| British Open Matchups......from Alf Musketa |
Wed, 18 July 2012 10:00  |
 Alf M.
Messages: 654
Registered: July 2012 |
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Hello Sportsmemo Forum!
We are going to do my first posting of golf action right here in the Forum.
The British Open is the third major of the year and by all accounts the trickiest, with the most wacky bounces, and sometimes produces the luckiest winners as well. I don't think Todd Hamilton is going to win another Tour event let alone a major anytime soon.
The par 71 Royal Lytham and St. Annes, in Lancashire, UK layout measures 7,128 yards... has no water, but only 206 bunkers. (They had 326 bunkers when The Open was last played there in 2001) The golf course is in pristine shape, yet the weather calls for RAIN and WIND the first three days of the tournament, making conditions soft but difficult to manage. The rough is so penal that some players may lose their caddy and the fairways tighter than normal than most on The Open Rota.
There have been 25 different consecutive winners on the European Tour as of last week with Jeev Milka Singh winning the Scottish Open and 15 different consecutive winners of a major tournament dating back to 2008. The field is deeper than ever and the top 70 and ties make the cut.
Sounds difficult? Tough to handicap? Shall we save our money and efforts for the RBC Canadian Open next week? ....I don't think so.
Having said that...there aren't too many head to head matchups in any sport that we cannot crack. But, with the wind and rain sometimes the luck of the draw within the tee times can spell out who plays and who makes the cut...and because of the conditions I have not attacked the British Open with as much vigor and with as many wagers as I normally do in a major event. I believe keeping the ball in play off the tee this week is the most important key factor.
Jason Dufner -125 vs. Rickie Fowler
Dufner is cool, calm and collected. With adverse conditions and high rough, we love his demeanor and his 16th ranking on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy. His last three events resulted in 2nd, 4th and a Win at the HP Byron Nelson Championship. Fowler has been no slouch this season either, but his effort after the 82 he shot paired with Tiger Woods at the Memorial, was a T41 at the U.S. Open with a brutal course set-up. Dufner was T4 at the U.S. Open. Both players have taken plenty of time off, but we favor the better swing and straighter hitter in this matchup.
Marcel Siem -125 vs. Davis Love III (DL3)
The Captain of this year's USA Ryder Cup Team, DL3 is here this week to answer many media questions, meet with the R & A members and keep an eye on potential players that he has to pick for the up-coming Ryder Cup. I do not see him contending given his commitments and fighting in these conditions. Siem on the other hand ranks 15th on the stellar Euro Ryder Cup team standings and a good showing here will do wonders for his position and or chance to be selected. He is playing some of his best golf ever. He recently won the Open de France (two weeks ago) and usually players do not play well the following week. Siem had a T29 last week at the Scottish Open. Siem hasn't missed a cut in seven starts and only one this entire season. This line should be -160 in my opinion.
Thongchai Jaidee -140 vs. Y.E. Yang
This matchup is not widely available and if you can find it, I recommend playing it.
We've been burned by injury reports before, but it has been confirmed that Yang has a neck and shoulder injury. He canceled his practice session on Tuesday. Yang is not in great form to begin with a best finish of T45 in his last five starts. Conversely, Jaidee has made 10 consecutive cuts in Asia and Europe since mid-April and won the Wales Open in June.
1st Round Matchup
Tom Watson +120 vs. Ryo Ishikawa
Yes we are banking on the 62 year old Watson here in round one, the greatest links player of all-time, five-time winner of this event and IMO the best bad weather player ever. Watson will relish the severe conditions. His secret besides being one of the best ball strikers ever, he gets out in the weather, practices in it and gets use to it and grinds his way around the track. Ishikawa has many talents, I've seen him up close playing as a Junior in a tournament with my son Matt, but his downfall is he goes after the ball with reckless abandon. He swings too hard and sprays the ball all over the place.
Will they make the Cut?
Zach Johnson, No +205
Zach won the John Deere Classic last week in a playoff with Troy Matteson, but I've made a boat load betting against the previous week's winner over the past several years. Earlier this year Zach won the Crowne Plaza Invitational and then his next tournament he missed the cut. Players today make a $million$ dollars with every win, they celebrate and then become complacent and do not practice as hard. It's a natural thing. When Zach is out in the wind and rain, he'll be thinking about last week's good times.
Check back with us throughout the week for possible round by round matchups and or props.
Alf M.
[Updated on: Mon, 23 July 2012 06:34] by Moderator
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| Re: British Open Matchups......from Alf Musketa |
Wed, 18 July 2012 10:28  |
ER_Sports
Messages: 3011
Registered: July 2005 |
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Great stuff Alf and love the comments and analysis!!! Welcome to team and good luck to everyone!
Follow Erin Rynning on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ersports1
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| Re: British Open Matchups......from Alf Musketa |
Thu, 19 July 2012 06:55 |
ajwat297
Messages: 1431
Registered: September 2009 |
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Welcome to Sportsmemo Alf. I enjoyed your British Open thoughts (looks like you are going to be +0.20 units with good starts so far to the tournament match ups) and look forward to more contributions moving forward.
Follow me on twitter - @ajwat297
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| Re: British Open Matchups......from Alf Musketa |
Fri, 20 July 2012 17:17 |
Alf M.
Messages: 654
Registered: July 2012 |
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3RD Round Only
Brandt Snedeker -120 over Thorbjorn Olesen
Normally we don't bet on the player that just fired the best round in the field, which Snedeker did with a sizzling 64 and took the lead by two. Why, because everything went their way during that round and it will be tough to replicate. However, there is a spot play here that warrants and trumps going against the best round angle.
Olesen is paired with Tiger Woods in the second to last group and he has never faced that situation before. Playing with Tiger is a nightmare. The galleries are huge, they are loud, voice tress, and they carry cell phones that go off in the middle of your back-swing. Then there is the media, cameras clicking all the time, and moving to get the best shot/angle.
The worst part about playing with Tiger is after he takes a shot or makes his putt, the crowd, the galleries, and the media FLEE to get to the next hole or location to see his next shot. They stand still for Tiger but are always on the go when his playing partner is hitting his shot.
I don't expect Snedeker to shoot another low round on Sat, something around 70 (Even par) should be fine, because I'm betting that Olesen will not break par and IMO will shoot closer to 75 than 70. Olesen made several what we call snakes or bombs on the green yesterday, including a 23 footer on the last hole, I doubt he makes anything over 10 feet in round three.
[Updated on: Fri, 20 July 2012 17:23]
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| Re: British Open Matchups......from Alf Musketa |
Sat, 21 July 2012 13:54 |
Alf M.
Messages: 654
Registered: July 2012 |
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I have a couple of leans for the 4th round, but unless the line on them moves drastically, we are done for the week with golf action.
Adam Scott has a four shot lead, and with a three shot lead, I use to back the leader at -110 or less. But the field and scoring has changed too many players are coming from behind and stealing the win, like Webb Simpson did at the U.S. Open.
Scott is now -135 to -150 to win, (depending on where you shop) but I don't foresee it being that easy tomorrow, with G Mac, Tiger and Els breathing down his neck. If it were 3-4 no names and scoring condition were for sure predictable, I'd back Scott.
The weather calls for 12-20 mph winds, but the forecasters haven't got it right all week.
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