SportsMemo.com
Login:
Click to Use Secure Login
All Available Packages
NOTICE: If you can not view the forum, you may need to log out of SportsMemo.com and log back in to recreate your forum session.
HOMERECAPRADIOFORUMBLOGSLIVE ODDSBESTBETSHANDICAPPERS TWITTERRSS FEEDFACEBOOKEMAIL & CONTACTS

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: An early look at the NFC West

06.13.2016     10:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I began my series of NFL Previews by taking an in-depth look at the AFC West.  This week, the focus shifts to the NFC West.  As always, I’ll present the teams in alphabetical order within their division.

The Arizona Cardinals went 13-3 SU, 9-7 ATS and 9-7 to the Over last year.  They finished +9 in turnovers; good for fourth best in the NFL.  Their mainstream stats were outstanding, finishing with the #1 offense and the #5 defense based on yardage figures.  This year, Bruce Arians squad is lined as a 9.5 win team with heavy juice to the Over.  Using the standard formula of 50 cents extra juice equating to a half a win in the marketplace, Arizona is effectively lined as a 10 win team for the upcoming 2016 campaign.

Arizona upgraded their roster in several key areas in the offseason.  Their defensive line should get a major boost with the addition of #1 pick DT Robert Nkemdiche from Ole Miss.  They acquired DE Chandler Jones from New England; just 25 years old & coming off 12.5 sack season.  Safety Tyvon Branch and offensive guard Evan Mathis weren’t sexy signings but both give Arians quality depth at positions of need.  Based on personnel moves alone, Arizona looks like a serious Super Bowl contender in 2016.

But the Cardinals have two major red flags, in my opinion.  First is that based on MY power rating numbers for the Week the games were played, Arizona faced the single easiest slate of opponents in the entire NFL last year.  When you use last year’s opponents win percentage (the lazy/mainstream way), Arizona’s schedule graded out slightly below average, but not at or near the bottom.  Right now, this team is a notch or two overvalued based on last year’s results.

And then there’s the Carson Palmer question.  Palmer had an 82.1 QBR last year, a 104.6 QB rating, an 8.7 yards per attempt average and 35 TD passes.  Every one of those stats was a career high for a 36 year old QB who played in all 16 games last year.  WR Larry Fitzgerald also set career high in catches last year in his 12th season in the NFL.  Frankly, there’s only one way for those numbers to trend in 2016...and it’s not up!

The Los Angeles Rams went 7-9 SU, 7-8-1 ATS and 12-4 to the Under last year, finishing with a +5 turnover margin despite consistently miserable quarterback play.  It’s going to be hard for the Rams to finish +5 in turnovers again this year with a rookie – Jared Goff – expected to start at QB on opening day.  And while Goff has much more upside than the likes of Nick Foles and Case Keenan, he’s going to have growing pains, like every rookie quarterback.

The Rams mainstream stats weren’t very good, finishing with the #32 ranked offense out of 32 NFL teams and the #23 ranked defense.  Based on those numbers, their seven win season last year was an overachievement. 

The Rams jettisoned some key veterans to clear out salary cap space in the offseason.  Key defenders Chris Long and James Laurinaitis were sent packing.  There are numerous holes on this roster as a result – their secondary lacks depth, particularly at safety, their offensive line looks weak, bad news for a rookie QB and their DL lacks the dominant depth of recent seasons.  That being said, the Rams have finally stockpiled some decent skill position talent if Todd Gurley , Tavon Austin and Kenny Britt can all stay healthy.

Jeff Fisher is the first NFL head coach to keep his job off four straight losing seasons since...Fisher did it with the Titans, back in the 90’s!  Fisher will get the benefit of a league average schedule this year, a much easier slate compared to what the Rams played last year.

The San Francisco 49ers fell apart in the post-Harbaugh era last year.  After three straight trips to the NFC Championship Game, the Niners fell to 5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS while going 9-7 to the Under.  The 49ers finished +5 in turnovers with the #31 ranked offense and the #29 ranked defense, based on mainstream numbers.

The Jim Tomsula era lasted only a single season, and the 49ers are clearly going to rebuild their roster over the next year or two in Chip Kelly fashion.  In Philadelphia, Kelly essentially gutted the roster by Year 2, and we can expect a 49ers team built to play power football to have issues running Kelly’s uptempo attack in his first year on the job without his full personnel in place.

The 49ers have a ton of salary cap space, but they chose not to use most of it this offseason, keeping them flexible for future moves.  That being said, this roster has holes all over the place, with a void of skill position talent and major issues on both the offensive and defensive lines.  With a QB controversy already potentially brewing between Colin Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert, it’s hard to project anything but continued struggles for this bottom feeder squad, especially with a tougher than average strength of schedule...just like last year.

