This is the 7th of 30 blogs that will provide an analysis for every major league baseball team's projected OV/UN regular season wins total for the 2008 season. I will have a recommendation for each club with two levels of ranking (1-star and 2-stars).


Seattle Mariners-OV/UN Regular Season Wins Total: 83.5 (various sportsbooks)

Last 3 seasons wins totals

2007-88
2006-78
2005-69

3-year average: 78  

Lineup-The Mariners free swinging lineup has some nice depth. Here's a look:

C-Kenji Johjima(31): Johjima has averaged 16 HR's, 69 RBI's, and a .289 average in his two major league campaigns. A free swinging, contact hitter, Johjima has drawn only 35 walks while striking out just 87 times in 991 at-bats.

1B-Richie Sexson(33): Sexson had a woeful 2007 season after averaging 37 HR's and 114 RBI's in his first two years with the Mariners. He hit just .205 with an OPS of .694 last year. Sexson is still at an age to have a good chance at a rebound year in 2008.

2B-Jose Lopez(24): The youngster had only 30 extra base hits a year ago after producing 46 in that category in 2006. Another M's free swinger, Lopez has only 46 walks in over 1100 at-bats over the last two seasons.

SS-Yuniesky Betancourt(26): He has hit .289 in each of the last two years and drove in a respectable 67 runs a year ago. Like some of his teammates, Betancourt could use some better plate discipline. With over 1300 career at-bats, he has drawn only 43 walks.

3B-Adrian Beltre(29): Beltre hasn't quite lived up to his big free agent deal but he has still delivered some decent numbers in his time with the Mariners. He had his best season with the M's a year ago with 26 HR's and 99 RBI's.

LF-Raul Ibanez(35): A solid RBI bat, Ibanez has drove in 228 runs over the last two years.  

CF-Ichiro Suzuki(34): Suzuki produced his seventh straight year with at least 200 hits and 100 runs scored in 2007. A hitting machine who shows no signs of slowing down anytime soon after hitting .351 last year.

RF-Brad Wilkerson(30): He doesn't hit for a high average but Wilkerson has some pop. He had 20 HR's and 62 RBI's in just 338 at-bats for the Rangers last year. Wilkerson will likely take the bench against some left-handers this season.

DH-Jose Vidro(33): Vidro hit .314 in his first year for the Mariners but he has little punch for a DH who hit in the middle of the M's lineup in 2007. 140 of his 172 hits last year were singles.

Overall lineup outlook(5 right-handed batters, 3 left-handed batters, and 1 switch-hitter): Seattle moved up to the AL's 7th best offense in 2007 after ranking 13th in the league in runs scored in 2006. The strength of the lineup is its' depth as Seattle doesn't have an easy out in the order. A weakness is the lack of walks that the overall lineup is able to draw. Still, the solid line-drive bats in this lineup are able to overcome that flaw to be a strong overall offense. A rebound year from Sexson would make this offense even more dangerous in 2008. While the lack of walks will slow this lineup down a little, the Mariners should be able to rank in the upper half of AL offenses again this season.      

Starting rotation-The Mariners have a couple of big additions to their rotation for 2008.

LHP-Erik Bedard(29): The lefty's dominance was a little under the radar last season while hurling for the hapless Orioles. Bedard had 221 strikeouts while allowing just 141 hits in 182 innings in 2007. With better offensive support from his new club, a 20-win season isn't out of the question in his first year with the Mariners.

RHP-Felix Hernandez(22): While Hernandez has shown some flashes of brilliance in his brief career, he is still adjusting as a major league starter. Some view Hernandez as the next great young pitcher in baseball but last year didn't meet those projections. His 3.93 E.R.A. was solid although the fact that he allowed more hits (209) than innings pitched(190) was a little surprising considering his stuff. Bedard's arrival should take some pressure off of Hernandez in 2008.

RHP-Miguel Batista(37): Batista posted a career high 16 wins in his first year in Seattle in 2007. A solid middle of the rotation guy.  

RHP-Carlos Silva(29): The former Twin cashed in with a big free agent deal from the Mariners. Silva gives up a lot of hits but has outstanding control. His E.R.A. has been under 4.25 in three of the last four seasons.

