MLB
Friday, July 25, 2008
Anaheim Angels (Saunders) at Baltimore Orioles (Burres) 

The rock-solid Angels travel to Baltimore tonight where they’ll face the struggling Orioles.  Joe Saunders will toe the rubber for the Halos.  The southpaw continues to outperform his expectation in 2008.  Overall he owns a glowing 12-5 record with a 3.05 ERA.  However, again I expect Saunders to regress as the season moves forward.  The trend from Saunders in seasons past was regression the second and third time he faces a team.  He added a curveball this season adding to his sinking fastball and change-up to give the opposition something else to think about.  On the campaign he’s allowed 15 home runs and Camden Yards has the highest home run factor in baseball this season.  He’s benefitted from a string of favorable match-ups of late as well.  The second time around against the Orioles this season, Baltimore should be able to plate their share of runs.  Meanwhile, Brian Burres is slated to start for the Orioles.  To show how ‘uphill’ the task of pitching in Baltimore is this season, Burres has allowed 13 of his 14 home runs in Camden Yards in 2008.  His peripheral numbers beg trouble as well, while owning just a 20/19 strikeout to walk ratio in his last seven starts.  He figures to only work about five innings in this contest, while the overworked Orioles bullpen adds fuel to the fire.  Look for this contest to go OVER the total tonight in Baltimore.
 

New York Yankees (Chamberlain) at Boston Red Sox (Beckett) 

As expected the Red Sox/Yankees series features  huge implications this weekend as the season moves forward into the final stages.  Young superstar Joba Chamberlain will get the call to the hill for the Yankees.  Of late, the hurler has taken another step forward as he gets his feet wet as a major league starting pitcher.  He’s sizzled in his last three starts, while allowing seven runs and boasting 22 strikeouts and just five walks.  Importantly in this match-up, he’s shown a tough customer in elevating the baseball.  In fact, he’s allowed just three home runs on the season.  Going back to last season he’s now allowed just four home runs in 95 major league innings.  Neutralizing power and missing bats will allow you to go very far in the big leagues.  Meanwhile, the post season dominator Josh Beckett will help the Red Sox renew this rivalry.  Really, when you break it down Beckett’s been a mix of his 2006 and 2007 seasons for the Red Sox.  He toiled at times in 2006 making the changes and adapting to the American League allowing 36 home runs.  Last year, Beckett surrendered just 17 long balls all season.  This season is right in between as the right-hander has allowed 15 home runs.  In the end, Beckett just isn’t missing bats this season, and I played the Yankees at a plus price on the five-inning line.
 

Seattle Mariners (Batista) at Toronto (Parrish) 

Sticking in the American League East the Mariners cross the border into Toronto tonight to battle the Blue Jays.  The Mariners have slated the reeling Miguel Batista to start.  He’s done nothing but struggle in 2008 for the most part, while fighting injury.  Currently, he’s a shell of his former self.  In the past Batista was more of a ground ball pitcher, but his groundball to flyball ratio has regressed mightily over the last two seasons.  Pitching in Toronto without his signature sinking fastball, while missing few bats is a recipe for disaster.  John Parrish will start for the Jays as the journeymen reliever is fighting an uphill battle trying to make it as a starting pitcher.  He just doesn’t own enough offerings to keep the opposition at bay, while missing too few bats as well.  Last out against Tampa Bay, the southpaw was extremely inefficient last just three frames, while allowing four runs.  The Mariners match-up favorably in this contest and with the bullpen expected to see plenty of work there should be no shortage of runs in this game.  Look to play this game and/or the five-inning line OVER the total.

Can the Tampa Bay Rays continue their first half magic?

No question in my mind the Rays have been the first half story of the season in Major League Baseball as they still stand in first place in the rugged American League East by a game and a half.  Especially when you consider they’re fighting the big market titans of baseball in the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox.

The road certainly won’t be easy as they’ve sizzled at home with a 39-15 record, but own a less convincing 19-25 record on the highway.  In fact, after their series finale against the Oakland A’s on Wednesday, the Rays will play 37 of their final 62 games on the road, or a -12 schedule.  There will be a tough stretch from September 2nd through September 21st where they’ll play a string of games against the Yankees, at Toronto, at Boston, at New York, Boston and Minnesota with one day off in the mix.  

The good news is they recently activated closer Troy Percival in the bullpen, which brings them leadership and all important depth.  In addition, they hope to activate shortstop Jason Bartlett as soon as Thursday from the disabled list.  Both players have quietly helped lead this team in 2008 as key cogs to reinforce the ship.  That leads to the rock solid team chemistry the Rays have shown all season.  In the off-season the Rays were able to deal Elijah Dukes and Delmon Young, as they talked privately about no one having their own agenda.

Meanwhile, for a stark contrast from recent seasons the starting pitching looks strong with Scott Kazmir leading the way.  He’s yet to pitch his best baseball of the season in my opinion. James Shields and Matt Garza can settle in right after Kazmir to give the Rays three difference-making hurlers.  The crapshoot just might come down to Andrew Sonnanstine and Edwin Jackson rounding out the rotation.  

