| Run line experiment |
Wed, 18 July 2012 08:00  |
 ajwat297
Messages: 1365
Registered: September 2009 |
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I had a brief conversation in one of the Dana Lane threads with respect to run lines. Last night he was on the White Sox +1.5 and would have won another 0.70 units had he just played the dog straight up.
I firmly believe that playing +1.5 will be a losing proposition in the long run, but am curious about how making more -1.5 wagers would turn out. If someone could point me in the direction of where I can look back at what run line odds were it would be great.
I made some tweaks to my handicapping in June and have good data going back 2 weeks. There have been 27 games in which I lined a team at -150 or better before looking at historical performances vs. said team (essentially looking at current pitcher form and some overall team stats that I use - I probably only played a fraction of those games). In those games the teams have gone 20-7 and would have profited 9.65 units. The runline, however, would have gone 15-12 and I would have needed to average a +140 line in order to make the same amount.
I am going to track these situations in this thread as I am curious as to where things would shake out. Just ignore it if this is nothing but noise to you.
Record 0-0 (0-0)
NY Yankees +120 (-160)
Cincinnati +170 (-130)
LA Dodgers +180 (-120)
The bracketed lines and record are how the moneylines would have performed.
Also a side note, I chose -150 as that would be a 60% winning percentage and that with the fact that only 15% of games this season have ended with the favourite winning by exactly 1 run this would lead to winning 51% of all games = profit assuming I am getting a plus price most of the time.
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| Re: Run line experiment |
Wed, 18 July 2012 09:36  |
AndrewL
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I look forward to what you find. I personally don't make many run-line bets. With offense down -- and I don't have the numbers in front of me -- it seems that 1 run games would be a lot more common. I especially am not a fan of the home team run-line -- I'm of the mindset that long term it is better to lay the price than -1.5. Again, just my opinion and I'm sure there are bettors out there who have a run-line system that is profitable.
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| Re: Run line experiment |
Wed, 18 July 2012 10:15 |
ajwat297
Messages: 1365
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I thought that there would be more one run games as well, but it doesn't seem to be that different. Here are the numbers over the last 10 years:
2012 - 28.9%
2011 - 31.25%
2010 - 29.6%
2009 - 25.9%
2008 - 27.5%
2007 - 27.2%
2006 - 27.5%
2005 - 28.4%
2004 - 26.25%
2003 - 26.25%
This is a 10 year average of 27.88% of games being decided by one run. It is certainly a little more common over the past few years, but not significantly.
I am not positive of how often favourites win off the top of my head, but it suggests that roughly 15% of games are won by the favourite by 1 run so as long as the run line odds are good enough it should provide extra profit.
I will try to track stats based on money line odds (-100 to -130, -131 to -150, etc) as well as home/road stats to see what if anything it tells.
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| Re: Run line experiment |
Wed, 18 July 2012 20:44 |
ajwat297
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Interesting start today. Got screwed by the Yankees game being called after 7 and then got lucky with a home team walk off HR to cash in LA. All in all I am in the same position run line or not.
Record 1-1 +0.70 units (2-1 +0.70 units)
Thursdays games that fit the criteria:
Tampa Bay +130 (-165)
Cincinnati +145 (-140)
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| Re: Run line experiment |
Fri, 20 July 2012 09:01 |
ajwat297
Messages: 1365
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Record 2-2 +1.00 units (4-1 +2.70 units)
Friday games that fit the criteria:
Tampa Bay +120 (-180)
Arizona +110 (-180)
It has been the games lined at more than -150 that have hurt me in the early going of this experiment. I have a feeling I will get involved with at least one road team at some point this weekend so I will be forced to track the H/R splits of it as well.
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| Re: Run line experiment |
Sat, 21 July 2012 07:33 |
ajwat297
Messages: 1365
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Record 3-3 +1.10 units (6-1 +4.70 units)
Saturday games that fit the criteria:
Pittsburgh +140 (-150)
Arizona +100 (-200)
So far run lines suck although without the rainout in NY we would only be down a couple of units. Also far too early to judge. Hopefully I can keep the experiment going for a month or more.
(edited because I forgot Arizona)
[Updated on: Sat, 21 July 2012 07:41]
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| Re: Run line experiment |
Sun, 22 July 2012 05:12 |
ajwat297
Messages: 1365
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Record 5-3 +3.50 units (8-1 +6.70 units)
Sunday games that fit the criteria:
Pittsburgh +180 (-120)
Arizona -105 (-210)
St. Louis +105 (-200)
Follow me on twitter - @ajwat297
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| Re: Run line experiment |
Mon, 23 July 2012 07:44 |
ajwat297
Messages: 1365
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Record 8-3 +7.45 units (11-1 +9.70 units)
The moneyline is still holding on as the more profitable, however, I do think that it is showing to go the way of the runline as there will be significant gains on outright losers and there is no way that I will continue to pick winners at a 92% clip.
