Boston (Doubront) -130 at Seattle (Vargas) O/U 8
The lack of offense in Safeco Field has been a topic of discussion inside the sabermetric community this week as pitchers have had more than the normal success here this season. Seattle has now gone under the total in eight consecutive games and Manager Eric Wedge had a 20+ minute meeting with his club prior to batting practice yesterday to see if he could get the offense jump started. Their three runs, .231 game batting average and .590 game OPS aren’t exactly what the skipper had in mind but today looks like a real opportunity for Mariners run production to break through. Boston starter Felix Doubront has not been very good over his last four games allowing a whopping 57 total bases in the 23 inning span. The lefty has a 1.52 WHIP and 6.65 ERA in those contests with location being an admitted problem in his last start. Safeco as mentioned above has been a park that among other things eats up fly balls but Doubront’s 10 long balls yielded in his last 41 innings and at least one in eight straight games is alarming. Figure the M’s to be good for 4+ runs here against Doubront and the mediocre Red Sox pen. Seattle southpaw Jason Vargas and his fly ball ways have benefitted from his home park as his enormous number of 21 home runs allowed shows a lopsided split of 16 road/5 home. However, he has allowed all five of those in three home starts this month against the less than dynamic offenses of Oakland, the LA Dodgers and San Francisco. Boston’s lineup has done some damage to him in the past and certainly they possess the capability to do some here. The Bosox offense was on a huge 10 game tear prior to this series where they hit .306, had a .953 OPS and averaged 7.4 runs per game. Look for them to get back to that type of production today against a somewhat struggling Vargas and worn down bullpen.