Ian Cameron Messages: 1635 Registered: October 2008
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LOL I'm afraid Adam is correct. Yes I'm providing a CFL handicapping service for another website for the 2012 CFL season and will also be providing College Football service when that season begins and yeah my Twitter is @bobano and all the information about it will be there.
I will drop in a couple of leans here throughout the CFL season for all the great Sportsmemo posting forum members. Here are a couple that I have for tonight in the CFL and I appreciate you remembered my CFL picks being posted here in the past lapensee.
7:00pm - Saskatchewan Roughriders @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats: Hamilton -7
The Tiger-Cats were going to be a service play for me at the opening line of Hamilton -5.5 but now at -7 the value has diminished significantly. It's never easy for me to ask any team to win by more than a TD. I bet it when it opened at -5.5 and would still lean that way at -7 but that is all. I don't want any part of this road underdog because the thing that worries me most from a Saskatchewan perspective about tonight's game is their defense and my fear they could be unable to get many stops tonight against a very potent Ticats offense. Saskatchewan allowed an average of 26.8 ppg last season on defense and gave up 33 points to Hamilton last year in their lone meeting at Ivor Wynne Stadium and that was against a Hamilton offense that in my mind will not be as good or as deep as this year's Tiger-Cats offense.
The Riders defense didn't undergo much improvement in the offseason making this a very tall task right out of the gate for their stop unit to slow down this Hamilton attack. Saskatchewan's offense should so some improvement this season but Hamilton has made no secret based on the comments from head coach George Cortez that they want to throw the football often and spread the ball around to their bevy of talented receivers. I have a hard time believing Saskatchewan can keep pace with Hamilton for 60 minutes offensively on the road.
10:00pm - Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ BC Lions: Winnipeg +7.5, Under 51
I'll be honest in saying that Winnipeg is not high on my "CFL teams to bet on" list early in the season. That being said, given the situation for tonight's game and the inflated pointspread, I'm willing to lean slightly to the Bombers here. This is a Grey Cup revenge setting for Winnipeg after they got dominated by BC 34-23 in the 2011 Grey Cup. I would expect the Blue Bombers to enter this game tonight as the far more motivated team and may take this one more seriously than BC might.
That being said, why is this just a lean and a small "loose change" bet for me personally? Because the talent gap this season between these two teams might even be wider than it was last year. Winnipeg did not look good in the preseason. Their offense was hit or miss with Buck Pierce under center and their starting defense which was spectacular in 2011 showed signs of regression in both of their two preseason games. They lost veteran DL Doug Brown to retirement and key LB Marcellus Bowman will begin the season on the sidelines out with an injury. That's bad news facing BC which should rank right up there with Hamilton and Montreal as arguably the best and most potent offense in the CFL anchored by Grey Cup MVP QB Travis Lulay.
I also lean Under 51 in this contest because BC's defense is underrated and it's the forgotten element of that team a lot of the time. They allowed a stellar 21.4 ppg last season and look to be every bit as good on that side of the football in 2012. They have a terrific secondary which doesn't give up many big plays. They are solid on run defense which matters quite a bit tonight considering Winnipeg's starting RB Chris Garrett is out with an injury and the Blue Bombers are not deep at RB this season. I'd expect them to struggle to score tonight and they'll need their defense to keep them in tonight's game.
In the end, I expect BC to win but it's too many points to lay in Week 1 especially against a revenge minded foe like Winnipeg and motivation could be on the road team's side here. Keep in mind Week 1 underdogs in the CFL have gone 17-3 ATS in the last five years and that is a trend I do not take lightly and that dog trend in Week 1 is another reason why the aforementioned Hamilton bet was just a small one for me. So I'll lean here to Winnipeg +7.5 and for the game to stay Under the total.
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