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Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: San Diego Padres

03.30.2016     08:06 AM     Drew Martin     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Drew Martin

copy_mlb_preview_2015].jpg

San Diego Padres 
2015 W-L:
  74-88 
2015 O/U:  93-62-7 
2015 Profits:  -19.2 units 
2016 O/U Wins (Westgate):  73.5 
2016 NL West Odds (Westgate):  20/1 
Projected Starting Rotation:  Tyson Ross,  James Shields, Andrew Cashner,  Brandon Morrow, Colin Rea 
Key Departures:  Ian Kennedy, Justin Upton,  Craig Kimbrel, Bud Norris 
Key Additions:  Fernando Rodney, John Jay

Handicapper’s Take: “Last season General Manager AJ Preller acquired a number of big name players: Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Derek Norris, Will Myers and James Shields. The “all-in” philosophy didn’t pan out as the Padres were pegged for 84 wins but fell 10 games short and lost nearly -20 units in the process. One of the biggest issues last season was allowing the long ball. In 2014, the pitching staff's HR/FB ratio was 8.6% which makes sense considering they play in the NL West and Petco Park. Last year, it jumped to 13.3% which was the second-highest mark in baseball. Shields and Andrew Cashner both flashed impressive K rates but for whatever reason posted uncharacteristically high home run rates. And when not striking batters out or allowing the ball to leave the yard, the staff was backed by one of the worst defenses in baseball. The defense is once again projected to be a problem though moving Wil Myers to first and adding Alexei Ramirez at shortstop offers the potential for a league average unit. With abnormally high home runs rates scattered throughout the staff and a abysmal defense -- and totals that were routinely 7 or lower -- the Padres were one of the strongest over teams in baseball at 93-64-7 O/U. This year I think we'll see a correction with the long ball as well as improved play defensively. Those two factors alone should result in the Padres being a far more "under" squad in 2016.”

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Tags: MLB San Diego Padres Drew Martin




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