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» Main » Sports Memo Main Forum » Live College Football Round-Table Wed June 22nd

Live College Football Round-Table Wed June 22nd

Tue, 21 June 2011 11:07

Ian Cameron
Messages: 1635
Registered: October 2008

Member

I heard Tim mention the Sportsmemo online posting forum roundtable talking College Football on Wednesday which just happens to be my regular day off work so name the time and I should be able to take part in it. Smile

Terrific idea and I'm looking forward to it. Are you planning on making this College Football forum a weekly event Tim or just a one time thing?

[Updated on: Wed, 22 June 2011 13:53] by Moderator

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Re: Sportsmemo College Football Online Forum Roundtable

Tue, 21 June 2011 15:00

eroc0435
Messages: 14
Registered: April 2011

Junior Member

Here are the latest lines. Check out some of the changes. Some are huge:

Week 1
Away Home Odds/Line Movements
TULSA OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA -21 bet down to -20
LSU OREGON OREGON -3 bet down to -2 (Neutral Game - Dallas)
BOISE STATE GEORGIA BOISE STATE -6 bet down to -1.5
MIAMI-OHIO MISSOURI MISSOURI -20.5
SMU TEXAS A&M TEXAS A&M -17 bet down to -16
MIAMI-FLA MARYLAND MIAMI-FLA -3.5

Week 2
Away Home Odds/Line Movements
MISSOURI ARIZONA STATE ARIZONA STATE -3 bet up to -4
ALABAMA PENN STATE ALABAMA -9
MISSISSIPPI STATE AUBURN -3.5 MISSISSIPPI STATE bet to -1
SOUTH CAROLINA GEORGIA SOUTH CAROLINA -3 bet down to -2.5
NOTRE DAME MICHIGAN -2 NOTRE DAME bet to -3
BYU TEXAS -7.5 TEXAS -7.5
UTAH USC USC -8
TCU AIR FORCE TCU -6.5 bet down to -1.5

Week 3
Away Home Odds/Line Movements
LSU MISSISSIPPI STATE LSU bet +1 to -3
OKLAHOMA FLORIDA STATE OKLAHOMA -3.5
OKLAHOMA STATE TULSA OKLAHOMA STATE -8
MICHIGAN STATE NOTRE DAME NOTRE DAME -6
WEST VIRGINIA MARYLAND WEST VIRGINIA -3 bet up to -4
UTAH BYU -2.5 BYU -2.5 bet up to -5
TENNESSEE FLORIDA FLORIDA -13.5 bet down to -11.5
AUBURN CLEMSON CLEMSON -1 bet up to -6

Week 4
Away Home Odds/Line Movements
MISSOURI OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA -13 bet up to -14
ARKANSAS ALABAMA ALABAMA -11
LSU WEST VIRGINIA LSU -4 bet up to -4.5
TULSA BOISE STATE BOISE STATE -24 bet down to -22
OKLAHOMA STATE TEXAS A&M TEXAS A&M -6
NOTRE DAME PITTSBURGH NOTRE DAME -4 bet up to -5
USC ARIZONA STATE ARIZONA STATE -3
SAN DIEGO STATE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN -8 bet up to -9
FLORIDA STATE CLEMSON FLORIDA STATE -7 bet down to -5.5

Week 5
Away Home Odds/Line Movements
SMU TCU TCU -12 bet down to -11
ALABAMA FLORIDA ALABAMA -6
ARKANSAS ALABAMA ALABAMA -6
AUBURN SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTH CAROLINA -7.5 bet up to -9.5
NEBRASKA WISCONSIN WISCONSIN -2.5 bet up to -3
MISSISSIPPI STATE GEORGIA GEORGIA -3.5 bet up to -5.5

