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Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Toronto Blue Jays

03.21.2016     11:59 AM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Alatex Sports


Toronto Blue Jays 
2015 W-L:
2015 O/U: 78-73-11 
2015 Profits:  +10.5 units 
2016 O/U Wins (Westgate):  86.5 
2016 AL East Odds (Westgate):  11/4 
Projected Starting Rotation: Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, R.A. Dickey, Jesse Chavez 
Key Departures: David Price, Ben Revere 
Key Additions: Domonic Brown, Drew Storen, Jesse Chavez, JA Happ

Handicapper's Take: "Last season the Blue Jays scored a MLB-high 891 runs -- 127 more than the second-best team. This year, their production projects to be higher if they can remain somewhat healthy. Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are in contract years and looking for big days days. And the team decided to switch to a dirt infield which should play much faster and produce more hits after the numbers on ground balls for both sides showed the Rogers Centre to be very pitcher friendly last year. The biggest bugaboo for the offense is obviously age. Russell Martin is 33 and so is Encarnacion who is already dealing with injuries this spring. Bautista is 35 and while proven to be durable is a prime candidate to miss time at some point. Coupled with Josh Donaldson (30 years old), the foursome combined for over 2,500 plate appearances in 2015. Even without any season-ending injuries, it simply not reasonable to project similar volume.

Age is also a factor with the pitching staff. Mark Buehrle retired and David Price got paid by the Red Sox. R.A. Dickey, who had offseason knee surgery, saw his K rate dip almost two full punchouts last season. JA Happ has experience throwing in the Rogers Centre but showed last season that he's far better built for the National League (4.64 ERA w/ Seattle; 1.85 ERA w/ Pittsburgh). And 32-year-old Marco Estrada is primed for a regression after having one of the league's highest ERA/FIP differentials (3.13 ERA/4.93 FIP). His 8.7% FB/HR ratio is in no way sustainable considering his fly ball ways. Marcus Stroman is primed to be the team's ace and will undoubtedly be priced like one. I do however like the back-end depth with Aaron Sanchez, Jesse Chavez, and Drew Hutchison.

With an aging roster and Bautista and Encarnacion likely headed elsewhere in 2017, it's now or never for the Jays."

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Tags: MLB Toronto Blue Jays Brent Crow

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