The Seattle Seahawks went 10-6 SU, 8-7-1 ATS and 9-7 to the Under last year, finishing the season with a +6 turnover margin.  Their mainstream numbers were truly elite: the #4 offense and the #2 defense.  And they compiled those numbers against a much tougher than average schedule.  This year, their strength of schedule weakens considerably, facing only five games against teams that made the playoffs in 2015.

Russell Wilson was downright sick last year; making huge play after huge play while running for his life behind a dismal offensive line.   Wilson put up a 110.1 QB rating, best in the NFL.  He’s now in Year 5 and he set career highs in TDs, QBR, passer rating, YPP and completion % in 2015; an elite QB in every sense of the word.  But the Seahawks offensive line – a major issue last year – looks every bit as bad on paper heading into 2016.  Tom Cable is a genius level OL coach, but he’ll have his hands full with this iffy unit.

From a personnel standpoint, the Seahawks still look elite, despite a handful of offseason losses.  Sure, RB Marshawn Lynch retired and they lost some defensive depth.  That being said, the majority of Pete Carroll’s squad went to the Super Bowl in 2013 and 2014.  If they don’t get back to the Super Bowl in 2016, this season will be a disappointment.

 

Tags: NFL Arizona Cardinals Los Angeles Rams San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks Teddy Covers




This blog is closed to new comments.

Visitor Comments:




VIP EMAIL CLUB
Add Your Email Address:
How did you find us?


More VIP Email Options
 
Email
 
MLB
Current Blog Topics
Ted Sevransky Hot Links
Current Blog Topics
SportsMemo Ads
Daily Plays
$29
The results don't lie. Teddy has been a consistent moneymaker in the NFL over the last three seasons, cashing at a 57% clip. He's at 63% so far this season, making $$ for himself and his clients! Teddy is ready to cash in on Thursday with the Rams - Niners winner! Don't miss out on another strong winner from this proven NFL performer! This play must cash or his next report is FREE!

$39
Drew Martin is in with his highest rated game of the entire month of September! This 20* Top Shelf selection is slated to kickoff Friday night in prime time! The Utah Utes take on the Arizona Wildcats in a key PAC12 south showdown. Drew is off a 2-0 sweep of the board last weekend in college football and looks to start off this weekend with a Top Shelf (2 Unit) Game Of The Month CASH $$$. Jump on board for only $39; guaranteed to win or Drew's top Saturday college football selection is on the house.

$25
Baseball during this September's stretch run is filling the schedule with meaningful games every day and this evening Rob is zeroed in on one of those matchups releasing as a 15* Best Bet. Rob's Top Tier plays have proven to be long term ticket cashing machines as evidenced by the +79.4 units added to bankrolls since 2013. You can join him on this Thursday Divisional selection for just $25 and it must win or you will receive his next MLB report free of charge.

$29
No one does college football totals like Erin Rynning. The results are real: 58% dating back to 2012. For Friday, he checks in with a 10* selection. It's yours for only $29. It's guaranteed to cash or his next top rated play is on the house.

$29
Not a person on the planet can boast a better college football track record over the last three years than OTTO Sports with 67% winners and +40 units of profit. For Friday he comes in with a 10* selection that is WATCH and WIN! Lock in the best with OTTO for $29. It must win or Saturday's 20* play is free of charge.

$29
Ian Cameron has banked +17.7 units in College Football since the start of last season which includes a strong 13-6 68% +9.4 units so far this season in CFB. He is ready to deliver more profits unleashing a rock solid national TV winner with his 10* CFB Friday Watch & Win On ESPN2 backed by a perfect 8-0 ATS betting angle. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for just $29 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next CFB play is free.

$39
Not a person on the planet can boast a better college football track record over the last three years than OTTO Sports with 66% winners and +40 units of profit. For Saturday, he checks in with his STRONGEST PAC-12 total of the 2017 season! It must win or Sunday's NFL 20* play is free of charge.

$39
No one does college football totals like Erin Rynning. The results are real: 58% dating back to 2012 including 62% with his top rated 20* Playermaker selections! For Saturday, he checks in with another big 2-unit total; his STRONGEST in the SEC for this month. It's yours for only $39. It's guaranteed to cash or his next top rated play is on the house.

$39
Teddy delivered the perfect sweep with his 20* Big Ticket Reports last weekend and he?s just getting started. Watch & Win on Saturday as North Carolina battles Duke on ESPNU; another 'right side' 20* Big Ticket cash just waiting for kickoff! Get it now, BEFORE the line move! This play must cash or his next report is FREE!