Monday games that fit the criteria:
Cincinnati +105 (-160)
Arizona -105 (-210)
NY Yankees +105 (-160)
San Francisco +150 (-160)
I am editing the run line profit ... I just noticed I messed up on day 1 as the profit should have been 0.80 and I went with the 0.70.
[Updated on: Mon, 23 July 2012 07:47]
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| Re: Run line experiment |
Thu, 26 July 2012 08:14 |
ajwat297
Messages: 1365
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Record 12-3 +12.05 units (15-1 +13.70 units)
May as well keep this rolling
Pittsburgh +100 (-155)
Arizona +135 (-160)
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| Re: Run line experiment |
Fri, 27 July 2012 09:23 |
ajwat297
Messages: 1365
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Record 13-4 +12.05 units (16-2 +13.05 units)
St. Louis -105 (-165)
Cincinnati +140 (-110)
San Francisco +125 (-180)
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| Re: Run line experiment |
Fri, 27 July 2012 11:51 |
ajwat297
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Headed out of town for the weekend, but the beauty of this thread is that I am paying less attention to value (because my initial belief is that runlines will automatically provide value if proficient at picking winners) so I can post Saturday and Sunday plays. I will update the record when I get home and will try to post the lines for Sunday's plays prior to when the games start
Saturday:
Pittsburgh -105 (-160)
Cleveland +130 (-120)
Cincinnati -105 (-170)
Arizona +115 (-165)
Sunday:
St. Louis
NY Yankees
Texas
Cincinnati
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| Re: Run line experiment |
Sun, 29 July 2012 05:47 |
ajwat297
Messages: 1365
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Just to update lines and add one play for sunday
Stl +110 (-150)
Nyy +105(-170)
tex +140(-145)
cin -110(-165)
Laa +115(-190)
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| Re: Run line experiment |
Mon, 30 July 2012 08:11 |
ajwat297
Messages: 1365
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Record 19-10 +12.95 units (23-7 +11.95 units)
Monday games that fit the profile:
Cincinnati +140 (-145)
Milwaukee +125 (-165)
San Francisco +125 (-180)
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| Re: Run line experiment |
Mon, 30 July 2012 09:47 |
ajwat297
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Agreed. I have obviously been picking good spots. In fairness 1/3 of my choices have been lined less than -160 and only 4/30 have been -200 or higher so it hasn't been as chalky as it could have been.
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| Re: Run line experiment |
Tue, 31 July 2012 04:05 |
ajwat297
Messages: 1365
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Was feeling good with the Brewers and Giants late last night. I should know better from Milwaukee by now.
Record 19-13 +9.95 units (24-9 +9.70 units)
Tuesday games that fit the profile:
Washington +165 (-145)
Cincinnati +120 (-180)
Milwaukee -115 (-240)
Chi. White Sox +120 (-130)
Oakland +190 (-115)
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| Re: Run line experiment |
Wed, 01 August 2012 08:51 |
ajwat297
Messages: 1365
Registered: September 2009 |
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Record 20-17 +6.95 units (27-11 +10.10 units)
Cincinnati +115 (-185)
Atlanta +110 (-195)
Pittsburgh +130 (-120)
St. Louis +125 (-130)
Follow me on twitter - @ajwat297
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| Re: Run line experiment |
Wed, 01 August 2012 20:21 |
ajwat297
Messages: 1365
Registered: September 2009 |
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Thursday Plays
Cincinatti +110 (-190)
Atlanta +125 (-170)
St. Louis (will update odds on RL and ML when they open)
Follow me on twitter - @ajwat297
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) that was one of the most disciplined gamblers I ever knew. He would sit down at the Las Vegas Club downtown where they had +2 or -2 run lines and he only bet the +2 run lines; he wouldn't make a bet for days at a time but when he bet it was the max and he was always laying big juice but rarely lost. I remember once he went two weeks without making a bet but he'd sit there and watch all the games everyday; I was a wide eyed young kid w/ pockets full of round robins and parlay tickets and couldn't believe how cautious he was, seemed boring to me at the time but I know there's a system to the + 1 1/2 line that can be profitable. Wish I still knew him today 