LHP-Jarrod Washburn(33): The lefty has been a disappointment in his first two seasons with the Mariners with a 18-29 record and an E.R.A. of 4.49. If the M's are going to mount a serious playoff challenge this year, they will need Washburn to step up.   

Overall rotation outlook: Seattle's rotation has been significantly upgraded from a year ago. Bedard and Silva combined for a 3.70 E.R.A. in 2007. The two pitchers that they are replacing, Horacio Ramirez and Jeff Weaver, had a combined E.R.A. of 6.58 last season. The new additions bring some solid depth to the Seattle rotation. While Ramirez and Weaver had trouble going deep into games, all five of this year's starters should be able to go into the seventh inning a high percentage of the time. This will aid a good bullpen that was overworked last season. Seattle is poised to have one of the top five AL rotations this season.         

Bullpen-The Mariners bullpen will be looking to repeat its' solid campaign from a year ago.

Setup relief-With the trade of top setup reliver George Sherill to Baltimore as part of the Bedard deal, the Mariners will have to adjust some roles this year. RHP Sean Green(29) posted a 3.84 E.R.A. in 64 appearances in 2007. RHP Brandon Morrow(23) had a quality rookie season last year as he ranked second on the team in holds with 18. LHP Eric O' Flaherty(23) is a key specialist in the pen after posting a 7-1 record in 2007.

Closer-RHP J.J. Putz(31): Putz had one of the top seasons for any closer in the history of the game in 2007. He converted 40 of 42 save chances while allowing only 50 base runners in 71.2 innings of work with a 1.38 E.R.A.  

Overall pitching outlook: The Mariners finished 10th in the AL in runs allowed in 2007. They will be move up a few notches in this category in 2008. The rotation has been vastly improved and the depth of the starting staff is well above average. The best of Hernandez hasn't been seen yet but this could be the year where he becomes a true elite pitcher. Putz is arguably the game's best closer and the rest of the bullpen is respectable. The relievers should be able to develop a better rhythm in 2008 as the consistency of the starters will aid the pen. Look for Seattle to be the most improved pitching staff in the league in 2008.

Final recap and recommendation: Since a dreadful 63-win campaign in 2004, the Mariners have improved their win total in each of the last three seasons. Seattle won 88 games in 2007 despite having two of the worst starting pitchers in all of baseball in Ramirez and Weaver. The Mariners also won nearly 90 games even though Sexson struggled badly. The outlook for 2008 is very bright. The acquisitions of Bedard and Silva send a clear message to the other players and fans of the team. Seattle is aiming for a lot more than just another winning year in 2008. On offense, Suzuki is the ultimate catalyst who is supported by a deep lineup of bats. The solid rotation will keep Seattle in most games this year while Putz will continue his run as an elite closer. The team also should be able to take advantage of one of the best home fields in the league after posting 49 wins at Safeco Field in 2007. While Seattle will likely come up just a little short in their bid to unseat the Angels in the AL West this season, the Mariners will at least match their win total from a year ago and could very well get into the postseason if everything falls into place in 2008.       

OVER 83.5 WINS-** 2-Stars

About DC Sports:

David Jones, of DC Sports, has been one of the top four most profitable team handicappers since becoming a Sportsmemo handicapper in December of 2006 (12/06-2/08). Here's more info on the four sports that he handicaps for Sportsmemo:

NFL-DC Sports has been profitable in the NFL since coming on board in December of 2006. He has hit on 63% of his 20* NFL releases with a 10-6 mark. David was especially strong with his NFL O/U reports over the course of the 2007 season with a 34-20 (63%) record.

College Football-DC Sports is 9-4 (69%) with his 20* NCAAF selections for a combined 20* football record of 19-10 (66%). He went on a stellar 47-21 (69%) NCAAF run to close the 2006 regular season in his releases that were posted in the Sportsmemo forum.

NBA-DC Sports was profitable in the NBA over the entire 2006-07 season..

MLB-DC Sports turned in a profitable 2007 MLB season. He posted a 19-11 (63%) record with his recommendations for all 30 teams in his 2007 regular season over/under wins blogs before the start of the season.