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Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: New York Mets

03.16.2016     09:44 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Rob Veno


New York Mets 
2015 W-L:
2015 O/U:  84-72-6 
2015 Profits:  +5.9 units 
2016 O/U Wins (Westgate):  89.5  
2016 NL East Odds (Westgate):  Even 
Projected Starting Rotation:  Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Zack Wheeler 
Key Departures:  Juan Uribe, Tyler Clippard, Daniel Murphy, Jon Niese 
Key Additions: Asdrubal Cabrera, Neil Walker

Handicapper’s Take: “After making it to the World Series a year ahead of schedule, there’s plenty of reason to see the high excitement and expectation level surrounding the Mets. The starting rotation is obviously loaded with a front four that figures to be favored or at worst slight underdogs in nearly every game they pitch in this season. As a team which now has immediate name recognition when it comes to Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz, you can expect inflated price tags. The two questions bettors should ask is are there flaws in this team that can be taken advantage of which will yield a profit by betting certain opposing underdogs or is this team good enough to consistently back on the -1.5 run-line which can ease the price burden of laying north of -175? The answer likely lies somewhere in between and the combination of each can be a successful option in 2016.

When you throw fifth starter Zack Wheeler into the mix you see how dominant the staff is. However, the bullpen situation is one that can potentially be problematic outside of Jeurys Familia who is now a proven lockdown closer. Mets starters have the ability to hand the ball directly to their ninth inning specialist but with the careful watch on innings pitched by this young group, the seventh and eighth inning relievers are going to get plenty of opportunities. The current middle relief corps headed by journeymen Antonio Bastardo and Jerry Blevins is vulnerable and 25-year-old RH Hansel Robles (.188 BAA in 2015) could end up being the most reliable arm. Opposing offensive game plans this season will be to run up the starter’s pitch counts and get into the New York bullpen.

The Mets offense would appear to be mediocre as presently constructed. The postseason outburst of former second baseman Daniel Murphy skewed the team’s overall body of work. Murphy’s replacement, Neil Walker, isn’t a prototype no. 2 hitter which could leave a gaping hole in the lineup. How many quality at-bats will 3David Wright be able to provide with his chronic spinal stenosis condition and can the Mets survive the massive number of worthless trips to the plate attributed to leadoff and cleanup hitters Curtis Granderson and Lucas Duda. Having a table setter duo is critical in National League play but New York’s is not ideal by any stretch. Last season’s .744 OPS showed that new  shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera is capable of his 2009-12 type production. Perhaps he can help fill the void at the top of the lineup. The Mets will need outfielders Michael Conforto and Yoenis Cespedes to be the consistent offensive producers but that’s a real question mark. In the end bettors shouldn’t ignore the fact that for a majority of last season, this was a below average NL offense."

Last year’s 90 wins but modest +5.9 units of profit was a prime example of how difficult it is to consistently turn a profit with so many high profile, elite level starting pitchers. Couple that with a historical postseason run and it become difficult to envision this as being a “bet on” squad even if they live up to expectations."

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