SportsMemo.com
Login:
Click to Use Secure Login
All Available Packages
NOTICE: If you can not view the forum, you may need to log out of SportsMemo.com and log back in to recreate your forum session.
HOMERECAPRADIOFORUMBLOGSLIVE ODDSBESTBETSHANDICAPPERS TWITTERRSS FEEDFACEBOOKEMAIL & CONTACTS

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Handicapping the NFL post-Week 1

09.12.2016     10:58 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Week 1 of the NFL season routinely tells lies.  The goal of any winning handicapper has to be figuring out which teams were lying in their Week 1 performances.

Look no further than last year for some excellent examples.  On opening day of the 2015 NFL season, the Tennessee Titans blew out Tampa Bay 42-14.  Marcus Mariota looked like a superstar, throwing four TD passes in his NFL debut and finishing the game with a perfect passer rating. 

If you bet the Titans the following week, you watched them lose outright by two touchdowns to the NFL’s worst team, Cleveland.   Mariota threw only five TD passes over the next four weeks before getting hurt.  Tennessee finished the season tied for the worst pointspread record in the NFL, cashing only three winning bets in their final 15 games.  The Titans lied to us in Week 1.

Remember when the Dolphins beat the Redskins, and covered as four point road favorites in Washington, thanks to a Jarvis Landry punt return touchdown in the fourth quarter.    Miami lost their next three games so badly that head coach Joe Philbin didn’t survive their bye week.  They finished the season, like Tennessee, with only three more pointspread covers in their final 15 games; one of which came in Week 17 against a Patriots team that was resting starters.  The Dolphins lied to us in Week 1. 

So did the Redskins, for that matter.  Washington was a four point home dog to Miami last year in Week 1.  They were three point home dogs to the Rams in Week 2, a game Washington won by two touchdowns.  By the time the playoffs rolled around, the Redskins were laying points to the Packers.  Washington was a big fat liar in Week 1 last year.

I certainly can’t forget the Monday Night Football late game in Week 1 of the 2015 campaign, perhaps the best example in recent memory of how much a Week 1 performance affects the pointspread moving forward.    Minnesota got blown off the field by San Francisco in a 20-3 loss.  The Vikings defense got abused by San Fran’s ground game while their own offense went a combined 1-10 on third and fourth downs; unable to generate anything.

The Vikings went 13-2 ATS in their final 15 regular season games, and covered the spread in their playoff loss to Seattle as well.  Following that ugly Week 1 national TV loss, the next time Minnesota lost a bet for their backers came on the Sunday before Thanksgiving.  Meanwhile, the 49ers followed their national TV blowout win by losing their next three games by a combined margin of 107-28, and had a losing ATS record thereafter.  Both the Vikings and the 49ers lied on the Monday Night Football opener in Week 1.

So, as soon as the 2016 Week 1 results were in the books, our goal should be to figure out which teams were lying.  That’s not info we’re going to find from box score analysis – only one of the Week 1 wins or losses outlined above was statistically fraudulent (Miami’s win at Washington).  The s why the markets believed what happened so sincerely that there was ATS value for MONTHS betting on or against teams that gave outlier efforts to open the season.  Stats aren’t going to help us.  There’s got to be an overriding narrative that trumps the stats!

The one team that stands out like a sore thumb in this regard is the Philadelphia Eagles.  Philly enjoyed the single biggest margin of victory in the entire NFL in Week 1; the only blowout all day.  This was a week where, were it not for the ‘meaningless’ last-play-of–the-game safety from Indy, eight of the first 14 games were decided by two points or less, or in overtime.  So there weren’t a ton of games that stood out as making any team look particularly good or particularly bad. 

I can confidently write that rebuilding Cleveland is the worst team in the NFL (even after watching the Titans on Sunday, and before watching San Fran on Monday Night).  Therefore a team that looks good against the Browns – like the Eagles sort of did – is likely to be a notch or two overvalued moving forward.  I’d take the ‘Carson Wentz Under 101 QB rating’ (his rating against Cleveland) in any remaining Eagles game moving forward, and will be looking for opportunities to bet against Philly in the short term.

What about the Jets, who found a way to lose at home against the Bengals thanks to a handful of blown coverages, a handful of blown red zone chances, a missed extra point and a missed short field goal?  New York notched seven sacks on Andy Dalton, the most he’s taken in his career, and that came without defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson on the field.  Ryan Fitzpatrick was thissssss close to converting about a half dozen big plays in the passing game; a correctable problem for a squad that averaged only 5.2 yards per pass while allowing 8.8 to Cinci. 

The markets are likely to view those passing game numbers as problematic for New York, especially given the way shutdown corner Darrelle Revis got torched by AJ Green.  And the Jets upcoming schedule is downright brutal.  They travel to Buffalo on a short week in Week 2, followed by games against the Chiefs, Seahawks, Steelers and Cardinals in their next four games.  Four of those five contests are on the highway, meaning that the Jets are likely to be underdogs in all five of those games.  The markets weren’t particularly high on New York heading into the season.  That Week 1 home loss has the potential to offer additional value on the Jets as dogs moving forward.

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




This blog is closed to new comments.

Visitor Comments:




VIP EMAIL CLUB
Add Your Email Address:
How did you find us?


More VIP Email Options
 
Email
 
MLB
Current Blog Topics
Ted Sevransky Hot Links
Current Blog Topics
SportsMemo Ads
Daily Plays
$29
Ian Cameron is heating up on the bases with a 28-19 60% current streak and over +9 units of profit over the last month. He has dominated the betting markets with his top rated 20* plays in all sports going 40-20 for 67% winning action and +35.9 units of profit with his 2 unit plays since last July. He is set to deliver the cash once again in MLB action tonight with his 20* MLB Total Of The Month. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for $29 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next MLB play is free.

$20
Teddy has cashed his MLB totals at a 75% clip dating back to the last week of April. His baseball has hit 62% over the past three weeks, playing mostly underdogs and totals; rock solid results. If you like wild, high scoring MLB games, you will LOVE this Slugfest winner! Expect some crooked numbers on the scoreboard tonight! Get it now! This play must win or his next report is FREE!

$20
Rob Veno is in the midst of an extreme bankroll building run which has raked in +22.0 units on 59.5% over the last 33 Days. Today he has released a 10* MLB Monday Top Rated Selection and you can join on this play for just $20. This selection must win or you will receive Rob's next MLB report absolutely free.


Extended Services
-----------SportsMemo-----------
SportsMemo Ads
Discussion Forum
-------------------------------------
Post Subject
Date
03.26 08:37
03.18 11:52
03.16 13:01
03.16 12:16
03.05 10:11

-------------------------------------
Current Blog
-------------------------------------
Ted Sevransky     05.19.2017 12:01 PM
Ted Sevransky     05.18.2017 1:56 PM
Ted Sevransky     05.12.2017 10:06 AM
Ted Sevransky     05.11.2017 10:34 AM
Ted Sevransky     05.05.2017 11:39 AM

More Blog Entries Submitted by Teddy Covers

-------------------------------------
-----------SportsMemo-----------





Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   May 22, 2017 10:30 AM.