Haven't done homework but from what I see, Denver and Payton Manning might be the play tonight. I actually prefer the UNDER 51.5 in this spot. GL to all
Know he's not a household name for most but the absence of Falcons CB Brent Grimes figures to really hurt their pass defense here...just don't know that the Atl pass rush can help enough because Denver's offensive line builds a fortress around QB Manning.
Ian Cameron Messages: 1621 Registered: October 2008
Member
I bet OVER 51 in tonight's game last week and contemplated releasing it to clients tonight but I'm rarely going to put out a service play for an Over at that high of a # in the NFL especially for a standalone primetime game because you need a clean ride to cash it. You need some big plays and you need both teams to be efficient in the red zone and score TD's and not settle for FG's inside the 20 when you are trying to cash an Over with a total in the 50's in the NFL. You also need to avoid turnovers. I saw numerous games affected by costly turnovers from a totals perspective in both NFL and College Football this weekend.
All that being said, the offenses should rule here. CB Brent Grimes is a HUGE loss IMO for the Falcons defense because he's clearly their best player in that secondary which isn't all that strong or filled with depth to begin with. Peyton Manning should he receive time in the pocket could pick them apart tonight. LB Sean Weatherspoon is a little banged up too for ATL. He will play but how effective will he be is a question.
Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense should be able to have success tonight too but right now I'd have to rate Denver's defense ahead of Atlanta's. No doubt the Atlanta offense played well last week against KC but that performance doesn't look as good after watching the Chiefs defense do what they did against the Bills yesterday. Atlanta has a strong track record of playing better at home and scoring more points at home but the Atlanta OL is going to get a real test tonight. The Chiefs got no pressure on Ryan last week but Denver has the ability to bring it from Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller who are both excellent at rushing the QB.
From a side perspective, tough one to call. I think Denver +3 is where I'd lean with it because I trust their D more right now to make the key stops with the game on the line but I can't overlook the strong regular season record for Atlanta at home since the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan duo arrived in 2008. Falcons are 26-6 SU at the Georgia Dome in the regular season during that span. It's also Peyton's first start on the road this season. Sure, he's no stranger to playing and winning on the road but let's see if he can do it here with a new team in a tough environment against a strong home team tonight.
It should be a fascinating game to watch and even though I've only got a small Over wager on it, I'm excited to see how this one unfolds.
Denver beat the Steelers LW while Atlanta beat KC, how does that look now after yesterday?..., small edge with Denver. CB Grimes out helps Denver's case by 1/4 point. However, home field worth more on MNF.
Ian Cameron Messages: 1621 Registered: October 2008
Member
Let's give the Atlanta offensive line some credit. This is two games now where Matt Ryan hasn't even been touched and the pass rush from the opposition has been non-existent. For a unit that IMO had major questions on it entering the season, consider me impressed so far this season with their performance.
Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller who? Haven't heard their names at all tonight. Why? Because they simply aren't getting to Matt Ryan. Not even close.
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