| Dana Lane Baseball 6/29/2012 |
Fri, 29 June 2012 10:14  |
 DanaLane
Messages: 414
Registered: June 2012 |
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Record: 9-7 56.25% +0.50 units
Major League Baseball
4:10 Philadelphia Phillies (36-42) at Miami Marlins (35-40)
Line: Miami -110/7.5 u-20
Weather: 85 Degrees / partly cloudy
Injuries: Phil- Ryan Howard (Out)
In two days the Miami Marlins will once again be able to turn the page on the month of June. A month that for two years now has devastated the franchise hopes for a post-season appearance. The Marlins now stand 6-18 for the month and 11-41 over the last two June's, which included the team losing the most games ever in a single month (23) last season. Crippling for a team that won a franchise high 21 games in May.
This will be the Phillies first trip to the new park but they certainly have enjoyed success against the Marlins historically. Over the last 29 meetings the Phillies are 22-7 against Miami.
In the Marlins last 21 games they have have been outscored 136-65 with a .191 avg with runners in scoring position.
Although struggling, Phillies starter, Cliff Lee, has had recent success against the Marlins. Last September he pitched 9 innings racking up 12 K's in a 2-1 (10) victory and last June he pitched a 2 hitter in a 3-0 Philadelphia victory.
Marlin starter, Josh Johnson, is 1-3 4.08era, in his last six starts against Philadelphia including a pounding in April at Citizens Bank. He allowed 6ER, 11H over 3.2IP in a 7-1 loss.
Phillies bats seems to have come alive again scoring 51 runs over their last 10 games. Chase Utley is expected to be back in the line-up today which should give a boost to a line-up that hasn't exactly been producing when Lee is on the hill.
FYI Statistics: Phillies are 40-19 last 59 Friday games
Play: Philadelphia Phillies +100 over Miami Marlins
@danblackdiamond
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| Re: Dana Lane Baseball 6/29/2012 |
Fri, 29 June 2012 10:57  |
ajwat297
Messages: 1367
Registered: September 2009 |
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I considered this play too. Then I did the research, which is what eloozhun was saying with respect to Johnson. 8/9 quality starts with the lone game that missed due to throwing just 5 innings.
My fear for you in this game is that you are basing things on past performances that may not be relevant.
Cliff Lee was dominant in 2011 and was shutting down everyone. He is different this year and has an ERA over 6 in his last 3 starts.
The numbers you are using for Johnson on the other hand may be too harsh. He got beat up in his 2nd start this year coming back from missing essentially all of 2011. His three previous starts vs. Philly he allowed 1 ER in 23 innings. The other two starts that you have used in your analysis were in 2009 - hardly relevant at this point.
I have no action so I will be rooting for your success, but you are on the worse pitcher on the road with a pick 'em price ...
Follow me on twitter - @ajwat297
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| Re: Dana Lane Baseball 6/29/2012 |
Fri, 29 June 2012 11:19 |
DanaLane
Messages: 414
Registered: June 2012 |
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I completely agree with you except I really try not to put a huge weight on only one aspect of a team (SP). Sometimes when a team/pitcher are on a cold streak you can still see life in them but in this case the Marlins are playing without passion in their game. Previous results really don't matter but in some cases I think it gives an edge to a starting pitcher regardless of circumstance.
[Updated on: Fri, 29 June 2012 11:57]
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| Re: Dana Lane Baseball 6/29/2012 |
Fri, 29 June 2012 14:45 |
ebemiss
Messages: 1264
Registered: January 2007 |
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Johnson is pitching better than Lee looking at the last 7 or 8 starts. Ajwat297 & eloozhun are right on the money with this. However there is more to the game, when deciding on a play, than starting pitching but I feel Johnson has been better lately.
Here are Cliff Lee's starts. Take a look at his last 7. Only 1 start with 2 er or less.
http://edbemiss.com/index.php?option=com_pitchlog&task=l oad_magic&magic=1
Here are Josh Johnson's starts. In his last 7 he's given up 2 or less er 5 times.
http://edbemiss.com/index.php?option=com_pitchlog&task=l oad_magic&magic=2
I give a projected won/loss stat based on how a pitcher pitched each game, my version of a quality start,. Johnson would be 4-2 last 7, Lee 1-1. Lee hasn't been Lee of late.
I hate the quality start stat that's why I've kind of created the projected w/l stat. If you look at Johnson's 2 starts back he went 6 ip and gave up 2 runs. Great , right. Wrong in my opinion, he gave up 8 hits and 4 walks. Lucky he only gave up 2 runs.
I give a player a projected win based on these factors and independent of their team's run support. Must go at least 5 to get a projected win.
5 ip 1 er allowed, game rating >=40
6 ip 2 er allowed, game rating >=40
>=7 ip 3 er allowed, game rating >=40
Thought I'd share. Don't think you have any advantage with Lee the way the pitchers have thrown the last month but other factors including how bad Miami's been may even that out.
[Updated on: Fri, 29 June 2012 15:00]
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| Re: Dana Lane Baseball 6/29/2012 |
Fri, 29 June 2012 18:13 |
TarHeel
Messages: 1916
Registered: February 2012 |
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Cliff Lee has now allowed 5+ runs in 3 consecutive starts
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