This is the 5th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for the 2008 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two levels of ranking (1-star and 2-stars).


Baltimore Orioles-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 65.5 (various sportsbooks)

Last 3 seasons wins totals

2007-69
2006-70
2005-74

3-year average: 71  

Lineup-Youngster Nick Markakis heads a lineup that is rounded out by mainly veterans. Here's a look:

C-Ramon Hernandez(31): Hernandez missed 56 games last season and his absence was felt. A solid hitting catcher, he still drove in 62 runs although his home run production dipped from 23 in 2006 down to 9 last year.

1B-Kevin Millar(36): Millar has been respectable in his two years with the O's but his power numbers are still below average for an AL first baseman. He also has less protection and gets fewer RBI opportunities compared to his days with the Red Sox.

2B-Brian Roberts(30): One of the O's top offensive threats could be in a Cubs uniform by the time opening day rolls around. He scored 103 runs last season and his departure would weaken an already questionable O's lineup.

SS-Luis Hernandez(23): The youngster will take over the shortstop duties after the trade of Miguel Tejada to the Astros. Baltimore will be looking for defense more than offense from Hernandez in 2008. He hit .290 as a rookie last year with just one homer in 69 at-bats.

3B-Melvin Mora(36): Since delivering a .981 OPS in 2004, Mora has faded in recent years. His OPS was just .759 last season as Mora drove in only 58 runs for the O's.

LF-Luke Scott(29): Acquired as part of the Tejada deal, Scott will likely platoon in left for Baltimore with veteran Jay Payton. In just under 600 at-bats over the last two seasons, Scott has hit 28 homers with 101 RBI's.

CF-Adam Jones(22): The key addition in a deal that sent lefty ace Erik Bedard to the Mariners. Jones hasn't hit yet (.230 career average in 139 at-bats) but he will get an ample opportunity to develop for the rebuilding Orioles.

RF-Nick Markakis(24): A star in the making for the O's. Markakis hit .300 with 112 RBI's in his second major league season in 2007.

DH-Aubrey Huff(31): After averaging more than 100 RBI's from 2003-05, Huff has slipped in the last couple of seasons. He has averaged only 69 RBI's in the last two years.

Overall lineup outlook(4 right-handed batters,3 left-handed batters, and 2 switch hitters): The O's moved up one spot in the AL runs scored rankings in 2007 as the AL's 9th best offense. With the departure of Tejada and a likely trade of Roberts on the horizon, the prospects for improvement in 2008 are slim. Veterans like Millar, Mora, and Huff are clearly on the decline. Youngsters like Luis Hernandez and Jones are being thrown into the fire with virtually no big league experience. With the exception of Markakis, the O's have little upside in their lineup. Look for the O's to be one of the three worst AL offenses in 2008.  

Starting rotation-With the trade of Bedard, the O's have a very suspect rotation heading into 2008.

RHP-Jeremy Guthrie(29): In one of the few moves that has worked out for Baltimore in recent years, the acquisition of Guthrie from Cleveland before last season could prove to be a steal for the O's. In 26 starts, he posted a 3.44 E.R.A. Without Bedard on board, Guthrie will face a lot of pressure as the new staff ace.

RHP-Daniel Cabrera(26): Instead of progressing, the young hurler is regressing after four years in the Baltimore rotation. His 5.55 E.R.A. last year was the worst of his career and control continues to be a major problem. He has allowed over 100 walks in each of the last two seasons.

LHP-Adam Loewen(24): Like Cabrera, Loewen has a live arm with some control problems. He allowed a whopping 26 walks in just 30.1 innings of work before going on the shelf early last season with an elbow injury.  

LHP-Garrett Olson(24): Another young pitcher who has had trouble throwing strikes. The lefty allowed 28 walks in just 32.1 innings as a rookie last year with an E.R.A. near eight.

LHP-Troy Patton(22): Another part of the Tejada deal, the lefty has only 12.2 innings of big league experience. He is trying to hold off another lefty, Brian Burress, for the last rotation spot this spring.

Overall rotation outlook: Even pitching guru Leo Mazzone couldn't boost the O's staff during his tenure as Baltimore's pitching coach. New pitching coach Mike Flanagan will face a major challenge with this raw staff in 2008. The projected starters, besides Cabrera, have made a combined total of just 61 starts heading into this season. While these young arms have some potential, these pitchers aren't viewed as elite prospects. The control problems are a huge concern as these pitchers will have trouble going deep into games. It figures to be a another rough year for the O's rotation in 2008.   

Bullpen-The O's pen struggled last year as the relief hurlers were overworked due to some suspect performances at the back of the rotation.

Setup relief-LHP Jamie Walker(36) and RHP Chad Bradford(33) were bright spots last year in their first campaigns in Baltimore as each veteran had an E.R.A. of under 3 1/2. The rest of the setup and middle relief roles are pretty wide open this spring. Baltimore is high on RHP Dennis Sarfate(27) who has 25 K's in just 16.2 innings in his two big league seasons with Milwaukee and Houston.

Closer-LHP George Sherrill(31): With incumbent closer Chris Ray expected to miss the 2008 season following elbow surgery, former Mariner Sherill will get the first opportunity to close this season. He posted an outstanding season as a setup hurler in Seattle last year with a 2.37 E.R.A. in 73 games

Overall pitching outlook: The Orioles ranked next to last in the AL in runs allowed for the second consecutive season in 2007. Without Bedard, the O's should tumble to the very bottom this season. The starters will have trouble going deep into games due to their wildness and inexperience. This will expose the team's suspect middle relief as the pen will likely wear down due to being overworked as the season progresses. It all adds up to a very weak overall staff that will suffer through a difficult 2008 season.

Final recap and recommendation: The O's have won less than 80 games in each of the last ten seasons. There is apathy now in Baltimore for this once proud franchise. The trades of their best hitter and pitcher this off-season have further dimmed hopes of Baltimore fans heading into 2008. The Orioles are projected to be the worst team in all of major league baseball this season. The O's seem to be destined to fulfill that gloomy forecast this season. The offense is very average while the pitching is even worse. While no MLB team reached the 100-loss mark a year ago, the 2008 Orioles are on track to reach that dubious record this season.  

UNDER 65.5 WINS: * 1-Star

About DC Sports:

David Jones, of DC Sports, has been one of the top four most profitable team handicappers since becoming a Sportsmemo handicapper in December of 2006 (12/06-2/08). Here's more info on the four sports that he handicaps for Sportsmemo:

NFL-DC Sports has been profitable in the NFL since coming on board in December of 2006. He has hit on 63% of his 20* NFL releases with a 10-6 mark. David was especially strong with his NFL O/U reports over the course of the 2007 season with a 34-20 (63%) record.

College Football-DC Sports is 9-4 (69%) with his 20* NCAAF selections for a combined 20* football record of 19-10 (66%). He went on a stellar 47-21 (69%) NCAAF run to close the 2006 regular season in his releases that were posted in the Sportsmemo forum.

NBA-DC Sports was profitable in the NBA over the entire 2006-07 season. He has followed up that winning campaign with a solid 84-70 mark so far in the 2007-08 season (through 3/3/08).

MLB-DC Sports turned in a profitable 2007 MLB season. He posted a 19-11 (63%) record with his recommendations for all 30 teams in his 2007 regular season over/under wins blogs before the start of the season.