SportsMemo.com
Login:
Click to Use Secure Login
All Available Packages
NOTICE: If you can not view the forum, you may need to log out of SportsMemo.com and log back in to recreate your forum session.
HOMERECAPRADIOFORUMBLOGSLIVE ODDSBESTBETSHANDICAPPERS TWITTERRSS FEEDFACEBOOKEMAIL & CONTACTS

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Understanding the MLB Betting Markets Part II

04.04.2016     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In Part I of this article last week, I illustrated how the quants have come to dominate the MLB betting marketplace over the course of the last few seasons, completely changing the value equation moving forward.  Advanced metric starting pitching stats have become the primary basis for all baseball moneylines, leaving a market that devalues every other aspect of the game.  That leaves opportunities for alternative strategies to succeed here in 2016 and beyond.

I used several examples last week to demonstrate my point about the modern markets.  The following example is probably the best of the bunch, using the strikeouts per nine innings advanced metric stat (K/9).

In 2005, the top eight pitchers in strikeouts per nine innings were Mark Prior, Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, Brett Myers, Pedro Martinez, John Lackey, AJ Burnett and Jason Schmidt.  Six of the eight starters produced a profit for their supporters, and if you bet on the leaders in the K/9 stat for the full season you returned more than +21 units of profit from your investment.  Strikeouts per nine innings was not fully and effectively incorporated into the betting markets.

Fast forward to 2015, a decade later.  Last year, the top eight pitchers in strikeouts per nine innings were Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Chris Archer, Carlos Carrasco, Corey Kluber, Francisco Liriano and Tyson Ross.  Only one of those eight aces – Liriano – produced a profit for his supporters.  If you bet on the eight best pitchers in baseball in this key advanced metric stat, you lost more than -39 units of profit.  As this example clearly shows, strikeouts per nine innings has gone from an undervalued commodity in the betting markets to an overvalued commodity over the course of the last decade.

So, with the markets obsessing and overreacting to the advanced metric stats, what can bettors use to find an edge?  Let’s start with finding quality soft tossers; the crafty guys who don’t rely on blinding speed and who don’t get betting market respect as a result.   Last year, starters like Chris Young, Yovani Gallardo, Colby Lewis, Marco Estrada, Mike Pelfrey Alfredo Simon and Dan Haren – pitchers that the advanced metric markets hate, all with low K/9 ratios – were all solid moneymakers for their supporters.  The likes of steady veterans like Edison Volquez and Ian Kennedy don’t get bettors excited, but they’re effective major league starters, offering real value in the modern markets.

Starting pitching matchups are only one piece of the formula for beating baseball in 2016.  The most profitable non-playoff team to support last year was the 83 win Minnesota Twins.  To put Minnesota’s season (and starting pitching) into perspective, the 83 win Twins finished +20 units last year; #4 in baseball.  The 83 win Nationals cost their supporters almost 19 units, #25 in the big leagues. 

Two teams with the exact same record had a nearly 40 unit return-on-investment differential!  The 92 win division champ Dodgers cost their backers more than 11 units over the course of the season.  When a team with sub-par starting pitching can find ways to win, they’ll return a boatload of profit because the markets won’t respect what they are doing.

That’s exactly what happened with Minnesota last year, when the projected bottom feeder Twins turned into a .500 level squad.  The profit party started early.  Minnesota went 1-6 in their first seven games, outscored  45-16 in the process.  Minnesota then proceeded to go 29-13 between then and June 1st.  They cashed plus price underdog tickets in 25 of those 29 wins, and were never priced higher than -120 in any game during that entire run!  The markets fixated on starting pitching.  The Twins didn’t have any advanced metric aces, but their starters did fine, their bullpen stepped up and their lineup was clicking on all cylinders.

Which brings me to the way to beat baseball circa 2016.  I’ve got four primary metrics that I’m focusing on.  First, I’m looking for effective starting pitchers who are not respected in the markets due to low K/9 rates as described above.  Second, I’m looking to bet on teams with strong bullpens and fade teams with weaker pens that can’t hold leads.  Third, productive lineups are thoroughly disrespected while light hitting lineups are not thoroughly devalued.  And lastly, streaks are worth riding – both hot and cold – like that 29-13 Twins run last year as well as dozens of others throughout the course of the season.

When it comes to lineups, the markets really do essentially ignore them!  The Rangers, Blue Jays and Royals all won their divisions in the AL last year.  All three ranked among the top quartile of MLB teams in profitability.  And each of those teams scored more runs than anyone else in their division.  Arizona was the highest scoring team in the NL West, and despite their sub .500 record, they produced more profits than any other team in that division.  I don’t think that those runs scored vs. profit ratios were an accident. 

