| Interview with former Wall Street guy headed to LV to bet on bases |
Fri, 29 June 2012 20:50  |
 Iceman
Messages: 520
Registered: March 2011 |
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It's the June 27th show- hour 3 of the Damon Bruce podcast.
Basically a former wall street guy feels that he can model baseball games (he figures to bet 85% of the games) and is moving to LV to bet on them.
He calls this a "hedge fund" with lots of investors and also investment money from the book publisher that he is writing for (anyone remember the book "The National Football Lottery" by Larry Merchant? One of my favorite books ever).
He says their bankroll for the project totals over 6 figures and could be up to 7 figures overall.
http://www.knbr.com/ShowsSchedule/DamonBruce/tabid/1749/Defa ult.aspx
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| Re: Interview with former Wall Street guy headed to LV to bet on bases |
Fri, 29 June 2012 21:42  |
AndrewL
Messages: 2235
Registered: November 2006 |
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I listened to some of the show -- I'm not a "computer guy" so I can't really relate to that style of betting. He may have an shot at success based on his financial and statistical background but it seems that if you were going to try something like that, baseball would be the last sport you'd use.
I did hear the "85 percent" claim and making a lot of small bets which to me immediately raises a red flag as to whether or not his "model" is going to work. With so much info out there, no one, no matter how ingenious, is going to have enough of an edge over the betting markets to win long term by betting on "85 percent" of MLB games. He also used the term "degenerate" when touting what makes his system so special which I think is bush league. He made it sound like the guys he'll be going up against aren't aware of juice/value/house edge. Like showing up a Rucker Park after one season of YMCA ball in suburban Albany.
Follow me https://twitter.com/LangeSportsmemo
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| Re: Interview with former Wall Street guy headed to LV to bet on bases |
Sat, 30 June 2012 07:10 |
AndrewL
Messages: 2235
Registered: November 2006 |
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Whoa.
| LVKINGS wrote on Sat, 30 June 2012 06:47 |
http://www.predictem.com/nfl/ats-records.php
I GUARANTEE you that with a bankroll of even 75 k I could consistently win without even really having to cap. If you look at the chart on the link and take Over/Under marks for each team you can very easily chase down profits with little risk. The same would hold true against the spread. If you take a team like Green Bay and played them till they hit an over it wouldnt have taken you very long to cash. If you have a large bankroll and someone willing to take the bet you can always beat the law of averages. You could apply this situation to many throughout sports. Twins/Yankees for example. Yeah you had to lay a big price to back the Yanks and they lost game one in the first series they played this year. But there was pretty much a 99.9% chance you knew that the Twins werent gonna sweep the Yanks at Yankee stadium. If you have the roll, all you had to do was come back hard on game 2. The possibilities are endless as well when it comes to futures. You could have backed Phoenix in the NHL playoffs to win the cup or conference for that matter at a huge price and hedged your way to a profit regardless of the outcome.
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Follow me https://twitter.com/LangeSportsmemo
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| Re: Interview with former Wall Street guy headed to LV to bet on bases |
Fri, 08 March 2013 10:22 |
LVKINGS
Messages: 3170
Registered: August 2008 |
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Didn't lose, I'll crank it up again as soon as MLB starts and do a full season version (thru August). Haven't taken one nickle out of my pocket to bet in the last 5 years, it's all good.
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