Week 6
Away Home Odds/Line Movements
OKLAHOMA TEXAS OKLAHOMA -8 bet down to -7.5
FLORIDA LSU LSU -5.5 bet up to -7.5
AUBURN ARKANSAS ARKANSAS -7.5 bet up to -9
MIAMI-FLA VIRGINIA TECH VIRGINIA TECH -7 bet down to -6
ARIZONA STATE UTAH ARIZONA STATE -2
CONNECTICUT WEST VIRGINIA WEST VIRGINIA -13.5 bet down to -12.5
AIR FORCE NOTRE DAME NOTRE DAME -10 bet up to -11
GEORGIA TENNESSEE GEORGIA -3.5
MICHIGAN NORTHWESTERN MICHIGAN -4 bet down to PK
TCU SAN DIEGO STATE TCU -6.5 bet down to -5.5

Week 7
Away Home Odds/Line Movements
SAN DIEGO STATE AIR FORCE AIR FORCE -3 bet up to -4
ARIZONA STATE OREGON OREGON -11
OKLAHOMA STATE TEXAS TEXAS -3
FLORIDA AUBURN FLORIDA -1 bet up to -3
MICHIGAN MICHIGAN STATE MICHIGAN STATE -3.5 bet up to -7
SOUTH CAROLINA MISSISSIPPI STATE SOUTH CAROLINA -1.5
UTAH PITTSBURGH PITTSBURGH -4 bet up to -6
LSU TENNESSEE LSU -9.5 bet down to -8.5

Week 8
Away Home Odds/Line Movements
AUBURN LSU LSU -9.5 bet up to -11
OKLAHOMA STATE MISSOURI MISSOURI -2.5
WISCONSIN MICHIGAN STATE MICHIGAN STATE -1
USC NOTRE DAME NOTRE DAME -4 bet up to -5
MARYLAND FLORIDA STATE FLORIDA STATE -16
AIR FORCE BOISE STATE BOISE STATE -20
TENNESSEE ALABAMA ALABAMA -21 bet down to -19
PENN STATE NORTHWESTERN PENN STATE pk

Week 9
Away Home Odds/Line Movements
CONNECTICUT PITTSBURGH PITTSBURGH -10
BYU TCU TCU -7 bet down to -3.5
STANFORD USC STANFORD -2
MISSOURI TEXAS A&M TEXAS A&M -7.5
NORTH CAROLINA STATE FLORIDA STATE FLORIDA STATE -14.5
MICHIGAN STATE NEBRASKA NEBRASKA -7.5
GEORGIA FLORIDA GEORGIA +3 bet to -1
SOUTH CAROLINA TENNESSEE SOUTH CAROLINA -10.5 bet down to -7.5

Week 10
Away Home Odds/Line Movements
TEXAS A&M OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA -7.5
LSU ALABAMA ALABAMA -9
SOUTH CAROLINA ARKANSAS ARKANSAS -4
NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA NEBRASKA -12

Week 11
Away Home Odds/Line Movements
ALABAMA MISSISSIPPI STATE ALABAMA -7 bet up to -8
OREGON STANFORD OREGON -1
TCU BOISE STATE BOISE STATE -13.5 bet up to -14.5
MIAMI-FLA FLORIDA STATE FLORIDA STATE -7.5
AUBURN GEORGIA GEORGIA -4.5 bet up to -9
FLORIDA SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTH CAROLINA -6
NEBRASKA PENN STATE NEBRASKA -1
TEXAS MISSOURI MISSOURI -2
NOTRE DAME MARYLAND NOTRE DAME -7.5 bet up to -8.5
TENNESSEE ARKANSAS ARKANSAS -14 bet down to -13

Week 12
Away Home Odds/Line Movements
USC OREGON OREGON -11
MISSISSIPPI STATE ARKANSAS ARKANSAS -9
NEBRASKA MICHIGAN NEBRASKA -1 bet up to -3
BOISE ST SAN DIEGO STATE BOISE ST -17.5
CALIFORNIA STANFORD STANFORD -12