Importantly, the Rays losing streak right before the All-Star break just might have been the best thing to happen to this team.  Yes, they lost seven games in a row, but it was vital they showed an ability to take a knockout punch and get back on their feet.  If this streak didn’t take place until August or September, the Rays perhaps would find it much tougher to get back on their feet.

Finally, their war of words on the field and off with the Yankees was a clear sign this team wasn’t going to back down.  Further, they went through a similar situation with the Red Sox earlier in the campaign.  All of this has helped season the youthful Rays for what looks like a storybook season.  

Obviously, with the trade deadline looming and many more resourceful teams in the mix, the next few weeks will paint a clearer picture.  However, I believe the Rays will make the playoffs and bring some refreshing new blood into the postseason.

MLB
Friday, July 18, 2008
Cleveland Indians (Laffey) at Seattle Mariners (Hernandez) 

The second half of the Major League Baseball season starts in Seattle with arguably the two most disappointing teams with the Indians and Mariners.  Felix Hernandez is expected to take the mound for the Mariners.  He’s featured a dominant ERA in 2008 which stands at 2.95, while receiving very little run support or bullpen help for that matter.  In addition King Felix has been hampered by an ankle injury of late, but all reports have him good to go to start the second half of the season.  He matches up favorably in this contest as well, while the Tribe will still be missing two key left-handed bats in Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez.  Over his last six starts Felix boasts a dominating 39/6 strikeout to walk ratio, and there’s really no reason he can’t dominate the Indians lineup tonight on his home turf.  Meanwhile, Aaron Laffey is expected to toe the rubber for the Indians.  Laffey hit the ground running for the Indians with a string on sound starts in May.  However, he’s toiled back into the mediocre version of late, while he hardly possesses the peripheral numbers of his mound peer tonight.  In addition, he totes an alarming 5.76 ERA on the highway.  The Mariners have actually played much better baseball under interim manager Jim Riggelman, and a couple of ninth inning meltdowns have cost the Mariners as well.  This seems a cheap price with dominating Felix to start.  I mixed my personal wager with the five-inning line in this contest tonight on the Mariners.  
 

Oakland A’s (Smith) at NY Yankees (Mussina) 

The ‘rebuilding’ A’s head to the Bronx tonight where they’ll battle the ‘win now’ Yankees.  Billy Beane was at it again yesterday, while pedaling league average Joe Blanton for three prospects to the Philadelphia Phillies.  On the field the A’s will send another youngster to the hill in left-hander Greg Smith.  Smith’s done a fine job for the A’s this season, while pitching to a 3.43 ERA.  He’s a heady, cerebral type who should be fully prepared to take on the Bombers tonight.  The 24-year-old is especially tough on the left-handed bat, which you always like to see against this Yankees lineup and in this stadium.  In addition, this will be the first time around for Smith against the Yankees in his short career.  Meanwhile, the veteran and cagey Mike Mussina is scheduled to start for the Yankees.  Talk about ‘smoke and mirrors’ this season as he shows a 3.61 ERA.  He’s missing very few bats these day, which I expect to catch up to him in the second half, and especially with a below average defense behind him.  Finally, I give the edge to the A’s in the bullpen with much more depth than their counterpart.  I do think the A’s can get this game at a sweet underdog price, however if you’re looking for a real score think about an A’s to the OVER parlay, which will pay just under 4-1. 
 

Philadelphia Phillies (Moyer) at Florida Marlins (Nolasco) 

The National League East will heat up starting tonight as the Phillies hit South Beach to challenge the upstart Marlins.  The Fish will send the red-hot Ricky Nolasco to the mound.  The finally healthy right-hander’s been ‘lights out’ of late.  The Marlins have won his last seven starts, while he boasts a blazing 48/5 strikeout to walk ratio.  Note, he’s added a cut fastball this year, which has also given him new life.  That pitch especially key against the left-handed bat, which comes in huge against this Phillies lineup.  He’s faced the Phillies twice this season, while allowing just two earned runs.  Meanwhile, a very opposite Jamie Moyer will toe the rubber for the Phillies.  Once again the soft-throwing southpaw has largely giving the Phillies a chance to win each time he climbs the hill.  Still give me power over finesse out of the All-Star break and a pick’em price on the five-inning line was the way I went with the Marlins and Nolasco.

NY Mets (Santana) at Cincinnati Reds (Cueto) – Who needs Rick Peterson?  The Mets pitching staff has all of the sudden thrived since Peterson was fired and replaced by Dan Warthen.  Warthen has already turned around Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey with sound adjustments.  Next on the list is Johan Santana, and while nothing major is needed with one of the best pitchers in the game, Santana recently made a subtle adjustment of standing taller on the mound with a few other tweaks.  The left-hander’s velocity has been a tick or two down this season, but he still owns a 2.84 ERA, while Mets amazingly recently lost six straight games Santana started.  He’s known as a second half hurler and I would expect Santana to put up rock-solid numbers moving forward this season.  Meanwhile, Johnny Cueto’s rookie campaign has been a roller coast ride while hitting the ground running early, and then losing his mechanics before righting the ship of late.  The flyballer has allowed 20 home runs already and that’s concerning in this game tonight with two flyball pitchers on the mound as the weather heats up in Cincinnati.  Still, this sets up as a pitcher’s duel.