$39
Off last year's rock solid 59% and a profitable start to 2017 thanks to three straight 20* winners, Brent Crow is back and dialed in for Week 4. His TOP PLAY for Saturday comes on a favorite that is expected to dominate start to finish. Watch and CRUSH with Crow for $39. It's guaranteed to cash or Sunday's NFL 20* is on the house.

$39
Teddy delivered the perfect sweep with his 20* Big Ticket Reports last weekend, primed to do it again this week! Take advantage of this weak total in a game that has all the makings of a wild shootout from start to finish; worthy of Big Ticket status! Get this Touchdown-Fest now! Teddy's play must win or his next report is FREE!

$39
Erin Rynning DOMINATES the NFL, especially with the 20*s having hit 61% since 2012, good for +28 units of profit. For Sunday, he comes in with a 2-unit totals selections which you can pick it up for only $39. It's guaranteed to cash or his next top rated football play is free of charge.

$39
Dating back to 2012, Andrew Lange and his clients have absolutely CRUSHED the NFL with 61% winners. That's 5+ years, over 200 selections, and better than 60% winning action. He comes in with a top rated UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH for Sunday's action. DO NOT MISS OUT! Only $39 and guaranteed to cash or his next top rated football play is free.

$39
Doesn't matter is if it is college or pro, OTTO Sports knows how to hit the BIG plays with 60% winners with his 2-unit plays over the last three years including last week's NFL 20* winner. For Sunday, he checks in with a 20* Total of the Month. It's a guaranteed winner or his next top rated football play is free.

$39
Close out your Sunday STRONG with Brent Crow's top 20* selection on the Sunday Night Football game as Oakland heads East to take on Washington. It's Crow's top play for Week 3, yours for only $39, and guaranteed to cash or his next top rated selection is free of charge.

$35
Ian Cameron has banked +17.7 units in College Football since the start of last season which includes a strong 13-6 68% +9.4 units so far this season in CFB. He is ready to deliver more profits unleashing a rock solid national TV winner with his 15* CFB Saturday PAC-12 Watch & Win Main Event. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for just $35 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next CFB play is free.

$35
Rob Veno's Top Tier plays have proven to be long term ticket cashing machines as evidenced by the +82.8 units added to bankrolls in all sports since 2013. For Saturday action he has zeroed in on a matchup that he's released as his 15* CFB Best Bet Totals Crusher. You can join him on this selection for just $35 and it must win or you will receive Rob's next report absolutely free.

$35
Rob Veno's Top Tier plays have proven to be long term ticket cashing machines as evidenced by the +82.8 units added to bankrolls in all sports since 2013. Friday Night he's zeroed in on a matchup that he's released as his 15* CFB Best Bet. You can join him on this selection for just $35 and it must win or you will receive Rob's next report absolutely free.

$39
Ian Cameron and his clients have dominated the National Football League with +24.5 units of profit in the NFL since 2015. Ian has been crushing the books with his top rated 20* NFL plays since the start of last season with a 15-6 71% record and +16.8 units winning record. He is ready to deliver another 2 unit NFL winner on Sunday with his 20* NFL Total Of The Month. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for just $39 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next NFL play is free.

$39
Ian Cameron has banked +17.7 units in College Football since the start of last season which includes a strong 13-6 68% +9.4 units so far this season in CFB. Ian is a perfect 3-0 with his top rated 20* plays in CFB this season part of a dominant 15-4 79% +21.2 units streak with his top rated 20* plays in CFB since the start of last season. He is ready to deliver another strong 2 unit winner on Saturday night with his 20* CFB Non-Conference Game Of The Month. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for just $39 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next CFB play is free.

$39
Rob Veno has carved a place for himself among the ELITE Best Bet handicappers in the country and his 20* Bluechips have been a major part of that success. Since July 2007 Rob has hit an outstanding long term 62.5% with these selections in CFB resulting in +78.2 units of profit. For Saturday Rob has released his 20* CFB Conference Total Of The Month and you can join him for just $39. This play must win or his next 20* report will be yours free of charge.


Extended Services
-----------SportsMemo-----------
SportsMemo Ads
Discussion Forum
-------------------------------------
Post Subject
Date
09.16 15:53
09.16 14:34
09.16 11:11
09.16 11:01
09.16 10:57

-------------------------------------
Current Blog
-------------------------------------
Ted Sevransky     09.21.2017 12:13 PM
Ted Sevransky     09.14.2017 1:01 PM
Ted Sevransky     09.05.2017 12:14 PM
Ted Sevransky     08.30.2017 9:27 AM
Ted Sevransky     08.24.2017 11:24 AM

More Blog Entries Submitted by Teddy Covers

-------------------------------------
-----------SportsMemo-----------





Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, and Drew Martin. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Sep 21, 2017 03:58 PM.