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NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
Views: 799
Posted by FairwayJay
Replies: 5

For 2nd time since '02 realignment (2006), all 8 teams in NFL Divisional playoff round are division winners.

For 1st time in NFL history, Divisional round will feature 4 Super Bowl MVP QBs: Brady (x2), Brees, Rogers and Eli Manning

Reply by FairwayJay

This year, three teams are favored by at least 7 points in Divisional Round. Lines and (total) w/ home team CAPS

NEW ENGLAND - 13.5
Denver (51)

BALTIMORE - 7.5
Houston (36)

GREEN BAY - 8
NY Giants (52.5)

SAN FRANCISCO (47.5)
New Orleans -3.5


In 2006 Divisional Round, only one team was favored by more than 7 points, and the #1 seed Chicago Bears (-9.5) needed OT to beat Seattle 27-24.

Three of the four Divisional Round games in '06 were decided by 3 points with two road teams winning SU as 'Dogs (Colts and Patriots)

#3 Colts (-7) beat #1 Bears in Super Bowl 29-17.

Not a quality #1 seed - Bears

Reply by Marty Otto

Can anyone tell me the last time there was a home dog in the divisional round?

Reply by Gimbeaux

I want to say maybe the year the Panthers were 'dogs against the Cowboys under Capers. The Cowboys were the defending Super Bowl champions that year, if memory serves me correctly.

I know there have been recent 'dogs in the conference championship games. The Cardinals were home 'dogs to the sixth-seeded Eagles a few years back. Jake Plummer's Broncos were 'dogs to the Steelers, as were the Steelers to the Patriots.

Reply by Teddy_Covers

You nailed it, Gimbeaux. There has been exactly ONE home dog in this round of the playoffs in the last 28 years. That home dog? Carolina, wtih Kerry Collins behind center in their second year of existence (1996 season) vs. Dallas. Carolina was +3; they won the game 26-17, before losing big to the Packers in the NFC Championship Game the following week.

Reply by Teddy_Covers

Here's the ATS breakdown from the last five years, wtih home favorites listed first, followed by road dogs:

2010 season (Jan '11): 2-2
2009: 3-1
2008: 1-3
2007: 1-3
2006: 0-4

The 5 year sample says that road dogs are a decent bet in this round (13-7 ATS). A longer sample size (20 or 30 years) would most assuredly show the opposite result, as because home favorites dominated this round throughout the 90's and the first few years of the 21st century.

 
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