This is the 1st of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for the 2008 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two levels of ranking (1-star and 2-stars).

Boston Red Sox-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 93.5 (various sportsbooks)

Last 3 seasons wins totals:
2007-96
2006-86
2005-95
3-year average: 92  

Lineup-The Red Sox will return basically the same lineup from last year's championship squad. Here's a look:

C-Jason Varitek (age - 36): Varitek is reaching an age where most catchers struggle to hit at a high level but he is still one of the driving forces of this club. He drew a career high 71 walks last season and had some solid pop with 17 homers.

1B-Kevin Youkilis (29): His 2007 numbers were similar to the season that Youkilis produced in 2006. Youkilis hit 90 points less after the all-star break but his .328 first half average was critical as Boston was able to open up a huge lead in the AL East early in the season. Look for another season of 15-20 homers with 70-85 RBI's and an average of about .280 from Youkilis in 2008 as he continues to be a solid role player for the Red Sox.

2B-Dustin Pedoria (24): Pedoria's bat was a pleasant surprise in 2007. His .317 average also included some pop from a little guy with 8 home runs and 39 doubles. Opposing pitchers will likely make some adjustments this year so a slight drop off could be in store for Pedoria in 2008.

SS-Julio Lugo (32): Lugo drew some fan ire in 2007 for his low .237 batting average but he played some respectable defense to aid the club's stellar pitching staff. He did manage 73 RBI's and could be poised to hit closer to his .271 career average in 2008.

3B-Mike Lowell (34): Lowell had an MVP caliber campaign in 2007 with a career best 120 RBI's and a .324 average. Bosox fans rejoiced when he resigned with the club this winter after speculation had him possibly going to the Yankees. He will likely see his numbers dip a little in 2008 but he should still be a 15-20 homer, 80-90 RBI guy in 2008.

LF-Manny Ramirez (35): Manny had the worst season of his big league career in 2007. Of course, in the context of a Hall of Fame career, Ramirez is still a major threat in the Boston lineup. He only needs ten homers to reach 500 for his career. With 2008 being a free agent year, Ramirez will likely exceed his 2007 numbers (20 HR, 88 RBI's) in 2008.

CF-Jacoby Ellsbury (24): After hitting .353 in 116 at-bats in his debut big league season a year ago, Ellsbury is likely to edge out Coco Crisp this spring for the starting center field spot. Crisp has only hit .266 in his two seasons in Boston.

RF-J.D. Drew (32): Drew didn't produce the numbers that were hoped for after he signed a big free agent deal before the 2007 campaign. However, he struck a huge blow in the postseason with a dramatic grand slam in Game 6 of the ALCS against Cleveland as Drew hit .314 in the postseason. Still, he will come under fire in 2008 if he doesn't improve on his mediocre 2007 power numbers (11 HR, 64 RBI's) in 2008.

DH-David Ortiz (32): "Big Papi" posted career highs in average (.332) and doubles (52) in 2007. Ortiz has averaged 135 RBI's over the last four seasons.

Overall lineup outlook (5 right-handed batters, 3 left-handed batters, and 1 switch hitter): The Red Sox finished third in the AL in runs scored in 2007. Boston scored 5.9 runs per game at home while scoring only 4.9 runs on average in their away games. This club will be more dangerous again at the favorable hitting conditions of Fenway Park but the squad will hope to improve a little on their road numbers in 2008. The Red Sox have some age in their lineup but they aren't an "old" team yet. With all of their key hitters being between 32 and 36, Boston should be able to post some strong offensive numbers in 2008 although the Red Sox could slip a notch or two in the AL in runs scored this season.    

Starting rotation-A deep staff that should be able to weather the storm despite an injury to Curt Schilling.

RHP-Josh Beckett (27): Beckett became the ace in 2007 that Boston had expected him to be when he was acquired from Florida before the 2006 season. After posting an ERA of over five in 2006, Beckett delivered 20 wins and a stellar 3.27 ERA in 2007. He added to his dominant 2003 postseason with the Marlins by posting a 4-0 record with a 1.20 ERA in Boston's 2007 playoff run.

RHP-Daisuke Matsuzaka (27): Matsuzaka didn't quite match the hype that arrived with him from Japan but his first major league season was a success. He wore down after the all-star break with an ERA of over five. Matsuzaka will be a key in 2008 after logging 242 total innings in 2007 with spring training and the postseason included.

RHP-Tim Wakefield (41): A reliable arm who delivered 17 wins in 2007. The knuckleballer could still be in the rotation into his mid 40s. His 4.76 ERA was his highest since 2000 so Wakefield will need to be crafty again in 2008.

LHP-Jon Lester (24): He could be the difference maker in 2008 as he is likely to get 30+ starts for the first time in his career. His 4.57 ERA was respectable in 2007 but control is a concern as Lester had 31 walks in just 63 innings.

RHP-Clay Buchholz (23): A lot of buzz surrounds the youngster after he fired a no-hitter in his second big league start last season. Can he deliver over an entire season? The Red Sox will monitor his pitch counts closely to ensure his success in 2008.

Overall rotation outlook: With four starters under the age of 28 and a hurler (Wakefield) who has a style that isn't too effected by age, this staff should be able to be solid again in 2008. There will be some pressure on the youngsters to prove themselves but the three vets at the top of the rotation should be able to go deep into most games to aid the young arms. Schilling has won too many big games to be discounted as a possible huge mid-season boost as well.  

Bullpen-A solid group that should be able to perform at a strong level again in 2008.

Setup relief - LHP Hideki Okajima(32) was another valuable Japanese import in 2007 as the lefty posted a stellar 2.22 E.R.A. in 66 outings out of the pen. RHP Manny Delcarmen (26) emerged to post a 2.05 ERA while allowing just 28 hits in 44 innings of work. LHP Javier Lopez (30) and veteran RHP Mike Timlin (42) are also capable hurlers out of the Boston pen. Versatile RHP Julian Tavarez (34) can handle long or short relief duties while being a respectable spot starter if needed.

Closer - RHP Jonathan Papelbon (27): In what turned out to be a wise move, Papelbon stayed in the pen in 2007 after some offeseason discussion to move him into the rotation. He was basically untouchable last season as he allowed only 45 baserunners in 58.1 innings of work.   

Overall pitching outlook: Boston allowed the fewest runs of any MLB staff in 2007. A truly impressive feat considering the club plays half of its' games at Fenway Park. With virtually the same staff returning intact, Boston should be able to approach their 2007 numbers in 2008. While a couple of raw arms in the rotation could be a concern, the Red Sox have a deep staff to go to war with. The strong arms should be able to key another postseason bid in 2008.

Final recap and recommendation: Boston has won 92 or more games in seven of the last ten seasons. The Red Sox have an advantage that no other big league club has. Fenway Park. Playing at home in baseball does not provide the kind of edge that is found in basketball or football. The Red Sox are the exception to the norm. Each game at Fenway has a playoff type of feel to it. Boston wins at least five extra games a year just from playing in this environment. This atmosphere should lessen any thoughts of the Red Sox being complacent after winning a title. GM Theo Epstein did little in the offseason and with good reason. There are no real weaknesses with his current squad to address. The Red Sox will have to push themselves in the regular season to ensure a playoff spot in a tough and deep American League field. Boston should be able to do enough to hold off the Yankees in the AL East in 2008.   

OVER 93.5 WINS: * 1-Star