SportsMemo.com
Username:
Password:
All Available Packages
NOTICE: If you can not view the forum, you may need to log out of SportsMemo.com and log back in to recreate your forum session.
HOMERECAPRADIOFORUMBLOGSLIVE ODDSBESTBETSHANDICAPPERS TWITTERRSS FEEDFACEBOOKEMAIL & CONTACTS

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Narrowing down the Super Bowl 50 contenders

12.28.2015     08:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
This is my last Wiseguy Report of the year.  That leaves me with two choices – a look back column or a look forward one. I’m a big fan of post-mortems following every NFL betting week; looking to learn from both winners and losers.  But when it comes to looking back over a whole season or a full year?  It’s harder (for me at least) to learn lessons in the aggregate; much easier when I condense those lessons down to individual games. 

After all, that’s what a season is – dozens of individual betting decisions; made one at a time.  So, while I’ve enjoyed one of the best NFL seasons of my handicapping career, there’s no point in looking back.

Sure, we can identify the worst beat of the year, that’s always fun.  I’d nominate anyone who had Lions and Under when they led Green Bay wire-to-wire on Thursday Night Football….until Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary touchdown pass with no time left on the clock that turned Lions and Under into Packers and Over.  Apologies to anyone who had St Louis plus the points at Green Bay in Week 5, a close second on my list.  But the better way to go here is to look forward; making some predictions for 2016!

So that’s what I’m going to do.  Week 17 of the NFL regular season is here, the playoffs just beyond.  My goal this week is to pick the two Super Bowl teams out of the 14 teams that are still live as I write this (Indy could get eliminated from contention with a Bengals win on Monday Night).  I’m not worried about picking the winner of my hypothetical game, just identifying the two teams that are going to get there.

Let me start with some eliminations.  Kansas City isn’t going to the Super Bowl.  While I give Andy Reid credit for engineering a remarkable turnaround, KC has been pounding one weakling after the next.  Their last six victims: the Chargers (twice), Raiders, Bills, Ravens and Browns.  KC’s only win since Week 1 over a playoff team if the season ended today came against Denver in Peyton Manning’s last game as the starter. 

Houston isn’t going to the Super Bowl.  Brandon Weeden and Brian Hoyer might get you to an AFC South title, but they’re not winning three games in January.  Pittsburgh is still very much alive to reach the postseason despite Sunday’s loss at Baltimore, but the Steelers defensive breakdowns and red zone woes will likely doom their fate.  I don’t see Teddy Bridgewater as being ready to lead Minnesota to the promised land.  Washington is an intriguing longshot, but, like Houston, winning the weakest division in your conference is not the same as dominating one of the tougher ones.   Denver with Brock Osweiler isn’t going to get there, and Peyton Manning ranked #32 out of 32 NFL quarterbacks when he was healthy over the first half of the season.  Gary Kubiak doesn’t coach his way to a ring this year.

That means, when we’re talking about the NFC, I’m talking about four heavyweights: Seattle, Carolina, Green Bay and Arizona.  And when we’re talking about the AFC, I’ve got only three heavyweights to consider: Cinci, New York and New England.   Two of the three AFC teams are too flawed for me to pick them to win – my choice is very clear.  In the NFC, however, only one of the four heavyweights has no chance, in my opinion, although a second one is flawed enough for me to eliminate them.  I’m going to cut this 14 team race down to three serious title contenders, and I’m going to do it with eliminations.

Yes, New England has the best record in the AFC.  Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and company have six Super Bowl appearances and four rings; a team that truly knows what it takes to win in January.   But the Patriots are an injury riddled mess, injuries that a bye week won’t solve.  Their offensive line is in shambles, their receiving corps decimated, their defense depleted.  Making the Super Bowl is about staying healthy as much as any other factor, and the Pats are a disaster area in that regard.

As for Cinci, I have very little interest in asking Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton to win three playoff games for me.  That duo isn’t 0-fer their careers in the postseason by accident.  And while Dalton enjoyed the best statistical season of his career before getting hurt, he still made enough horrific decisions and terrible throws in tight games to make me very reluctant to expect a perennial postseason loser to change his stripes this year. Bottom line: I don’t trust that Dalton coming off a thumb injury and a long layoff is going to step right in to the postseason mix and dominate.

