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Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Minnesota Twins

03.04.2016     11:18 AM     Printer Friendly

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Minnesota Twins 
2015 W-L:
83-79 
2015 O/U: 72-78-12 
2015 Profits: +20.3 units 
2016 O/U Wins (Westgate): 79.5 
2016 AL Central Odds (Westgate):  6/1 
Projected Starting Rotation: Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson, Tommy Milone, Tyler Duffey 
Key Departures: Jordan Schafer, Mike Pelfrey  
Key Additions: Byung-ho Park

Handicapper's Take: "Minnesota was one of MLB's top profit producer last year at over +20 units of profit despite finishing four games over .500. This isn't a bad built ball club. There has been considerable effort to groom homegrown talent with Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton on the rise. And they got creative by inking first basemen/DH Byung-ho Park who showed plenty of power with a couple of 50+ home run seasons in South Korea. They've also committed to not overpaying for a stud starting pitcher but rather go to battle with a slew of middle-of-the rotation, pitch-to-contact strike throwers. It'll be a big boost if the staff can get close to 350 innings out of Ervin Santana who missed part of last year after being suspended and Tyler Duffey who in 10 starts posted 8.2 K per 9 and 3.24 FIP. And groundballer Kyle Gibson has made progress each of his first three seasons culminating in last year's sub-4.00 FIP. Schedule-wise, it looks favorable that they drew 14 games vs. Milwaukee, Miami, Philadelphia, and Atlanta. Though, it's somewhat offset with six road games against NL contenders New York and Washington. Overall, there are some things to like about this club but talent-wise, there's a ceiling. Last year, the Twins were lined right at 70 wins and were priced on average at +120 in the moneyline. The projection this year is around 80 wins which means even if they finish in the neighborhood of .500, hitting +20 units isn't going to happen. That said, the Twins have positive money-making attributes -- small market, no star power, and projectable youth. I'd rather have my money on that compared to a poorly built club like the White Sox."

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Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Andrew Lange




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