This is the 2nd of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for the 2008 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two levels of ranking (1-star and 2-stars).


New York Yankees-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 94.5 (various sportsbooks)

Last 3 seasons wins totals

2007-94
2006-97
2005-95

3-year average: 95  

Lineup-The Yankees should once again have one of the most explosive offenses in baseball in 2008. Here's a look:

C-Jorge Posada(36): He is at an age where most catchers begin to decline offensively. However, Posada posted career highs in batting average (.338) and OPS (.969) in 2007. He has been very consistent with seven 20+ HR seasons in the last eight years with five years of 90+ RBI's over the same stretch. With a lot of protection and depth in the lineup, Posada should be able to produce another solid campaign in 2008.

1B-Jason Giambi(37): His controversial tenure with the Yankees will likely end after this season as Giambi enters the final year of his mega free agent deal with New York. He played in only 83 games last year and could sit against a lot of lefties in 2008.

2B-Robinson Cano(25): With this club showing some age, Cano is a key to the transition that will be coming in the near future. He has a career average of .314 in his three big league seasons.

SS-Derek Jeter(33): He was overshadowed by Alex Rodriguez but Jeter continues to be a steady component of the New York lineup. He has scored more than 100 runs in 11 of the last 12 seasons. There are some questions regarding a possible decline in his defense at shortstop and his range could be an issue as he enters his mid 30's.   

3B-Alex Rodriguez(32): His amazing April enabled the Yankees to stay afloat as the rest of the squad struggled. Rodriguez couldn't translate his MVP campaign into the postseason again as Yankees fans are still waiting for A-Rod to step up in the playoffs. His last ten years have included more than 105 RBI's in each campaign with eight years of more than 40 homers.

LF-Johnny Damon(34): Damon's .747 OPS in 2007 was his lowest since 2001. He also scored less than 100 runs for the first time since 1997. Damon did hit .296 after the all-star break after hitting just .245 in the first half.   

CF-Melky Cabrera(23): His fresh legs and arm enabled him to take over in center field for New York as the Yankees looked to improve their outfield defense. Cabrera is still developing as a hitter but he did manage a respectable 73 RBI's in 2007.   

RF-Bobby Abreu(34): Abreu was inconsistent in his first full season in New York. He did manage to drive in more than 100 runs for the sixth time in the last seven years although his .814 OPS was the lowest for any full season in his career.

DH-Hideki Matsui(33): In his four healthy years with the Yankees, Matsui has eclipsed the 100 RBI mark in each campaign. A steady bat in the Yankees order.

Overall lineup outlook(3 right-handed batters, 5 left-handed batters, and 1 switch-hitter): The Yankees easily led the majors in runs scored for the second year in a row as New York improved on their 2006 total (930) with 968 runs in 2007. The club did struggle at times against left-handed pitching and that could be a concern again in 2008 with a majority of left-handed bats in the lineup. However, the key hitters are still at an age to perform at a high level over a 162-game slate in 2008. While the Tigers could make things interesting with their improved lineup, the Yankees are likely to lead the majors in runs scored for a third straight season in 2008.      

Starting rotation-New York has some question marks at the back end of their rotation.

RHP-Chien-Ming Wang(28): The ace of the Yankees basically repeated his strong 19-6 2006 season with a 19-7 campaign in 2007. Wang has a unique style that doesn't produce a lot of strikeouts (104 in 199.1 innings in 2007) while keeping the ball in the yard as he was touched for only nine homers in 2007.

LHP-Andy Pettitte(35): Setting aside a controversial offseason, Pettitte's return to the Yankees yielded a solid 15-9 season in 2007. With some untested arms behind him in the rotation, the lefty will be counted on heavily in 2008.

RHP-Mike Mussina(39): Mussina's steady career finally hit a bump in 2007 as he produced a career worst 5.15 E.R.A. After an early season stint on the DL, Mussina could never regain his velocity to past levels. Despite his impressive career resume and high salary, Mussina will be on a short leash as the right-hander isn't a lock to stay in the rotation if his 2007 struggles carry over into 2008.

RHP-Phil Hughes(21): While many felt he was rushed to the big leagues in 2007, Hughes showed flashes of his huge potential in his 13 rookie starts. He went 3-0 with a 2.73 E.R.A. in September. His ability to hold up over an entire big league campaign will be important to the success or failure of the overall rotation in 2008.   

RHP-Ian Kennedy(23): Like Hughes, the jury is still out on the USC product after he posted a 1.90 E.R.A. in his three starts as a rookie last year. Kennedy may not stay in the rotation too long as prized relief arm Joba Chamberlin is expected to move into the rotation at some point during the 2008 campaign..

Overall rotation outlook: If the young arms come through, the Yankees could have a very good rotation. If they don't, some of the 2007 struggles may resurface. How much do Pettitte and Mussina have left in the tank? The veteran duo have a lot of mileage on their arms. New York should be able to improve on their 2007 starting numbers but the raw arms may ultimately lead to just a slight improvement as some growing pains are likely for some inexperienced hurlers.    

Bullpen-The Yankees are hoping to improve their pen in 2008 after some struggles with their setup and middle relief hurlers in 2007.

Setup relief-RHP Joba Chamberlin(22) brought some excitement to the Bronk with some dominant numbers (24 IP, 12 H, 34 K's, 0.38 E.R.A.) as a setup hurler for the Yankees after the all-star break in 2007. His valuable arm will likely land him in the rotation by the end of 2008. Free agent addition RHP Latroy Hawkins(35) is a key pickup after posting a 3.42 E.R.A. with the NL champion Rockies last season. RHP Kyle Farnsworth (32) has been a disappointment in his two seasons with the Yankees but he still has a live arm. The Yankees are hoping that LHP Kei Igawa(28) can get some left-handed hitters out and provide some long relief after some major struggles as a big league rookie in 2007.    

Closer-RHP Mariano Rivera(38): The fact that Rivera's 3.15 E.R.A. in 2007 was his highest since his rookie campaign in 1995 is a testament to his dominant career. He converted 30 of 34 saves a year ago and is still in the discussion as the game's best closer despite his age.   

Overall pitching outlook: The Yankees finished 7th in the AL in runs allowed in 2007. The imbalance of this club is a concern when an average pitching staff is trying to support the club's dominant offense. The young arms of Hughes, Chamberlin, and Kennedy provide some hope for improvement in 2008. Hawkins is a nice addition but the pen still lacks some depth. New York should have a better staff this season but there are enough question marks to make the strides only small ones in 2008.   

Final recap and recommendation: Joe Torre's 12-year reign as Yankees manager yielded 12 trips to the postseason and four world series titles. Of course, the last seven years are still fresh in the minds of Yankees fans as Torre and New York came up empty in the playoffs. Former Marlins manager Joe Girardi will arrive with a different approach to New York as Torre's replacement. Girardi will bring a little more intensity and detail to the club as opposed to Torre's more relaxed style. He will have plenty of horses to run with but this team will ultimately be judged by their performance in October. However, a 14th consecutive postseason trip isn't a given in a deep American League field. The Yankees are better than the team that went 41-43 to start last season but aren't quite as good as the club that went 53-25 over their last 78 games. New York will be in the thick of the playoff chase but there are still enough pitching questions to project a slight decline for the Yankees in 2008.  
 
UNDER 94.5 WINS-* 1-Star