This is the 3rd of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for the 2008 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two levels of ranking (1-star and 2-stars).


Toronto Blue Jays-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 85.5 (various sportsbooks)

Last 3 seasons wins totals

2007-83
2006-87
2005-80

3-year average: 83

Lineup-A couple of ex-Cardinals have been added to the 2008 lineup. Here's a look:

C-Greg Zaun(37): Decent production from a veteran backstop as Zaun drove in 52 runs in just 110 games last season. Zaun will likely form a platoon with veteran right-handed hitting catcher Rod Barajas.

1B-Lyle Overbay(31): A major disappointment for the Blue Jays in 2007 after he posted a career season in his first year with the Blue Jays in 2006. Overbay missed 42 games and managed only 44 RBI's while hitting .240. His OPS dropped from .880 to .706 as well. A bounce back season from Overbay is a must if the Jays are going to make a run at the Red Sox and Yankees in the AL East this season.    

2B-Aaron Hill(26): While Overbay struggled, Hill emerged as a middle infielder with some pop in 2007. He pounded 17 homers and 47 doubles while hitting .291 for the second straight year.

SS-David Eckstein(33): The Cardinals chose to let the pesky shortstop go after last season. Toronto is hoping that his championship experience from the Cards and Angels will bring some winning intangibles to the Blue Jays. Eckstein did hit .309 last year but he has missed 84 games over the last two years. He will face a challenge trying to play defense on the turf in Toronto as Eckstein has some question marks regarding his range and arm.

3B-Scott Rolen(33): A falling out with St. Louis manager Tony LaRussa led to Rolen's departure from the Cardinals. Since four straight 100+ RBI years from 2001-04, Rolen's career has been setback by injuries. He has missed 176 games over the last three seasons and could manage only eight homers in 112 games last year. Rolen feels that his damaged shoulder is now healthy. While he was counted on to protect Albert Pujols in St. Louis, he will have less pressure in a deeper Toronto lineup.

LF-Reed Johnson(31): Injuries wrecked Johnson's 2007 campaign as he hit .236 in 79 games after hitting .319 in 2006. He could be looking over his shoulder this spring as Shannon Stewart has rejoined the Blue Jays for some added depth in Toronto's outfield.

CF-Vernon Wells(29): Wells tried to play through an injury last season but he was clearly not the same player that fans had been accustomed to seeing in 2007. He only hit .245 and his OPS went from .899 in 2006 to .706 last season. A healthy Wells should be able to return to the form that saw him produce four 97+ RBI seasons from 2002-06.

RF-Alex Rios(26): Rios continued his development for the Blue Jays in 2007 with 114 runs scored and 24 homers. He should be able to make some more progress in 2008.   

DH-Frank Thomas(39): His power numbers did slip a little in 2007 but his 26 HR's and 95 RBI's still yielded a quality first season in Toronto. The struggles of Overbay and Wells limited some of his RBI opportunities. He should have a few more chances to drive in runs in 2008.

Overall lineup outlook(7 right-handed batters, 1 left-handed batter, and 1 switch-hitter): The Blue Jays were a disappointing 10th in the AL in runs scored last season. Overbay and Wells should be poised for bounce back years while a healthy Rolen should come close to the power numbers produced by the departed Troy Glaus. Youngsters Hill and Rios should continue to improve while Eckstein should be a catalyst at the top of the lineup. The Blue Jays should be able to move up at least a couple of notches in the AL offensive rankings in 2008.     

Starting rotation-Toronto has several live arms in a deep rotation.

RHP-Roy Halladay(30): The ace did slip a little in 2007 as his 3.71 E.R.A. was his second highest over the last seven years. He is still a dominant number one though as Halladay has posted a 93-38 record over the last six seasons.

RHP-A.J. Burnett(31): Burnett should be in line for a career year in 2008 as the right-hander finished off 2007 with an outstanding second half. He posted a 3.01 E.R.A. after the all-star break. Durability is a question as Burnett has been limited to a total of 46 starts in his two seasons in Toronto. He should be able to exceed his career high in wins (12) in 2008.

