SportsMemo.com
Username:
Password:
All Available Packages
NOTICE: If you can not view the forum, you may need to log out of SportsMemo.com and log back in to recreate your forum session.
HOMERECAPRADIOFORUMBLOGSLIVE ODDSBESTBETSHANDICAPPERS TWITTERRSS FEEDFACEBOOKEMAIL & CONTACTS

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: The Secret Truth About the NFL

04.25.2016     08:25 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Everybody is talking about quarterbacks, with the NFL draft upcoming, starting on Thursday.  In recent weeks, both the St Louis Rams and the Philadelphia Eagles paid a steep price to move up to #1 and #2. The expectations are that California's Jared Goff and North Dakota State's Carson Wentz will go with the top two picks, although their draft order is still up in the air. 

If things go well with those two picks, the Rams and Eagles will be set up for the long term with above average quarterbacks.  If things go poorly with those two picks, the Rams and Eagles will be steady, consistent losers until the next time they draft a QB in the first round.  In fact, that’s exactly where the Rams have just been since they picked Sam Bradford #1 overall back in 2010.

The advanced metric pundits are all screaming bad deal for the two teams that traded up, and great deal for the two teams that traded down (Tennessee and Cleveland).  And the history of QB’s going #1 and #2 in the draft hasn’t seen two above average quarterbacks in those spots since 1971. 

Here’s the list: 
2015- Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota (jury’s still out on these two) 
2012- Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin 
1999- Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb 
1998- Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf 
1993- Drew Bledsoe, Rick Mirer 
1971- Jim Plunkett, Archie Manning

Tim Couch was taken ahead of Donovan McNabb in 1999, but that’s about the only instance of a #2 drafted QB outshining the guy at #1.  That list does not make the Eagles trade look particularly prescient. 

Eagles' GM Howie Roseman had this to say after already locking up Sam Braford and Chase Daniel in free agency before making the move up to #2: “You look at teams and it’s clear — you have quarterbacks or you don’t, and teams that don’t have quarterbacks are looking for them, and we don’t want to be in that position going forward. So even though we understand that we made a commitment to Sam and Chase, we went into this offseason saying we wanted to improve the quarterback situation. We don’t want to be in a situation where we’re desperate.”

The reality is that half the league – at least -- would upgrade their QB if they could.  Brock Osweiler just got $72 million from the Texans.  RG3 got $15 million from the Browns.  Remember when the sports universe went abuzz because Andy Dalton signed a $96 million dollar deal to stay in Cincinnati?  Any warm body that can throw the football even a little bit is a valued commodity.  Because the secret truth about the NFL in 2016 is that there are no quarterbacks.

Look at the serviceable quarterbacks drafted over the last ten years.  These are not the top draftees (that list looks much worse), just the ones who have gotten some playing time.  The five QBs on the list from the last two seasons all get incomplete grades – too soon to tell. 

But the aggregate result of the rest of this list isn’t very pretty! 
2015: Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston.   
2014: Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, Teddy Bridgewater.   
2013: EJ Manuel, Geno Smith. 
2012: Andrew Luck, Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, Brock Osweiler, Nick Foles, Kirk Cousins. 
2011: Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick. 
2010: Sam Bradford. 
2009: Matthew Stafford, Marc Sanchez. 
2008: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Chad Henne. 
2007: JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb 
2006: Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Charlie Whitehurst.

Look at that list closely.  Over the last ten years, there have been a grand total of three legit superstar quarterbacks to come out of college: Andrew Luck (a #1 overall pick), Cam Newton (a #1 overall pick) and Russell Wilson (the only QB under the age of 30 with a Super Bowl ring).  So basically, if you didn’t draft #1, you’ve had one chance in ten years to get an elite QB.  Hard to find that kind of needle in a haystack, isn’t it!

But it gets worse than that.  Over the last ten years, other than the three superstar quarterbacks, there have only been three other well above average players drafted: Andy Dalton, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco.  The scary thing is that the next tier guys on the list – Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford and Ryan Tannehill – look good by comparison, even though none of those three appear primed to ever lead their team to a Super Bowl.

So, we’ve got three elites, three well above average QBs, and a handful of serviceable guys coming out of the NFL draft over the last ten years.  But when it comes to first round QB’s drafted, there’s been more busts than anything: JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Blaine Gabbert, EJ Manuel, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Tim Tebow, Brandon Weeden and Johnny Manziel .  Each and every one of those guys were a ‘set your franchise back at least two or three years’ type of bust, and there were more of those guys than anybody else. 

That being said, the first rounders sure were better than the second rounders, unless you think Jimmy Clausen, Pat White, Brian Brohm, John Beck or Tavaris Jackson enjoyed productive careers.

I know, I’m exaggerating, with the whole ‘There are no QB’s thing.  That being said most of the top remaining QBs have played at least a dozen previous seasons in the NFL.  We just lost Peyton Manning.  The likes of Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers and Carson Palmer are all in or fast approaching  past their prime territory.  And there just aren’t a new crop of QBs ready to replace them.