Week 13
Away Home Odds/Line Movements
TEXAS TEXAS A&M TEXAS A&M -7
PITTSBURGH WEST VIRGINIA WEST VIRGINIA -6 bet down to -4
ARKANSAS LSU LSU -4.5
ALABAMA AUBURN ALABAMA -8 bet up to -12
NOTRE DAME STANFORD STANFORD -6.5 bet down to -4.5
FLORIDA STATE FLORIDA FLORIDA -1
PENN STATE WISCONSIN WISCONSIN -7 bet down to -6
MARYLAND NORTH CAROLINA STATE NORTH CAROLINA STATE -6.5
MICHIGAN STATE NORTHWESTERN MICHIGAN STATE -3.5 bet down to -2.5
GEORGIA GEORGIA TECH GEORGIA -6.5
MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI STATE MISSISSIPPI STATE -12 bet down to -10
CLEMSON SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTH CAROLINA -12 bet down to -11
OREGON STATE OREGON OREGON -14
UCLA USC USC -6.5 bet up to -7.5

Week 14
Away Home Odds/Line Movements
OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA STATE OKLAHOMA -2

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Re: Sportsmemo College Football Online Forum Roundtable

Tue, 21 June 2011 15:03

Tim_Trushel
Messages: 2969
Registered: July 2005

Member

Conversation will be centered around our "earners and burners" for the upcoming 2011 season.

We'll be answering your questions too so make sure you're ready to fire away.

Two sessions:
9 AM - 10 AM (PT)
12 PM - 1 PM (PT)

We expect to make this a regular scheduled event similar to our football live blog on Saturdays.

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Re: Sportsmemo College Football Online Forum Roundtable

Wed, 22 June 2011 06:44

redmon
Messages: 1566
Registered: May 2007

Member

i just got my Phil Steele 3 days ago. I am way behind sched. Probably should order my Blue Ribbon as well.

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Re: Sportsmemo College Football Online Forum Roundtable

Wed, 22 June 2011 09:02

AndrewL
Messages: 2286
Registered: November 2006

Member

All right, we are going to start our CFB discussion. Feel free to ask any questions or share opinions.

I'm going to start it out with a team I consider to be a "riser" and that is the Minnesota Golden Gophers:

I like Jerry Kill and think he’s defensive/run-first philosophy is a good fit for a program looking for a quick turnaround. Gray is going to offer more options at quarterback than Weber. The biggest thing is the defense should be better. The year before Kill got to NIU, the Huskies allowed 30.8 ppg. With 11 starters back in his first year in DeKalb, they allowed 18.0 ppg. I don’t think we’ll see that big of a turnaround but if Minnesota can somehow become league average, they won’t be too far removed from Illinois, Purdue, Northwestern, Michigan, etc. We know the talent is there: they beat Illinois and Iowa and lost to Northwestern by one. But they also lost to South Dakota which shows the program was lacking mental toughness, something I think Kill will immediately improve.

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Re: Sportsmemo College Football Online Forum Roundtable

Wed, 22 June 2011 09:04

AndrewL
Messages: 2286
Registered: November 2006

Member

In looking at Minnie's schedule, I like that they'll likely be dogs in their four Big Ten home games (Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois) -- which all come after the bye week and after the halfway point -- allowing time to adjust to Kill and get Gray acclimated.

[Updated on: Wed, 22 June 2011 09:05]

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Re: Sportsmemo College Football Online Forum Roundtable

Wed, 22 June 2011 09:12

Ian Cameron
Messages: 1635
Registered: October 2008

Member

Anyone from the crew have thoughts on two SEC teams that I consider pointspread earners this upcoming season: Mississippi State and Tennessee.

Both teams enter with stable, familiar coaching structures and systems. Both teams have more experience this season with their starters (including returning QB's Tyler Bray for TEN and Chris Relf for MSST) and both teams should have improved line play this season. It all adds up to ATS success for both the Bulldogs and Vols in 2011 IMO.

[Updated on: Wed, 22 June 2011 09:18]

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Re: Sportsmemo College Football Online Forum Roundtable

Wed, 22 June 2011 09:15

Rob_Veno
Messages: 4146
Registered: July 2005

Member

I'll stay in the same conference as you Andrew and call for Purdue to be an "earner" this season. 4-8 ats last year with a slew of critical injuries to their skill position players. The losses forced them to develop QB Rob Henry whose running ability and leadership were surprising and welcomed. He teams with Robert Marve who is now healthy to give the Boilers a solid tandem at QB. The return of RB Ralph Bolden (ACL last year) to operate behind a veteran OL should open things up for the passing game. The return of Justin Siller at WR (hurt for a portion of '10) gives them a perimeter playmaker who will demand attention and free up the other receivers. Defensively they lose pass rusher deluxe Ryan Kerrigan but they return 9 defenders and allowed only 3.6 per rush last season. The entire secondary is back and should be very good versus a schedule full of ?able throwing QB's. Like this team (if they stay healthy) to go 8-4 or 9-3 against the number this season.