That leaves me with only one team standing in the AFC – the New York football Jets.  The Jets are capable of winning in Foxboro – they’ve hung tough with New England in every meeting over the last three seasons.  The Jets have the offensive line, the running game, the receiving corps, the journeyman veteran QB with the great story, the defense – the works.  I’ll call for the Jets to make the Super Bowl from the AFC.

In the NFC, I’m going to eliminate two teams right off the bat.  While Seattle has enjoyed a strong turnaround following their 2-4 start, the Seahawks are trying to do something that history tells us is nearly impossible to do.  There have been 49 previous Super Bowls.  A team has made it to the Big Game three straight years a grand total of twice during that entire half century span – the Dolphins in the early 70’s and the Bills in the early 90’s.  I’m a big admirer of Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson, but this year’s Seahawks team isn’t as good as last year’s version, and they’ll have to go on the road three times just to get there.  Nope, can’t expect the Seahawks this year.

And Green Bay really isn’t that good; a team with more fraudulent wins than any other team this year.  By my notes, they’ve been outplayed in five of their ten victories this year, and their most impressive wins all came back in September.  The ‘real’ Green Bay team is closer to the one that got blown out in Arizona on Sunday than the one who beat Seattle and KC at home on national TV three months ago.

So that leaves me with a tough call in the NFC between Arizona and Carolina; a game I’d line close to pick ‘em on a neutral field if I didn’t have to adjust for any public sentiment.  I like Bruce Arians over Ron Rivera.  I like Cam Newton over Carson Palmer, but not by that much.  I like the Cardinals offensive line and skill position talent, but not by that much.  I like the Panthers back seven on defense, especially with pro bowler Tyrann Matthieu going on IR for the Cardinals. I like Arizona’s pass rush.  Tough call, and the good news is that I don’t have to call it right now.  Ask me when the Panthers and Cardinals play for the NFC title four weeks from now, and I should have a much stronger opinion, doing it the way I like to do it – one betting decision – one game – at a time.

Happy New Year!  Best of luck in 2016!

Follow me on Twitter @teddy_covers.

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




This blog is closed to new comments.

Visitor Comments:




VIP EMAIL CLUB
Add Your Email Address:
How did you find us?


More VIP Email Options
 
Email
 
MLB
Current Blog Topics
Ted Sevransky Hot Links
Current Blog Topics
SportsMemo Ads
Daily Plays
$20
Ian Cameron is looking to build on his lifetime +11.1 unit profitable haul in CBB since joining Sportsmemo in 2012. He is a perfect 3-0 in College Basketball since Tuesday and he is ready to unleash another rock solid national TV college hoops winner tonight with his 10* CBB Watch & Win On ESPNU. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for $20 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next CBB play is free.

$39
OTTO Sports continues to pump out winners in college football with nearly +12 units YTD. He's been an absolute MONSTER with the two-unit plays, cashing 30 of 44 in CFB since the start of last year. Close out the regular season STRONG with his top rated play for Saturday'. It's $39 and guaranteed to cash or Sunday's NFL play is on the house.

$39
Ian Cameron has a dominant track record with his 20* releases in College Football cashing at a 53-25 68% clip banking +51.1 units with his top rated 20* CFB plays since joining Sportsmemo. Ian is 11-2 85% with his 20* College Football plays this season. Ian has cashed five consecutive 20* GOY winners over the last five weeks in College Football and he is ready to unleash another strong, top rated winner on Championship Saturday with his 20* CFB ACC Championship Main Event. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for $39 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next CFB play is free.

$39
Rob Veno has carved himself a spot among the nation's elite Best Bet handicappers with his famed 20* Bluechip releases. Since 2007 Rob has posted a record of 110-68 61.8% +70.4 units with his CFB 20* Bluechip plays. For Saturday action Rob has released his 20* CFB American Athletic Game Of The Year. You can join Rob on this play for only $39 and it must win or you will receive his next 20* report at no additional cost.

$39
Brent Crow wraps up an amazing CFB regular season this week with his 20-star Big-12 Game of the Year. Brent is on a monster 19-5+15.30 side streak in CFB and is 60% overall for the season in CFB. Get this easy winner now for $39. It is guaranteed to win or his next report is yours free.

