Fairway’s Forecast – NFL Week 2
|09/19/2009 9:15 AM|
Week 2 of the NFL season suggests some surprises and ‘bounce back’ for teams off to a losing start. It’s difficult for teams to provide consistent winning results year after year and no doubt we’ll see a few unexpected teams start 0-2. With history as your guide, know that NFL teams that start 0-2 have a rough road ahead to secure a playoff spot. Since 1980, a total of 226 teams have started the season 0-2. Only 24 of those slow starters have made the playoffs – 16%.
This week’s NFL card features five contests with 0-1 teams playing each other, and I’ve got some strong technical and situation support on a number of games. When we combine some ‘Fairway fundamentals’ into the equation, I’ve come up with a deep card that will feature my largest weekly NFL selection service in six years of providing winners. I could certainly fire multiple 20* double unit plays this week, as there are many strong games of interest to this proven pro in week 2. But we’ll just try to take a solid swing and hit the green with our shots and provide some brief thoughts along the way.
For those that like to take a shot and rip others when the going gets rough or more losers find the ledger, I suggest you work on your own game and understand that not every week or season is filled with birdies and green. Of course, Fairway’s Football Forecast has nothing to apologize for when it comes to NFL point spread prognosis. For six consecutive NFL regular seasons Fairway Jay has produced profit and winning results. If you can provide any handicapper in the nation that has had similar success, just click on the link at the bottom of this blog and reply with that person’s name and documented record in the Sportsmemo posting forum. Easy enough. In fact, if such a winner or proven pro exists, I’d like to sign up for their selection service myself. Of course, you can start winning today with Fairway Jay; a proven performer that has documented success and chips-in a little learning for you along the way. With all the trash talk and fabricated records, it’s no wonder many sports bettors might become confused. Let’s see if we can put the puzzle pieces together this week and provide more point spread prognosis winners with Fairway’s Football Forecast.
Oakland at Kansas City (3 / 38’)
Quarterback concerns for the Chiefs with Cassel still questionable. Regardless, KC must get their ground game going after last weeks dismal 29 yards rushing and 501-176 total yardage deficit to the Ravens. The Raiders ran for 148 yards in their wire-to-wire cover against the Chargers and Oakland absolutely ran rough shed over the Chiefs last season on this field with a 300-55 rushing advantage in their 23-8 win. Similar spot with Oakland coming off a Monday night game again and Oakland’s defense appears stronger this season with the addition of DL Seymore. Recent series shows the visitor 11-1 ATS, but more importantly the Fairway ‘formula’ and fundamentals at the point of attach suggest success in the running game for the Raiders. Of course, Fairway’s proprietary data base, rushing guidelines and forecasting should point you in the right direction in this contest. Hopefully QB Russell will minimize mistakes and not blow up our plan. The Chiefs are just 2-24 SU their last 26 games and have failed to cover 10 of their last 13 on their once dominant home field at Arrowhead Stadium. Raiders rebound.
Houston at Tennessee (6’ / 41)
Ten days for the Titans to prepare for the Texans, who knocked off Tennessee last year (LY) on this field 13-12. Houston was horrible last week in their home defeat while gaining under 3.9 yards-per-play and being out-rushed by the NY Jets 190-38. Meanwhile, Tennessee averaged 5.1 yards-per-play against a stellar Steelers defense. Technical and system support for the Texans to bounce back in this division tussle, but Tennessee should be motivated, focused and able to contain the Texans ground game after slowing the Steelers rush attack (36 yards).
New England at NY Jets (3’ / 46)
Proven, profitable profile for the home ‘Dog off a SU ‘Dog win last week. Fairway’s forecast and proven parameters also suggests less scoring than expected with new coach Rex Ryan putting his stamp on this defense that was dominant in week 1. Rookie QB Sanchez looked poised and polished in his debut with support from a running game that went for 190 yards. Well aware of coach Belichick’s schemes and success against young quarterbacks and recent history points to the Patriots while the road team has also covered 7 straight in this series. But didn’t I witness a Patriots sub-par running game Monday night (73 yards / 3.2 ypr) and see New England trailing by 11 points in the closing minutes before escaping with a miraculous win? Don’t see such fortune this week, and if Brady has to pass from the pocket over 50 times again this week I assure you he’ll be pressured more heavily and on his back more often. New England’s defense has questions and holes to fill with LB Mayo now out. Following New York’s impressive performance and road win, expect them to be sky high at home. J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets.