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Re: Live College Football Round-Table Wed June 22nd

Wed, 22 June 2011 09:17

Marty Otto
Messages: 7717
Registered: April 2006

Member

Earner: SMU Mustangs.

Probably won't garner a boatload of attention in the market. They were not profitable ATS last season and finished just .500 SU. Also lost their bowl game to Army which could leave a lasting impression of mediocrity with some.

But June Jones has just about everyone back and by some accounts will add the conference's top recruiting class to the mix for depth.

If they play up to their accu-stat numbers of last season again this year I would expect to see a very favorable ATS result.

I'd be interested in them plus the points at Texas AM and TCU. If Southern Miss and Tulsa are moderately high favorites I'd be looking to SMU there as well.

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Re: Live College Football Round-Table Wed June 22nd

Wed, 22 June 2011 09:18

Tim_Trushel
Messages: 2969
Registered: July 2005

Member

Tennessee potentially has the best quarterback returning in the conference.

At 6'6" and 210 pounds Bray completed 55 percent of his passes for 1,849 yards and 18 touchdowns to 10 interceptions as a freshman.

He improves behind that line, Tennessee is certainly a wildcard in the wide open east.

Georgia feeling the heat.

[Updated on: Wed, 22 June 2011 09:19]

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Re: Sportsmemo College Football Online Forum Roundtable

Wed, 22 June 2011 09:19

AndrewL
Messages: 2286
Registered: November 2006

Member

Bobano,

Teddy mentioned in his Golden Nugget GOY blog that Mississippi State was one team that some bettors were fading.

From Teddy: Mississippi State won nine games last year, its best season in more than a decade; culminating with a 52-14 blowout over Michigan in the Gator Bowl. They return every key skill position player and their senior quarterback. Head coach Dan Mullen spurned other offers, deciding to stay in Starkville after being given a hefty raise. I can explain the rationale behind most of the teams that were bet on and bet against at the opener, but the money that came against the Bulldogs was a real head scratcher to this bettor!

http://www.sportsmemo.com/blogs/view/?name=Teddy-Covers-repo rts-on-Golden-Nugget-NCAAF-openers-Part-II&blog_id=7223

As Teddy pointed out, the fade was a little surprising. Still waiting for a competent quarterback to show up in Starkville though.

[Updated on: Wed, 22 June 2011 09:20]

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Re: Live College Football Round-Table Wed June 22nd

Wed, 22 June 2011 09:20

Tim_Trushel
Messages: 2969
Registered: July 2005

Member

SMU

I played this team right all year...got some good breaks and bad beats, but had a good feel for SMU. Marty is spot on with this team. The improvement must come at the quarterback spot...with fewer sacks and mistakes.

REPEAT...It is okay to throw the ball away.

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Re: Live College Football Round-Table Wed June 22nd

Wed, 22 June 2011 09:21

Ian Cameron
Messages: 1635
Registered: October 2008

Member

Good call Marty. I was high on SMU prior to last season but it ended up being a very subpar campaign. A defense that regressed and a QB that did as well. Saying it was not a banner year for QB Kyle Padron would be an understatement.

That all being said, I also expect a bounceback season for the Mustangs and for Padron. I really like their main RB too Zach Line also returning for them this season. He is a real terror in between the tackles. He should be able to rack up some miles on the ground this season.

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Re: Live College Football Round-Table Wed June 22nd

Wed, 22 June 2011 09:22

Marty Otto
Messages: 7717
Registered: April 2006

Member

I was just about to say Padron really does get me fired up when watching him. Needless mistakes really cost that team. Overall -12 in turnover margin. Improve that and this will be a killer team.