Now it’s time to focus on  what may be the most devalued area of all – bullpen stats.  Pittsburgh, KC and St Louis had the top three bullpen ERA’s last year – a decidedly ‘square’ stat -- with the Cubs also in the top quartile.  Those teams finished #2, 3, 5 & 6 in profitability for the full season, all bet-on teams who were major moneymakers. 

On the other end of the spectrum, the bottom six bullpen ERA’s in baseball belonged to Colorado, Atlanta, Oakland, Detroit, Boston and Seattle.  Those teams finished -13 units, -16 units, -29 units, -10 units, -6 units and -20 units respectively; a combined -94 units between them.  Identifying good bullpens and bad bullpens in April gives bettors an enormous edge, because there’s no question that the markets are undervaluing the correlation between bullpens and profits.

Lastly, I’ll write a few words about streaks; not always an easy thing to measure or to take advantage of.  As someone who has always used totals as a major part of my MLB betting repertoire, I’ve been following MLB streaks for more than a decade.  Basically, I look to bet on hot lineups, expecting them to continue to hit until proven otherwise.  Cold lineups continue to struggle until proven otherwise.  Hot bullpens are slamming the door shut.  Struggling bullpens are leaving the door wide open.  Instead of focusing solely on winning and losing streaks, I prefer to focus on lineup and bullpen streaks – the markets and the media both tend to lag behind, whereas winning and losing streaks are widely reported and they attract at least some betting market attention.

Best of luck betting baseball this year!

Tags: MLB Teddy Covers




This blog is closed to new comments.

Visitor Comments:

billydd66
04/04/2016 10:40 AM
Thanks so much for the "wiseguy" reports. Informative and fun to read!





VIP EMAIL CLUB
Add Your Email Address:
How did you find us?


More VIP Email Options
 
Email
 
MLB
Current Blog Topics
Ted Sevransky Hot Links
Current Blog Topics
SportsMemo Ads
Daily Plays
$29
Ian Cameron dominated the Canadian Football League last season when he put together a strong campaign with a 36-25 record for 59% winners and +12.8 units of profit. Ian is coming off a dominant 5-0 sweep in the CFL in Week 4 for +6 units of profit and he is ready to deliver more profits with his 10* CFL Thursday Top Play and it is backed by some strong info coming right from one of the head coaches. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for just $29 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next CFL play is free.

$20
Since 2014, Andrew Lange has released over 1,300 plays to paying customers and in return delivered an unmatched 55% winning rate. For Thursday night comes in with a 10* totals report -- his STRONGEST OF THE WEEK! Get on board for $20. It must win or his next top play is on the house.

$20
Brent Crow's top selection MLB selection for today has also been designated his STRONGEST underdog for the week. Hop on board with this BIG plus price winner for ONLY $20. It's a guaranteed winner or tomorrow's top play is on the house.

$20
Rob Veno has been on an extended ticket cashing run since late April hitting 54% and raking in 30.0 units. For action today he has released his 10* MLB Thursday Top Rated Selection and you can join him for just $20. This play must win or you'll receive Rob's next report absolutely free.

$20
Drew Martin comes in with a 10* West Coast Night Cap off the Thursday MLB card. This is a late start- He is starting to see it clearly on the bases hitting 70% since June 13th in MLB. Also, cashing his last 9 of 11 releases. Jump on board for only $20 guaranteed to cash or Drew's next MLB play is on the house.

$35
Ian Cameron dominated the Canadian Football League last season when he put together a strong campaign with a 36-25 record for 59% winners and +12.8 units of profit. Ian is coming off a dominant 5-0 sweep in the CFL in Week 4 for +6 units of profit and he is ready to deliver a strong, top rated winner with his 15* CFL Friday Main Event. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for just $35 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next CFL play is free.

Was 229, $199
It's here! Teddy Covers' famed NFL Season Over/Under Wins Report is an absolute must have for every bettor. Since 2001, Teddy has delivered a record of 79-32 71% including 12-1 92% with his 20* Big Ticket selection. The package includes two waves of selections (the first in late July) as well as detailed written analysis. Clients will be provided an exact date and time of release because these numbers WILL MOVE! And the reason is simple: It's one of Sportsmemo's most popular and successful packages! Lock in the EARLY BIRD PRICING of $199.


Extended Services
-----------SportsMemo-----------
SportsMemo Ads
Discussion Forum
-------------------------------------
Post Subject
Date
03.26 08:37
03.18 11:52
03.16 13:01
03.16 12:16
03.05 10:11

-------------------------------------
Current Blog
-------------------------------------
Ted Sevransky     07.19.2017 8:48 AM
Ted Sevransky     06.30.2017 10:37 AM
Ted Sevransky     06.29.2017 11:30 AM
Ted Sevransky     06.08.2017 11:01 AM
Ted Sevransky     06.02.2017 10:46 AM

More Blog Entries Submitted by Teddy Covers

-------------------------------------
-----------SportsMemo-----------





Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, and Drew Martin. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Jul 20, 2017 11:32 AM.