet, particularly when it comes to striking out opposing hitters.  LA has depth, with Hector Santiago, Nick Tropeano and Matt Shoemaker all capable of filling a back end of the rotation spot, but this is not a staff loaded with upside.  And when we add a bullpen primed for regression after overachieving last year, the Angels clearly look at least a notch or two weaker than the legitimate AL West."

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Tags: MLB Los Angeles Angels Teddy Covers

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