RHP-Dustin McGowan(26): After making only ten starts in his first two big league seasons, McGowan moved into the rotation with a solid 4.08 E.R.A. in 27 starts in 2007. He allowed only 146 hits in 169.2 innings of work. A very capable number three starter behind Halladay and Burnett.  

RHP-Shaun Marcum(26): Like McGowan, Marcum took advantage of his opportunity to join the Blue Jays rotation early in the 2007 season. He posted a 3.91 E.R.A. in 25 starts although he wore down in the second half with a 4.68 E.R.A. after the all-star break.   

RHP-Jesse Litsch(23): Another solid addition to the Jays staff, Litsch posted a 3.81 E.R.A. in 20 starts as a rookie last season. He doesn't have overwhelming stuff as the right-hander logged only 50 strikeouts in 111 innings of work.

Overall rotation outlook: The Blue Jays starting pitching outlook is much brighter than a year ago at this time. While journeymen such as Tomo Ohka, Josh Towers, and Victor Zambrano were in the starting mix early last season, the Jays have five sound arms heading into this spring. Lefty Gustavo Chacin is a respectable added option if one of the starters goes on the shelf. Toronto should be able to rank as one of the top four overall AL rotations in 2008.      

Bullpen-A healthy B.J. Ryan should provide an improvement to the Blue Jays pen in 2008.

Setup relief-RHP Jeremy Accardo(26) was a capable replacement for Ryan as the Toronto closer in 2007 as he converted 30 of 35 save chances with a 2.14 E.R.A. LHP Scott Downs(32), RHP Casey Janssen(26), and RHP Brian Wolfe(27) all joined Accardo as Blue Jays relievers with E.R.A.'s of under three in 2007.  

Closer-LHP B.J. Ryan(32) is on pace to be ready for opening day after pitching in only five games a year ago. He notched 74 saves in the 2005-06 seasons as on of the AL's better closers.

Overall pitching outlook: Only the world champion Red Sox allowed fewer runs in the AL than the Toronto pitching staff in 2007. With their five starters being between the ages of 23 and 31, the rotation should be able to mirror last year's solid results. If Ryan is close to his old form, the Blue Jays will have one of the deepest bullpens in the league. Toronto will once again be one of the top AL pitching staffs in 2008.

 

Final recap and recommendation: In eight of the last ten seasons, Toronto has won between 80 to 88 games. This has left Toronto just a little short of being a playoff team. If everything falls into place for this club, they could finally be able to hang with the Red Sox and Yankees over 162 games. Eckstein and Rolen bring some winning resumes on board as their arrival has been welcomed by their teammates. A rebound season from Wells is a must as the Blue Jays do need an offensive boost this season. The pitching looks very solid although Mcgowan, Marcum, and Litsch must prove that they are legitimate in 2008. The Blue Jays should be able to make some strides in 2008 to at least get 86 wins and they could have a live playoff shot if all of the parts mesh together over 162 games.          

OVER 85.5 WINS-* 1-Star

About DC Sports:

David Jones, of DC Sports, has been one of the top four most profitable team handicappers since becoming a Sportsmemo handicapper in December of 2006 (12/06-1/08). Here's more info on the four sports that he handicaps for Sportsmemo:

NFL-DC Sports has been profitable in the NFL since coming on board in December of 2006. He has hit on 63% of his 20* NFL releases with a 10-6 mark. David was especially strong with his NFL O/U reports over the course of the 2007 season with a 34-20 (63%) record.

College Football-DC Sports is 9-4 (69%) with his 20* NCAAF selections for a combined 20* football record of 19-10 (66%). He went on a stellar 47-21 (69%) NCAAF run to close the 2006 regular season in his releases that were posted in the Sportsmemo forum.

NBA-DC Sports was profitable in the NBA over the entire 2006-07 season. He has followed up that winning campaign with a solid 80-67 mark so far in the 2007-08 season (through 2/28/08).

MLB-DC Sports turned in a profitable 2007 MLB season. He posted a 19-11 (63%) record with his recommendations for all 30 teams in his 2007 regular season over/under wins blogs before the start of the season.