Cincinnati at Green Bay (9 / 42)
Contrary call here with the ‘Pack off an emotional late comeback win over division rival Chicago while the Bengals blew a game few could believe in the closing seconds. That miracle TD by Denver countered a late TD drive and return to health of Cincinnati QB Carson Palmer. The Packers impressive offense in preseason play was slowed by Chicago with just 226 total yards. Four Bears turnovers turned the tide, and while the Bengals running game managed just 3.2 ypr last week, they are familiar with Green Bay’s 3-4 defense having faced it often in the AFC North. Cincinnati’s young, improved and underrated defense led by solid linebackers can keep them within double digits.
Minnesota at Detroit (+10 / 45)
Impressive start for the Vikes and the leagues best running back Adrian Peterson. They pounded Cleveland in the second half and piled up a league best 225 rushing yards in week 1. Now they face the leagues worst defense from last season and the Lions allowed the Saints to roll up 515 yards and 45 points last week. However, not interested in laying doubles on the road in the NFL, especially in division play. Vikings QB Favre may not have to do much again with Detroit’s defense allowing 157 yards rushing last week and over 5.0 ypr to backup RB Bell. Scoring expected and Detroit has gone ‘over’ 17 of their last 22 contests while Minnesota is 8-2 ‘over’ their last 10 road games. On paper, this has the potential to be the week’s single biggest rushing differential, which of course would put the percentages strongly in your favor to cash the green with the Vikings. Recall last year however that the Vikings were a double-digit favorite in both games over the winless Lions and won by just 2 and 4 points despite strong stats in the running game that included over 100 yards rushing by Peterson in each contest. Of course, no. 4 Favre was not under center.
New Orleans at Philadelphia (+1 / 46)
The NFC’s best QB Brees threw six TD’s last week and balanced in a solid rushing attack. Tougher task this week traveling to Philly and facing more pressure and blitzing from all angles. Still, with unproven QB Kolb taking over for injured McNabb, I don’t envision the Eagles being able to outscore the Saints in a projected higher scoring contest. Saints defense will improve under new coordinator Gregg Williams, who has developed attacking 4-3 defenses that put heavy pressure on the quarterback. That could be problematic for Kolb, just as it was last week for Stafford, who threw three INT’s and was sacked three times. Fairway forecasts the Saints as a super bowl contender and the team to beat in the NFC South.
Carolina at Atlanta (6 / 42’)
How ugly was that pathetic performance by the Panthers and QB Jake Delhomme last week? Seven turnovers, five sacks, four INT’s and just 7/17 passing for 73 yards by Delhomme. Atlanta’s weakness is in the secondary, but fortunately, they’ll face another anemic passing game this week. Carolina may have a solid two-headed running game, but with no fear of a passing attack, teams will just stack the box and force Delhomme to beat them. Unlikely, and while many pundits are projecting a bounce back from the Panthers and noting coach Fox’ 28-14 ATS record as road ‘Dog, I’m not buying that puppy chow. Fairway forecasts a potential blowout with the Falcon’s getting their own ground game untracked against the Panthers defense that allowed 185 rushing yards last week and nearly 6.0 yards per carry. Atlanta was +4 in the turnover column last week to assist in their dumping of the Dolphins 19-7. No surprise if they create and benefit from more Panthers mistakes this week. Need I remind you that home teams in the NFC South went 27-5 SU last year including 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS in division games. Falcons fly.
