Today's play is almost as much of a play against as it is a play on with the Jays +125. The Jays have split the season series with the sox 4-4 and well both teams are avg. and the pitching matchup is almost even to most.
The Jays start Rickey Romero who is 8-1 and pitching better than recent numbers progress. In his last outing at Florida 4er but that was when the team had an early lead 6-1 and he was pitching to contact and not walking many which I watch he has some good bite on his pitches when he bared down. Overall in his last 3 starts vs. the Sox Romero is 3-0 23 ip 20br 7er and a 16-5 k/bb ratio. In his only outing this season 8.1 5er 1er.
The Sox send Jon overrated Lester to the hill who basically is the ACE or ISN'T the Ace he should be depending on who you want to beleive. I am in the NON ACE category to me he is a 2b-3 who can pitch well. However pitching in Friendly Fenway is not so friendly for lester this season with 5.66 era 1-3 record 32 runer 30er 1.57 whip and only a 2.25 gb/fb ratio at home. Overall the last 3 season Lester is a combined 14-13 at america most beloved dump of a ballpark. Over the past . season the ERA is about a run + higher at home also.
I do not trust the Jays Pen at all hence last nights debocal. So I am taking Romero and the Jays +125 on the 5 inning line.
Interesting side not is Rob Drake is avg giving up 11rpg this eason and is usualy around 8.5 but one thing that as not changed much is he is definatley someone who gives the road team a fair shake.
Home teams are 6-9 this season were 18-15 last season and 18-16 the year before.
Last 2 season 24-24 last 3 42-40 you can't get a more fair shake than that.