| AFL week 18 - thoughts |
Wed, 04 July 2012 12:01  |
 xmenehune
Messages: 197
Registered: October 2005 |
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Friday
CLE @ORL
CLE D last week came up big with 4 TDs, don't think they'll do the same this week, but they'll get the stops they need for CLE to win. ORL QB Leak has up and down weeks, he played UP last week, so this week he'll be challenged by CLE D. CLE & under, lean more on CLE
MIL @JAC
Unsure of who MIL will start @QB, MIL as a team lost steam last week, I think they're done for the year. JAC really needs win to stay in playoffs. JAC & UNDER, leaning more on UNDER
UT @ARI
This should be a whale of a game with total 130's+ and taking points seem more prudent. UT & OVER, lean on UT, ARI has WR shuffle at the moment
Saturday
TB @PIT
a ho-hum game, TB QB Nick Hill is a lot better than either PIT QB Hines or Randall. PIT had a miracle 4thQ last week. I don't think miracles occur two weeks in row, TB and over, TB is easily the better play
IOW @KC
another ho-hum game. Tough loss for IOW last week, KC may have QB Gutierrez start, but it won't matter. KC can only win with more home cooking. Total seems a bit high, so IOW and under. IOW seems to be the better play
NO @SJ
NO & SJ coming off huge wins, I'm thinking NO O will have a bigger letdown and NO D will allow 60+pts. SJ and UNDER, leaning more on SJ
Sunday
SAN @CHI
another big game, thinking SAN and OVER, lean more on OVER, I was thinking about taking pts, but SAN should win (their D is playing very well), the game could go CHI way(since they are at home), thus OVER the total is much more attractive
SPO @PHI
For SPO this is their playoff game(arenabowl game) and they got caught last week taking to many chances (SPO QB Rowley ints), SPO should come out looking to challenge PHI. PHI O has been playing well and their D has been curious at times. I'm thinking PHI D will play vanilla coverages, thus allowing OVER the total to occur. Take the points and SPO, but lean more on OVER
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| Re: AFL week 18 - thoughts |
Fri, 06 July 2012 11:50  |
xmenehune
Messages: 197
Registered: October 2005 |
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MIL @JAC
noticed line is moving toward MIL -1
it just doesn't make sense
JAC should be favored by at least standard -3
if there were a money line on JAC, I would wait for the + to get higher
I just don't think MIL QB (either Guidugli [ who seems to have lost "it" ] or Boyd [ who has yet to start ]) will be able to win on the road.
MIL will have 4 new starters (@DB, FB, WR , DL)
JAC will have to plug two spots, but all there guys have experience, can't say that about MIL, just an odd line move to me
[Updated on: Fri, 06 July 2012 11:51]
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| Re: AFL week 18 - thoughts |
Fri, 06 July 2012 15:22 |
scott w
Messages: 1115
Registered: July 2005 |
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Took JAX -1 and could not understand why it moved to JAX +1.
Now sitting at JAX -6.5.
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