Say you’re an NFL GM.  The history of recent quarterbacks drafted is nothing short of hideous.  The top free agent this offseason was Brock bleeping Osweiler, and he got a $72 million deal.  Chase Daniel got $21 million.  Who knows how much Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to command on the open market, or Brian Hoyer, the "top 2" remaining free agent QBs?  Neither guy has much Super Bowl upside.  And don’t expect next year’s free agent class to look much better.

If you can’t get a QB in free agency, it means that you’ve got to find a QB somewhere else.  An elite QB turns a mediocre team good (Andrew Luck in Indy) or a good team great (Russell Wilson in Seattle).  I don’t blame Roseman for paying a king’s ransom in draft picks to give the Eagles that shot, even though it’s more likely to fail than to succeed.  Quite simply, there are no other options in a league with a real dearth of talent moving forward at the quarterback position.

Follow me on Twitter @teddy_covers.

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




This blog is closed to new comments.

Visitor Comments:




VIP EMAIL CLUB
Add Your Email Address:
How did you find us?


More VIP Email Options
 
Email
 
MLB
Current Blog Topics
Ted Sevransky Hot Links
Current Blog Topics
SportsMemo Ads
Daily Plays
$29
Teddy's ready to UNLOAD in college hoops tonight, locked & loaded with his very first 20* Big Ticket Report of the season! This is a prime 'Watch & Win' opportunity on ESPN2, as Iowa seeks revenge for a one point loss to the Cyclones last year! Can the Hawkeyes hang tough or is this a spot for a comfortable Iowa State victory? Find out here, before it happens & cash in tonight! This play must win or his next report is FREE!

$29
Brent Crow is ready with an easy winner for the Thursday night Primetime matchup between the Raiders and Chiefs. He has several indicators lined up on one side and looks to continue his success in the NFL, where he has hit 58% for the season. Get this huge Thursday night winner now for just $29! It must win or his next top rated selection is free.

$20
Rob Veno is off to a solid 16-8 66.7% start with his NBA Totals this season and tonight he's focused on a game with fundamental edges strong enough to release it as his 10* NBA Thursday Top Total. You can join him on this selection for just $20. Tonight's report must win or you will receive Rob's next Basketball release without any additional cost.

$29
Ian Cameron has put together a strong 4 year run of consistent profits on the ice including back-to-back winning seasons and he has caught fire with a solid 12-5 71% streak on the ice in NHL action. He is ready to unleash his strongest December side in NHL action tonight with his one and only 20* NHL Game Of The Month. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for $29 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next NHL play is free.

$20
OTTO Sports knows the NBA as good as anyone, proven by his tremendous track record with +50.55 units on over 700 documented selections. In a sport that is becoming increasingly more difficult to beat, last year, he and his clients racked up 58% winners and over +12 units of profit. Don't miss out on tonight's 10* live underdog report. Only $20!

$20
Teddy delivered another NBA winner with Milwaukee last night; riding a moneymaking 60% NBA Run into Thursday! Expect more winning action tonight with this Live Dog Shocker, backing the superior team in a very attractive pointspread range! Get it now & cash in tonight! This play must win or his next report is FREE!

$49
Teddy is 80-59 in NFL action over the past two seasons. He is 51-38 with his Big Ticket Reports dating back to last October, delivering proven long term winning results for himself and his clients. Cash in on Sunday with Teddy's one and only 20* Big Ticket Game of the Year, the type of STRONG opportunity that doesn't come around every week! Do NOT miss this winner! This play must cash or his next report is FREE!

$39
Ian Cameron CRUSHED the books in the NFL last season putting together a very strong winning campaign with a 32-20 record for 62% winning action and +12.3 units of profit. He is rolling this NFL season as well with a strong 29-23 record 56% for +9.8 units of profit. Ian has notched a tremendous 10-3 77% record with his NFL 20* plays this season and he is ready to deliver another top rated winner in NFL action on Sunday with his 20* NFL Blowout Game Of The Month. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for $39 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next NFL play is free.


Extended Services
-----------SportsMemo-----------
SportsMemo Ads
Discussion Forum
-------------------------------------
Post Subject
Date
11.19 20:36
11.09 10:05
11.09 10:03
10.29 19:50
10.29 19:45

-------------------------------------
Current Blog
-------------------------------------
Ted Sevransky     12.07.2016 2:40 PM
Ted Sevransky     12.04.2016 8:04 AM
Ted Sevransky     11.30.2016 11:16 AM
Ted Sevransky     11.23.2016 9:02 AM
Ted Sevransky     11.20.2016 8:06 AM

More Blog Entries Submitted by Teddy Covers

-------------------------------------
-----------SportsMemo-----------





Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Dec 08, 2016 02:07 PM.