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Trying to handicap the Cleveland Cavaliers

02.07.2011     11:38 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cleveland at Dallas -14.5 O/U 206.5

Everyone in the gambling community is well aware of the Cleveland Cavaliers’ recent run of horrific play. They’ve lost 24 straight and have been a money burner a 7-16-1 ATS. But in analyzing the line movements on Cleveland’s games, there hasn’t been the feeding frenzy to “play against” most would assume. Based on CRIS’s opening and closing lines, only seven times did we see the closing number “fade” the Cavs whereas the same amount of game moved towards them. In 10 of those 24 contests, the opening and closing numbers were the same – including four straight – which suggests that the oddsmakers are working with a fairly accurate power rating.

In looking at the differential between the pointspreads and final score, 14 of the 24 games landed within five points or less of the opening line. That feat isn’t groundbreaking by any stretch – probably close to league average – but is shows for the most part that oddsmakers and the betting market are in agreement. As poor as they are, you probably wouldn’t get hurt betting against the Cavs for the remainder of the season. But if you’ve been around the NBA long enough, you are well aware that 7-16 ATS can quickly turn into 16-7 ATS. For tonight’s game at Dallas, Cleveland opened as a 15-point underdog but was bet up to +14.5. The Cavs are on a small 5-3-1 ATS run.  


Tags: Cleveland Cavaliers Andrew Lange NBA




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