| UEFA Champion's League Semifinals, Tues./Wed. |
Mon, 16 April 2012 21:17  |
 TarHeel
Messages: 1918
Registered: February 2012 |
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Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid on Tuesday
Chelsea vs. Barcelona on Wedesday
I'm tempted by three bets (overs seem square..):
TOTAL o2½ (REAL MADRID vrs FC BAYERN MUNCHEN)
FC BAYERN MUNCHEN +155
TOTAL o2½ (FC BARCELONA vrs CHELSEA FC)
Both home teams know that they face incredibly daunting tasks in the second legs, so I think playing for the low-scoring draw is out of the question. Now pretty much out of the Bundesliga race, Bayern Munich have amazing goal-scoring form at home, and combined with Cristiano Ronaldo's nose for goal? At least three goals seem imminent... I like a 2-1 Bayern victory.
Chelsea have got to be tired after their FA Cup match, in which they put 5 goals past Tottenham. If you take a look at each squads scorelines from Champion's League ties, there are many, many goals to be had here. I expect a Barca win, but I think Chelsea gets at least one home goal, giving us over 2.5.
I haven't placed any bets yet...what do you think?
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| Re: UEFA Champion's League Semifinals, Tues./Wed. |
Tue, 17 April 2012 08:01  |
TarHeel
Messages: 1918
Registered: February 2012 |
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Just looking at first legs, Semifinal results:
In 2011, Man U beat Schalke away 2-0 and Barcelona beat Real Madrid away 2-0. Barcelona beat Man U 3-1 in the final.
2010, Bayern beat Lyon 1-0 at home, Inter Milan beat Barca 3-1 at home. Inter beat Bayern 2-0 in the finale.
2009, Man U beat Arsenal 1-0, Barca and Chelsea tied 0-0 and the final was a Barca 2-0 win over Man U.
Not sure about the statistical relevance though, because I don't know how many goals each side scored in the lead-up to the semi-finals, so we can't be sure if the results were greater or lesser number of goals than the team's average through the tournament. Also, in many cases, a first leg of 1-0 led to a second leg semifinal of 3-2 or vice versa (For instance in '09, Man U won 1-0 at home, then 3-1 at the Emirates or in 2010, Inter 3-1 1st leg, 0-1 2nd leg v. Barca)
So I guess the answer is (with a relatively narrow historical view) that the first leg semifinal results trend towards lower scoring affairs. What we don't know is if those teams just scored less goals throughout the competition, or if the pressure of the semi's created a tighter, more defensive game. Perhaps the best bet is to stay away? A draw in the first leg also seems completely possible, hmmm....
[Updated on: Tue, 17 April 2012 08:02]
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| Re: UEFA Champion's League Semifinals, Tues./Wed. |
Tue, 17 April 2012 08:52 |
rock19912002
Messages: 573
Registered: October 2011 |
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I'm staying away from the total on this match...I am however going with the team I think is better, top to bottom, & that's Real Madrid +165. They are better & I can not justify laying money on a team that can't even win their domestic league (also must mention no team has ever made it to the final when they are the host stadium in the competition. Bayern's stadium is location for Finals this year)...good luck!
[Updated on: Tue, 17 April 2012 08:54]
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| Re: UEFA Champion's League Semifinals, Tues./Wed. |
Tue, 17 April 2012 09:51 |
TarHeel
Messages: 1918
Registered: February 2012 |
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I can't pick a side with any confidence here. On the one hand, I think Real Madrid is probably the better team overall. But they are still battling for the La Liga title, leaving them possibly a tad bit distracted. Bayern playing at home is something I simply can not bet against. In looking at recent history, they almost never lose on home turf in European competitions. Neither team will want to concede first, but I think that could make all the difference in this one. Update: After seeing the line-ups, my lean would to be Bayern at PK.
I'm still sticking with my initial thought and my money is going to go towards TOTAL o2½ (REAL MADRID vrs FC BAYERN MUNCHEN)
This game could go into the 80th minute as a 0-0 draw, but with Kaka, Ronaldo, Ozil, Robben, Benzema, Ribery, Gomez.... the list goes on and on, I just think a one unit play on the over is worth my time and money. All it takes is a PK call to go one way, or Ronaldo to line one up from inside 30 yards, or a moment of magic from Robben....and I think this game blows open.
[Updated on: Tue, 17 April 2012 11:08]
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| Re: UEFA Champion's League Semifinals, Tues./Wed. |
Tue, 17 April 2012 12:03 |
TarHeel
Messages: 1918
Registered: February 2012 |
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And 16' in Ribery slams a beauty home. Let's hope the intensity and fire that both teams are playing with continues.
Update:
At 53' Ronaldo completely wastes a 1 v 1 with Neuer, but finds redemption when the ball comes back across the face of goal from Benzema and he slots it over to the German Ozil for a touch into the net! 1-1
No ties today, unless it's 2-2, c'mon!
[Updated on: Tue, 17 April 2012 13:00]
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| Re: UEFA Champion's League Semifinals, Tues./Wed. |
Wed, 18 April 2012 13:39 |
TarHeel
Messages: 1918
Registered: February 2012 |
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Whew, Chelsea...I'm not sure how much that game was decided by Chelsea's skill or luck, but Di Matteo continues to impress. Barca hits the crossbar and the post, but Chelsea comes away with the win and doesn't concede a single away goal to Barca. Wow.
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