This is the 4th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for the 2008 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two levels of ranking (1-star and 2-stars).


Tampa Bay Rays-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 73.5 (various sportsbooks)

Last 3 seasons wins totals

2007-66
2006-61
2005-67


3-year average: 65  

Lineup-The Rays will be seeking a more balanced attack in 2008. Here's a look:

C-Dioner Navarro(24): The Rays have high hopes for the young backstop in 2008 after he hit .285 after the all-star break after a woeful .177 average in the first half of the season.

1B-Carlos Pena(29): After getting only 33 major league at bats in the 2006 season in Boston, Pena was one of the biggest surprises in all of baseball in 2007. He slugged 46 homers for the Rays with an OPS of 1.038. Tampa is hopeful that Pena's stellar year wasn't a fluke.   

2B-Akinori Iwamura(29): After clubbing 106 homers in his last three years in the Japanese league, Iwamura could mange only seven homers in his first major league season. His lack of power at third base was a disappointment so he is making the transition to the middle infield in 2008.

SS-Jason Bartlett(28): The former Twin is being counted on for his glove more than his bat in his first year with the Rays. He lacks power but has a solid .282 batting average over the last two seasons.

3B-Evan Longoria(22): The Long Beach State product is viewed as one of baseball's top prospects as he prepares to make his major league debut this spring. A key to the development of the franchise heading into the next decade.

LF-Carl Crawford(26): The Rays franchise player hit above .300 for the third straight season in 2007.  

CF-B.J. Upton(23): After hitting just five homers in the first 95 games of his career in 2004 and 2006, Upton matured nicely in 2007 with 24 bombs and a .300 batting average.

RF-Rocco Baldelli(26): Injuries have limited Baldelli to just 127 games over the last two seasons. His average dipped nearly 100 points from .302 all the way down to .204 in 2007. He is only 26 but this is clearly a big year for Baldelli as his days in Tampa could be numbered if the injuries continue.   

DH-Cliff Floyd(35): The veteran will form a DH platoon with right-handed power hitter Johnny Gomes. Floyd is only three years removed from a 34 homer season with the Mets and his veteran presence should aid a young squad.

Overall lineup outlook(4 right-handed batters, 4 left-handed batters, and 1 switch-hitter): Tampa finished eighth in the AL in runs scored while ranking third in the league in homers. With an everyday lineup of players under the age of 30, Tampa should continue to progress in 2008. Pena will be hard pressed to repeat last year's dominant season but even a slight regression would be acceptable for the Rays. Longoria will face a lot of pressure to live up to the hype while Baldelli will be seeking a rebound year. The lineup has some nice balance with right-handed and left-handed bats. While the young club will likely face some inconsistency in 2008, the Rays should be able to make some more offensive strides this season.         

Starting rotation-The Rays finally have some hope with their starting arms heading into 2008.

LHP-Scott Kazmir(24): One of the AL's top young arms posted an E.R.A. of under 3 1/2 for the second straight season in 2007. He has averaged over a strikeout per inning in his major league career.

RHP-James Shields(26): A legitimate number two behind Kazmir, Shields delivered a solid 3.85 E.R.A. in 31 starts for Tampa last season. An outstanding walk-to-strikeout ratio for a young hurler as Shields walked only 36 batters in 2007 while posting 184 punch outs.

RHP-Matt Garza(24): The Rays hope he can be an upgrade to the middle of the rotation after coming over from the Twins with Bartlett for outfielder Delmon Young. Garza did post a 3.69 E.R.A. in 15 starts last year although he did allow 96 hits in 83 innings of work.   

RHP-Edwin Jackson(24): The former top pitching prospect of the Dodgers finally got a chance to be a full-time starter last season. He is a work in progress at this point after posting an E.R.A. of almost six but he came on to register a respectable 4.48 E.R.A. after the all-star break. 2008 will mark a key season in his development as a major league hurler.   

RHP-Andy Sonnanstine(25): His numbers were similar to those of Jackson in 2007 but the Rays are high on the potential of Sonnanstine. Like Shields, he has outstanding control for a young pitcher as Sonnanstine walked only 26 hitters over his 22 starts as a rookie.

