With a set bracket, seeding and home court based on that seeding, this year's NIT promised to be a completely different animal than we were used to seeing. In addition, the field was dropped to 32 teams and all conference regular season champs that did not make the NCAA field were automatically invited. Different it has been, with major conferences having more teams than normal and making up most of the remaining field as well.
The NIT has always been about making money, not providing each team with a fair chance to win, and they have always had an interest in making sure that the teams with the biggest following had the best chance to get to Madison Square Garden for the semifinals. In the past, the committee did not seed the teams and awarded home games to whoever it wanted after each round was played. This year the process is a little different and was made known prior to any of the action, but their goals remained the same.
The best teams were given the easiest road to New York, and thus far it has worked to perfection. So far, all four of the known quarterfinalists are members of major conferences and unless San Diego State knocks off Syracuse on the road on Monday night, all eight of the quarterfinalists will be from the SEC, ACC, Big East, Big-12 or MWC. Home Court has also been a big factor in the first two rounds. In round one, 13 of the 16 home teams advanced and all four second round games played thus far saw the home team win as well, going 3-0-1 ATS. It looks like all four home teams that play on Monday night will also advance, as all of them are favored and should be able to win. Air Force hosts Georgia and the Falcons should prevail over the Bulldogs. Air Force has destroyed teams that are not familiar with its system and own one of the best home court records in the nation over the past three seasons, losing just one game.
Kansas State hosts DePaul in another second round game on Monday night and the Wildcats should defeat the poor traveling Blue Demons. This would set up a quarterfinal matchup that would be played at Air Force if both teams win, while K-State would host Georgia if the Bulldogs pulled out a road win. Clemson hosts Ole Miss on Monday as well and the Tigers should escape with a win. They are the top seed in their region and would host the winner of the Syracuse vs. San Diego State game, which should also go to the host Orangemen. I give the nod to Air Force winning its region and consider the Clemson-Syracuse game to be a tossup, even on Clemson's home court. I would favor the Orangemen slightly in this game as they are now over their NCAA snub and their zone should give the poor shooting Tigers trouble.
We know for sure the other quarterfinal matchups and Mississippi State will host Florida State while West Virginia will host NC State. Again we have two very strong home courts in play in these games. Mississippi State is a 5.5-point favorite over Florida State. The Bulldogs have been very impressive at home all year, compiling a 16-3 SU mark and a 12-2 ATS record at the Hump. This is a young team that has gotten better and better as the season has progressed and has some nice wins in the SEC. Florida State will have the best player on the court in Al Thornton, but the Seminoles have just four road wins on the year and will fall short against the Bulldogs here.
West Virginia is a 6.5-point choice over the ACC Cinderella Wolfpack of NC State on its home court. The Mountaineers were 17-1 SU and 11-3 ATS at home on the year with their only loss coming to Pittsburgh. NC State has been terrific over the past two weeks, reaching the finals of the ACC Tourney and winning at Drexel in the first round of the NIT. They also defeated Marist at home to earn the right to face West Virginia. While the Wolfpack has been playing their best basketball of the season, they are facing a very difficult task of winning on the road to get to Madison Square Garden. I look for them to fall short, however, ending their magical run.
My projected NIT Final Four is Air Force, Mississippi State, Syracuse and West Virginia. Both Big East teams will have a small advantage from their experience in the Garden, but any of these four teams is capable of walking away with the crown. I expect to see a Mississippi State-Syracuse final, with Mississippi State taking the win in the final.