St. Louis at Washington (9’ / 37)
Tough travel East for the Rams following a shutout in week 1 and taking on the Redskins in revenge mode following last season’s 19-17 St. Louis shocker as 12-point ‘Dog. That game was also played in Washington, and last I checked the Redskins had scored more than 17 points just three times in their last 12 games. Sure, we’re including last season’s results, but during that stretch Washington’s high-scoring mark was 25 points – against the NFL’s worst defense of Detroit. New Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo knows the Redskins personnel well from his time as the Giants defensive coordinator. More scoring struggles may be in store for the ‘Skins and QB Campbell could cause another coach his job in Washington. His fumble last week resulted in a defensive TD and the offense managed just 200 total yards until the game was out of reach in the final two minutes. Go ahead and remind me how bad the Rams were last week and I’ll toss some technicals at you that say Washington is just 9-18 ATS as a home favorite of 7 or more points off a SU loss and 1-8 ATS at home in September versus an opponents off a SU loss. Okay, before you say ‘Fairway fundamentals’ and Washington will wax ‘em, I also have some game 2 situations and systems that work against Washington to the tune of 13-36 ATS and 6-24 ATS. Add in subsets of 4-19 ATS and 1-16 ATS and you have all the ammunition you need to ‘back off’ the Redskins and consider the contrary call on the Rams. Teaser bettors think this one will be ‘easy’ moving the Redskins down to 3 or 3.5. Everything you read says the Redskins will rout the Rams. Fairway’s forecast says you’re forewarned. Survivor pool players beware. The nation’s capital could become chaos should this become the upset special of the week.
Arizona at Jacksonville (3 / 42’)
The defending NFC champs fell victim to a ‘upset’ 49’ers team and we cashed a nice ticket on the San Francisco as part of our 4-2 week 1 side report. Arizona once again struggled to run the ball with just 40 yards rushing. The Jaguars would seem to have an advantage in that department this week, until you realize they are trying to break in a pair of rookie offensive tackles. Problems persist with the Jags sieve secondary that could get torched by Warner and his dynamic WR duo of Fitzgerald and Bouldin (hamstring, check status but likely plays). The Cardinals were 0-5 ATS playing in the Eastern Time Zone last year and the early start could prove problematic again. But before you take off the rubberband and jump on the Jaguars, know that their offense managed just 11 first downs and 228 total yards last week. That was good enough for us to cash a ticket in their 14-12 defeat at Indianapolis, but review those systems and subsets in the above mentioned Washington example and know that the Jaguars fit firmly into a similar situation this week.
Seattle at San Francisco (1 / 39’)
San Francisco did manage just 3.4 yards-per-play last week in their road win at Arizona. However, must credit coach Singletary and his defense for their effort and intensity in clamping down on the Cardinals and their productive offense from a season ago. The 49er’s return home and will face a less skilled Seahawks defense that should allow new QB Shaun Hill more chances for success. Improved offensive line should give RB Gore more room on the ground this week while Seattle’s ground game runs into a stingy San Fran defense and plays without center Chris Spencer and All-Pro tackle Walter Jones again this week. Linebacker Lofa Tatupu is likely out as well. San Francisco suffered their worst defeat of the season last year at home to Seattle 34-13 despite out-gaining the Seahawks 388-261. Quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan never saw the field again and Shaun Hill took over to lead the 49er’s to a 5-3 finish in the second half of the season. Payback Sunday at Candlestick Park.
Tampa Bay at Buffalo (5 / 42)
Tough to feel confident supporting either of these teams this week. I projected plenty of problems for Tampa Bay this season and we cashed a road favorite winner last week when the Cowboys crushed the Bucs 34-21. But hidden inside the numbers was a Bucs rushing attack that ran the ball for 174 yards and 5.6 ypr. It would appear more success is in order with the Bills having to replace injured MLB Paul Posluszny (broken arm). However, Tampa’s solid center Jeff Faine was injured (triceps) late last week and that’s a pretty big blow to an offense that must rely on their running game with incompetent quarterback Byron Leftowich at the controls. Here’s how significant running the football successfully is in the NFL. Last week, teams that rushed for 150 or more yards went 6-1 SU and ATS. The lone loser? Tampa Bay. Teams that rushed for 175 or more yards went 4-0 SU and ATS. These are not one-week wonder stats. Last year, NFL teams that rushed for 150 or more yards in a contest went 81-22 SU (79%) and 71-28 ATS (72%). Of course, it gets stronger as you run for more yards. Teams that ran for 175 or more yards went 49-10 SU (83%) and 43-13 ATS (75%). I have some strong rushing guidelines I look for and while the Bucs had success last week, the fact they lost suggests problems since they did not have any turnovers. The Bills blew their chance badly to pull the upset of the week over the Patriots Monday night. Buffalo is not a trusting favorite in this price range, but Tampa’s injuries combined with a lack of confidence in QB Leftowich and his travels to this location with a rookie coach has me backing off the Bucs even with some strong systems, subsets and situations against the Bills.
