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MLB FREE PLAY FROM ROB VENO
Views: 1357
Posted by Drew Martin
Replies: 0

San Francisco @ N.Y. Mets

Starting pitchers home/road splits are not the be-all, end-all in every handicap but in these case they likely tell enough to take a small position. For San Francisco, LH starter Matt Moore has atrocious overall numbers this season but those stat lines are definitely skewed by his road performances. In his three starts away from AT&T Park this season, Moore has not lasted more than 5 1/3 innings and he has not recorded a game WHIP under 1.88. Combined, Moores road numbers read like this: 12 2/3 IP, 23 H, 21 R, 18 ER, 10 K, 8 BB & 4 HR allowed. His road ERA is 12.80, WHIP 2.45, PPI (pitches per inning) 18.8 and hes allowed 45.6% of the batters hes faced to reach base. In the glass half full scenario, the Mets have not hit lefties well this season .225 BA & .295 OBP but this figures to be a spot where they could do at least some damage.

The polar opposite of Moores road results is Mets RH starter Jacob deGroms home starts. In Citi Field thus far, deGrom has tossed a total of 14 innings in two starts posting a 2.08 ERA and 0.69 WHIP while allowing just 18.8% of the batters hes faced to reach base. San Francisco has struggled offensively vs. RHP (.228 BA &.283 OBP) which is similar to the Mets difficulties against left handers so the lineups seem to negate each other. Starting SS Brandon Crawfords trip to the 10 day DL on April 26th has really hurt the Giants as theyve averaged 2.9 runs per game without him and have recorded game BAs of below .229 in seven of them.

Obviously New Yorks offense is a concern and they havent faced a left handed starter in their last 12 games (16 days) but they are in a solid position to generate some runs tonight. The key arms in their bullpen are all rested and even though RH Fernando Salas has thrown in three straight games, his pitch counts of 7,7,1 suggest he should be able to effectively come get a batter if necessary. San Francisco is in a prolonged tailspin right now going 5-12 in their last 17 games and their 31-5 three game shellacking at Cincinnati over the weekend doesnt indicate promise. Bettors hitting the underdog SFG today dragging the -1.61 opener down to -1.48 in what primarily looks like nothing more than a value grab so play here is to buck the move and lay the reduced price with deGrom & the Mets.

Recommendation: New York Mets


 
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