| NIT Betting Trend |
Tue, 13 March 2012 12:19  |
 AndrewL
Messages: 2237
Registered: November 2006 |
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Often times we assume power conference teams that get "snubbed" from the NCAA Tournament and sent to the NIT don't really want to be there. But often times these "snubbed" teams are rewarded with home games and the turnaround from conference tournament to NIT is so short, there isn't much time to sit around and sulk. I went back the last five years and took the top 2 seeds from each NIT "pod" which ends up being eight teams total. Sort of arbitrary, but you figure past those eight are teams that didn't expect to be in the NCAA Tournament anyway or are mid-majors. For example, last year's no. 3 seeds were Dayton, Colorado State, Missouri State and Oklahoma State.
With those eight teams, I took a look at their first round games (almost all of which were at home with the exception of Boston College who was shipped to McNeese State last year) and then the overall results. Keep in mind, the overall numbers are skewed some as a lot of these teams eventually played one another. What I came up with was pretty surprising. From a straight up perspective, our top eight teams went 37-3 SU and a respectable 24-16 (60%) ATS in the first round and 90-37 SU and 69-56 (55%) ATS overall. I can remember one of the three first round SU losses off-hand – last year St. Mary's was beat at home by a very talented Kent State squad.
I don't think it is a trend you should bet blindly – I know I don’t want to support Seton Hall and Washington tonight. But it is clear that in lot of cases, we are seeing obvious mismatches and class differences and teams (our top eight) that while disappointed end up showing up and getting the job done – especially in the first round. In some cases the lines are shaded in anticipation of what some would feel is a "let down" spot (see: two-point line move AGAINST Seton Hall tonight) for these top teams but the results show it happens a lot loss that most, including myself, would have predicted.
2012 Top 2 Seeds (Note that No. 2 Dayton is at Iowa)
No. 1’s: Seton Hall (vs. Stony Brook), Washington (vs. UT-Arlington), Arizona (vs. Bucknell), Tennessee (vs. Savannah State)
No. 2’s: Dayton (at Iowa), St. Joe’s (vs. Northern Iowa), Miami (FL) (vs. Valpo), Ole Miss (vs. Illinois State)
NIT Top 2 Seeds Results
2007
1st Round: 7-1 SU, 3-5 ATS
Overall: 20-7 SU, 14-12 ATS
2008
1st Round: 8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS
Overall: 21-7 SU, 17-11 ATS
2009
1st Round: 8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS
Overall: 20-7 SU, 16-11 ATS
2010
1st Round: 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS
Overall: 14-8 SU, 11-10 ATS
2011
1st Round: 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS
Overall: 15-8 SU, 11-12 ATS
1st Round Five Year Total: 37-3 SU, 24-16 ATS
Overall Five Year Total: 90-37 SU, 69-56 ATS
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| Re: NIT Betting Trend |
Wed, 14 March 2012 09:36  |
Teddy_Covers
Messages: 4757
Registered: July 2005 |
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There's another NIT betting trend -- first round games over the total, after teams play looser against unfamiliar opponents with little scouting time to prepare a defensive game plan.
The markets were all over the overs yesterday, pushing every single NIT total up from the opener. Those bettors were rewarded with a 6-3 mark to the Over last night.
All seven NIT games tonight have already seen a deluge of Over $$.
The CBI was just as profitable for Over bettors on Tuesday: the three CBI games all flying Over the total by double digit margins; a combined 74 points Over the closing totals.
Four of the five CBI games for tonight have seen big upward movement on their totals. The lone exception is Wyoming-North Dakota State; a matchup that has acutally produced a small trickle of Under money.....
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