$29
No one knows totals like Erin Rynning. In college football alone, he's hit 60% of them dating back to 2011. For Saturday, he comes in STRONG with a 10* Total of the Week report. Pick it up now; only $29 and a must win or his next top rated play is free.

$49
Drew Martin is in with three CFB plays on Saturdays card. All from the non power 5 (Group of 5) conferences. He has two totals and one side kicking as part of Championship Saturday! Jump on board as Drew is starting to heat up hitting 8 of his last 11 in CFB and CBB combined. This package is guaranteed to go 2-1 or 3-0 or you will recieve Drew's 20* package kicking off Sunday.

$29
Teddy's got you covered for the Mountain West Championship Game on ESPN Saturday Night. After living in Vegas since 1998, Teddy's got strong contacts in this conference, and those sources are all pointing the same way on this game. Get onboard now and cash in riding Teddy's winner! This play must deliver a profit or his next report is FREE!

$35
Rob Veno is among the elite when it comes to his Top Tier releases raking in +43.1 units since 2014 with his 15* Best Bet & 20* Bluechip Totals in All Sports. Rob has released a 15* CFB Saturday MWC Best Bet which and you can join him on this play for only $35. This selection must win or you will receive Rob's next 15* CFB report free of charge.

$39
Teddy delivered the goods in NFL action last weekend with a 3-1 mark for himself and his clients. He has been red hot all week, heading into the weekend riding an 86% all sports run. And Teddy's NFL results have been rock solid, 79-57 58% in NFL action over the past two years. Do Not Miss his 20* Big Ticket NFL Game of the Week! This play must cash or his next report is FREE!

$39
Unmatched production in the NFL for Andrew Lange and his clients with 61% winners and nearly +44 units since 2012. Don't miss out on Lange's big 20* selection on the New York Giants-Pittsburgh Steelers game on FOX. It's a guaranteed winner or his next top rated football selection is free of charge.

$39
Ian Cameron CRUSHED the books in the NFL last season putting together a very strong winning campaign with a 32-20 record for 62% winning action and +12.3 units of profit. He is rolling this NFL season as well with a strong 28-21 record 57% for +12.1 units of profit. Ian has notched a tremendous 10-2 83% record with his NFL 20* plays this season and he is ready to deliver another top rated 2 unit winner in NFL action on Sunday with his 20* NFL NFC Game Of The Month. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for $39 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next NFL play is free.

$39
Rob Veno has established himself as one of the nation's elite Best Bet handicappers with his famed 20* Bluechip releases. Since 2014 Rob has posted a record of 131-84 60.9% +82.8 units with his 20* Bluechip plays in All Sports. For Sunday action Rob has released his 20* NFL Bluechip Game Of The Month. You can join Rob on this play for only $39 and it must win or you will receive his next 20* report at no additional cost.

$39
Brent Crow swept the board in the NFL last week and is now at 60% for the season in the NFL. He nailed his 20-star November Game of the Month on the Falcons last Sunday and he is loaded with another HUGE 20-star winner now for Sunday's action. Get this huge December Game of the Month winner now for just $39! It must win or his next top rated selection is free.

$39
Big play lined up for Sunday for Drew Martin and his clients as he checks in with his STRONGEST selection in the AFC for the month of December. Get Drew's 20* AFC Game of the Month for only $39. It's a guaranteed winner or his next top rated football selection is on the house.

$29
Close out Week 13 STRONG with Erin Rynning's 10* Game of the Week for Sunday. ER's been one of Sportsmemo's top NFL producers this year with 61% winners and over +12 units of profit. Get on board for $29. It must cash or his next top rated play is free of charge.


Extended Services
-----------SportsMemo-----------
SportsMemo Ads
Discussion Forum
-------------------------------------
Post Subject
Date
11.19 20:36
11.09 10:05
11.09 10:03
10.29 19:50
10.29 19:45

-------------------------------------
Current Blog
-------------------------------------
Ted Sevransky     11.30.2016 11:16 AM
Ted Sevransky     11.23.2016 9:02 AM
Ted Sevransky     11.20.2016 8:06 AM
Ted Sevransky     11.18.2016 8:53 AM
Ted Sevransky     11.09.2016 8:59 AM

More Blog Entries Submitted by Teddy Covers

-------------------------------------
-----------SportsMemo-----------





Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Dec 02, 2016 06:24 PM.