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Views: 715
Posted by Drew Martin
Replies: 0

Thought this was a useful piece from Fangraphs:

LD%: Line drive rate correlates very weakly with BABIP, producing a 0.12 R2. Its better than nothing but, unfortunately, line drive rate has virtually no correlation from year to year, something that rplunkett97 documented here. In other words, line drives do affect pitcher BABIP, but theyre worthless to use in a predictive manner, which is typically the reason why we use these metrics.

IFFB%: Infield fly ball rate does not correlate with BABIP, producing a 0.05 R2. Using IFFB% in a vacuum ignores how frequently a pitcher allows fly balls in the first place; converting it to pop-up rate (PU%, hypothetically) by multiplying IFFB% by overall fly ball rate (FB%) generates a metric that correlates very weakly with BABIP, producing a 0.10 R2.

Hard%: Hard-hit rate does not correlate with BABIP, producing a 0.03 R2. This will be the impetus for the rest of this post. and-hard-contact-allowed/

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