Overall rotation outlook: Few teams can match the potential upside of the Tampa staring staff heading into 2008. With all of their hurlers in the mid 20's, the Rays have plenty of live arms to go to battle with. The keys will be the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation. Jackson and Sonnanstine have plenty of promise but they must improve in 2008 if the Rays are going to have a live shot at a .500 campaign. This starting group will have some ups and downs as they continue to learn how to be consistent starters at the major league level. Still, with Kazmir and Shields leading the way, the Rays will have a much better overall rotation over the entire season in 2008.    

Bullpen-The Rays are counting on some veterans to help a pen that was overworked in 2007.

Setup relief-RHP Al Reyes(38) was one of the few bright spots in the pen a year ago. The journeyman saved 26 of 30 save chances for the Rays and will now move to a setup role this season. After posting an E.R.A. of under 2 1/2 for the Astros from 2005-06, RHP Dan Wheeler(30) struggled to an E.R.A. of over five last year with the Astros and Rays. He will be counted on for a rebound year in 2008 in his first full year in Tampa. RHP Scott Dohmann(30) and RHP Juan Salas(29) will seek to build on their solid 2007 campaigns in 2008.  

Closer-RHP Troy Percival(38): An unlikely comeback story, Percival posted an E.R.A. of under two in 34 games for the Cardinals in 2007 after his retirement following the 2005 season. "Percy" allowed only 24 hits in 40 innings of work. In his prime with the Angels, Percival saved 313 games in a nine-year stretch from 1996-2004.  

Overall pitching outlook: Tampa easily led the majors in runs allowed in 2007 by giving up 944 runs. However, the figures were a little skewed. Kazmir and Shields were one of the top starting duos in the league. The rest of the starters struggled badly which led to an overworked pen. Starters 3-5 rarely went deep into games which exposed Tampa's suspect middle relief. Wheeler and Percival will play important roles in the bullpen although Percival has to be labeled as somewhat of a question mark as he approaches 40. The development of young starters Garza, Jackson, and Sonnanstine should enable the bullpen to have more structure in 2008 as these young arms should be able to pitch deeper into games this season. The overall bullpen is still a concern but the entire staff should be significantly better in 2008 following a rough 2007 campaign.  

Final recap and recommendation: The Devil Rays have been consistent losers in their ten years as a major league team. In each season, Tampa Bay has lost more than 90 games. There appears to be little doubt that this is the best team that Tampa has ever fielded heading into a season. Some big league scouts have even suggested that Tampa could be a .500 team in 2008. There is a solid foundation of young hitting and pitching talent to work with. The Rays will be an improved squad but there are still some concerns. The competition is one problem as there are seven teams in the AL that are projected to win at least 85 games. Then, there is the obvious obstacle of trying to reverse a losing culture that has been built up over a decade. This has led to some fan apathy and a dead environment in their home ballpark. While these factors will likely play a part in keeping Tampa from getting into .500 territory, the team has enough promise to avoid a 90-loss season for the first time in franchise history in 2008.     

OVER 73.5 WINS-* 1-Star

About DC Sports:

David Jones, of DC Sports, has been one of the top four most profitable team handicappers since becoming a Sportsmemo handicapper in December of 2006 (12/06-2/08). Here's more info on the four sports that he handicaps for Sportsmemo:

NFL-DC Sports has been profitable in the NFL since coming on board in December of 2006. He has hit on 63% of his 20* NFL releases with a 10-6 mark. David was especially strong with his NFL O/U reports over the course of the 2007 season with a 34-20 (63%) record.

College Football-DC Sports is 9-4 (69%) with his 20* NCAAF selections for a combined 20* football record of 19-10 (66%). He went on a stellar 47-21 (69%) NCAAF run to close the 2006 regular season in his releases that were posted in the Sportsmemo forum.

NBA-DC Sports was profitable in the NBA over the entire 2006-07 season. He has followed up that winning campaign with a solid 83-70 mark so far in the 2007-08 season (through 3/2/08).

MLB-DC Sports turned in a profitable 2007 MLB season. He posted a 19-11 (63%) record with his recommendations for all 30 teams in his 2007 regular season over/under wins blogs before the start of the season.