| takin the points with ND on the highway..... |
Tue, 11 September 2012 19:53  |
 collect-on-tuesday
Messages: 653
Registered: January 2012 |
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which means you should play Mich St. I never win a play I make involving a ND game. I loaded up on Mich St last week at-19.5, and then at 18, and then I bought a hook and played a 17. Someone would have to explain to me how that matchup power rated so low bc it should have been lined at 31. No significant stat related to each team would suggest such a low spread or at least not the stats I deem relevant. I expected Max Smith to play great against a CMU defense that in no way shape or form could remotely confuse him the way Boise did. Problem tho is two fold. One, Smith has bad footwork, no rhythm and just flat out sucks. Two, MSU has poor design to their passing game. 75% of their passing game should come off some type of play action. That is an offense you should be able to complete 12 passes a game for about 200 yards.They were 50 points better than CMU but he holds them back. Does ND have a QB better? Maybe a little or at least they IMO may be able to get more productivity out of that position. Too many people are (falsely) high on Florida St ty year but lets remember back to the bowls when ND controlled them 14-0 for 3 quarters before FSU pulled it out late with the help of some momentum shifting miracle pass completions. I like ND to come in and find a way to put up a couple scores early and putting pressure on the MSU OC to have to rely on Smiths ability to throw. I think the ND 3-4 defense is stout enough to keep the MSU ground game at bay without having to bring extra guys and when they do get exotic on passing downs they will confuse this Smith kid. Smith got away with some bad throws that hit CMU right in their hands but dropped. Points should be impossible to come by. Defensive personnel for MSU looks almost as good as what you would see at a high level SEC school.
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| Re: takin the points with ND on the highway..... |
Mon, 17 September 2012 23:47  |
collect-on-tuesday
Messages: 653
Registered: January 2012 |
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Thats a damn good team and it has possibly takin Kelly longer than expected so doubt may still remain in the betting markets. I played them again with this week. They are MUCH MUCH better in the trenches on both sides of the ball than Michigan and will stop that run game without having to do too much. I've been burned by ND alot but this matchup just seems too obvious fundamentally speaking. Kelly cost me $ with that last minute TD he smacked Navy with (2h Under) and thinking about that tells me he has the weapons he has been wanting and he is ready to kill. The fact ND didn't allow a cheap late TD to Mich St. just solidfies more the notion that Kelly isn't taking any prisoners. He has a mobile QB and while the kid may not be smooth at throwing a good playcaller like Kelly can control a game and move the sticks just fine with an athlete like him back there. I think this gets worse than the Alabama game because Kelly has a damn good 3-4 defense and won't call off the dogs in the 2H. They are still pissed off Michigan stole that win from them last year. Make no mistake, Purdue caught them in a tough spot but Danny Hope has a real good team too that I expect to play in the big 10 championship game
[Updated on: Mon, 17 September 2012 23:49]
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