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Re: Live College Football Round-Table Wed June 22nd

Wed, 22 June 2011 09:24

Ian Cameron
Messages: 1635
Registered: October 2008

Member

Tim_Trushel wrote on Wed, 22 June 2011 09:20

Couldn't be more true. Underthrown balls leading to INT's and poor reads haunted Padron last season and the inability to just throw the football away when he was under pressure instead of throwing into traffic. I think after some offseason work with a very good head coach in June Jones, we'll see the Kyle Padron resembling the one we saw a couple years ago--the one that torched Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl at the end of that season.

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Re: Sportsmemo College Football Online Forum Roundtable

Wed, 22 June 2011 09:24

AndrewL
Messages: 2286
Registered: November 2006

Member

Team I think that is going to struggle: Louisville

Lost 25 seniors, only one o-line returning starter. Talk of playing true frosh at o-line because of depth problems. Secondary has issues as well with a couple of key losses. Schedule is much more difficult: 3 home/4 away in Big East and Kentucky and North Carolina on the road. It's still the Big East which means no one is dominant and "random" tends to happen a lot but I just don't seem this team making big gains in Strong's second season. I was shocked to see them listed above Syracuse and Rutgers on odds to win the conference.

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Re: Sportsmemo College Football Online Forum Roundtable

Wed, 22 June 2011 09:27

Ian Cameron
Messages: 1635
Registered: October 2008

Member

Burner: UTEP

They may be priced like a bad team from the start but I just don't see anything good coming from this outfit in 2011 or from this very porous head coach. I've never been a Mike Price fan.

Completely rebuilt on the offensive line which isn't good news when breaking in a new starting QB.

I don't expect much improvement from a defense that was bad enough last season. Overall, look to fade this Miners team or just stay away.

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Re: Sportsmemo College Football Online Forum Roundtable

Wed, 22 June 2011 09:28

Rob_Veno
Messages: 4146
Registered: July 2005

Member

Bobano: I'm going to agree with you on Mississippi State. Feel like QB Relf will improve on his passing numbers this season with game breakers Chad Bumphis (lost to injury late last season) and Brandon Heavens returning. Love the fact that backup soph QB Tyler Russell saw extensive action last year with some success. Offense is diverse and well balanced because teams will have to respect the ground game with sr. RB Vick Ballard and his 968 ry back. The OL is in great shape as is the DL and secondary. Like this team to be a factor in the West and "earner" this season.

Although I like them, the problem I have with UT is the loss of the senior WR's Moore & Jones plus TE Stocker. QB Bray is very talented and could be the second most talented QB in the league but it's tough to tell if all that experienced talent was the reason he had such a great freshman season. Those guys could get open, catch the ball and make game breaking plays...don't know if that's true about this season's group of young receivers. After being used to dropping back and throwing vertical routes for huge gains last season, it will be interesting to see if Bray forcing things and makes mistakes if success doesn't come immediately. Opponents will stack the line against RB Poole and throw blitz schemes at this offense consistently until the Vols force them out of it. Think this team is better than many believe it is and wouldn't be surprised if they cash in on being undervalued but to me Mississippi State is more of a sure thing where cashing tickets this season is concerned.

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Re: Live College Football Round-Table Wed June 22nd

Wed, 22 June 2011 09:29

Tim_Trushel
Messages: 2969
Registered: July 2005

Member

Andrew---What's back on defense? for Louisville

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Re: Sportsmemo College Football Online Forum Roundtable

Wed, 22 June 2011 09:33

Ian Cameron
Messages: 1635
Registered: October 2008

Member

Earner: Maryland

I know first year head coaches at a new program means system and scheme changes but Randy Edsall has my utmost respect and confidence after watching him work his magic with UConn last season.

Good exp on the O and D Lines. QB Danny O'Brien showed glimpses of potential last season and now will have his first full season as a starter. They do have a tough schedule with a lot of their tougher conference foes like GA Tech and FSU on the road and they may not match the SU record they achieved last season but from an ATS perspective, I expect a competitive Terrapins team led by a head coach who quite simply...GETS IT!

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