Cleveland at Denver (3 / 39)
No interest in this contest, as I need more points to back the Browns on the road while Denver has been a big money burner at home going 3-17 ATS as home favorite. Both teams were unimpressive in their season opener and I won’t try to impress you by figuring out which team will have fewer mistakes. Coaching familiarity may favor the Browns with coach Mangini, as he was on New England’s staff for five years before taking over the Jets for three seasons while new Denver coach McDaniels ran the offense of the Patriots. Pass.
Baltimore at San Diego (3 / 40)
San Diego’s high-powered offense stalled some last week before a last second score by Darren Sproles allowed them to escape with a win over Oakland. Now RB Tomlinson is out with a sprained ankle however Sproles is more than capable of making plays. Meanwhile, Baltimore ran rough shed and carved apart a Chiefs defense for 501 yards that included 198 yards on the ground. Joe Flacco passed for over 300 yards and the Ravens piled up 32 first downs; a rare feat throughout a NFL season. Look for continued production against a Chargers defense that allowed 366 yards to the Raiders and could not contain their running game. The Ravens were very solid road warriors last season while the Chargers are 22-5 SU and 18-9 ATS the last three years playing at home in San Diego. I prefer more scoring than projected with situations, systems and solid form suggesting an ‘over’ the total winner.
Pittsburgh at Chicago (+3 / 37’)
Lets do some comparison line shopping. Last week Green Bay was a 3-4 point home favorite over Chicago. Now the Bears are a 3-point home ‘Dog, which suggests that they would be about a 9-point road ‘Dog if they played the Steelers in Pittsburgh. This has the makings of a dandy home ‘Dog and ‘bounce back’ by the Bears and QB Cutler. Pittsburgh’s defense still appears dominant, although the Titans ran for 86 yards in the opener and held the Steelers to just 36 yards rushing. Tennessee was able to pressure QB Roethlisberger throughout and sack him four times in a 13-10 overtime defeat. Chicago just slowed down a potent Green Bay offense to 4.4 yards-per-play and cost themselves a victory due to a 4-0 turnover differential. The loss of MLB Urlacher is damaging to the Bears, but Pittsburgh SS Polamalu being out of action is more costly and significant. Devin Hester could be the difference maker again, but it’s up to QB Cutler to minimize mistakes and make plays so the Bears can bounce back. Fairway’s forecast says the Bears will bark as a home ‘Dog.
NY Giants at Dallas (3 / 45)
Sunday night special features a NFC East showdown and the official opening of the Cowboys new $1 billions stadium. The Cowboys should be fired up, but the holes in their run defense is a concern for this contest. Few teams run the ball better than the Giants behind their powerful and massive offensive line. New York was more dominant than the final score and stats last week, and a repeat performance suggests an outright road win. The Giants have a stronger offensive and defensive line and are 13-4 ATS as road ‘Dog in recent seasons. Romo and Roy (Williams) could connect again in a Texas-sized shootout that should see the Giants in a few ‘no huddle’ offensive sets with QB Manning plenty capable of calling plays and reading deficient defenses in a ‘up tempo’ attack.
Best wishes this weekend as you shoot for more winners and green. If you find yourself in the rough and struggling with your shots, enlist the services of a proven pro that has produced profits in six-consecutive NFL seasons. Email me your thoughts – firstname.lastname@example.org or call the office today for best rates and details at 1-800-575-3069 and we’ll work on our game selection management and producing more winners together.