SD Padres (Peavy) at St. Louis Cardinals (Lohse) – The Padres stumble into the second half of the campaign, while fortunately one of their few bright spots will toe the rubber tonight in Jake Peavy.  Interesting as what a difference a year can make as Peavy won the Cy Young last year with a 2.54 ERA, while his ERA this season stands at 2.47.  The right-hander has fought through an elbow strain in 2008 as his two recent outings reflect his ‘old self’, while not allowing a run and a 13/2 strikeout to walk ratio.  On the other hand pitching for big free agent money Kyle Lohse has excelled in the Cardinals rotation this season.  His ERA sits at a paltry 3.39, while he boasts an 11-2 record.  In fact the Cardinals have won 10 of his last 11 starts.  A bit concerning are his peripheral numbers that really don’t support his ERA moving forward to the second half of the season.  I looked to play this game UNDER the total, but at 7.5 I just didn’t see the all important value. 

Pittsburgh Pirates (Maholm) at Colorado Rockies (Jimenez) – The home/road dichotomy special of the day.  Both of these pitchers generally pitch their best baseball on their separate home turf.  With Jimenez entering this contest as about a -145 favorite this dichotomy seems accounted for.  On the campaign Maholm shows a 3.93 ERA, but that numbers spikes to 4.81 on the road.  Meanwhile, Jimenez shows a 4.22 overall ERA, but a sweet 2.67 number in Coors Field.  Both enter the thin air of Colorado as groundball pitchers, and Jimenez especially matches up well against the Pirates bats.  With Maholm as good as ‘gold’ of late I think this one goes UNDER 5.5 runs in the first five innings. 

Detroit Tigers (Rogers) at Baltimore Orioles (Olson) – The 43-year-old Gambler is expected to toe the rubber for the Tigers in Kenny Rogers.  He’s been up and down this season, but has pitched pretty sturdy baseball since late May.  I’ll pay attention to the match-ups in this game, which point clearly to the Tigers early.  The weather expects to be warm with a temperature at or near the 90 degree mark at first pitch.  Camden Yards has played very homer friendly already this season.  Rogers is more of a groundball guy, while tougher against the left-handed bat.  That’s exactly what you want against this heavy left-handed O’s aggressive lineup.  Meanwhile, the left-handed flyballer Garrett Olson gets the start for the Orioles.  He’s only allowed nine home runs this season, but again features a 0.84 groundball-flyball ratio.  Against this heavy right-handed Tigers line-up, the southpaw will be pitching uphill in a big way against the Tigers tonight.  I’ll look for the Tigers and Rogers to win this battle on the five-inning line and near pick’em price.      

I take very few days off over the course of the year, while always focusing so intently on the NBA and MLB.  One would think I’d cherish my three-day break at the MLB All-Star break, but there’s money to be made tonight.  That’s right the Home Run Derby is a sound moneymaker, while I’ve given out profitable advice over the last few years.  Tonight looks much the same as I look at the candidates… 

Lance Berkman – At 32-years-old Berkman is having a monster season with 22 home runs already.  He’s the veteran of this bunch in many ways, while entering his fourth MLB All-Star Derby, and the rest of the field has combined for just one entry.  Berkman won this contest back home in Houston in 2004, while a nonfactor in 2002 and 2006.  I remember specifically loading up against him in the match-ups in the 2006 contest that took place in Pittsburgh.  Berkman looks like a ‘go-against’ once again, while it sounds like he’ll bat right-handed tonight, which puts him slugging uphill in Yankee Stadium.  In addition, he won’t have his regular derby pitcher as Mark Bailey didn’t make the trip and Berkman was still looking for someone to throw to him.  I specially looked to back Justin Morneau and Chase Utley against Berkman.   

Chase Utley – The Philadelphia Phillies wonder player who’s doing it all in 2008, which includes 25 home runs.  Utley has talked about being more of a line drive hitter, which includes his batting practice habits.  However, he also mentions he’s ‘in it to win it’ and Utley can adjust and do what he wishes as well as anyone in Major League Baseball.  The left-hander will have the Phillies bullpen catcher and regular batting practice pitcher Mick Billmeyer on board tonight.  I played Utley in a few different match-ups with a shot to win tonight as well.   

Dan Uggla – Uggla just might have the best ‘pull’ and maybe even ‘raw’ power in the field tonight, which gives him a chance to win.  Of all the right-handers in the contest the stocky right-hander figures the best shot tonight.  However, a recent ankle injury gives concerns about Uggla bringing home the title.  He’s only played in four games since he returned from the injury and he hasn’t clubbed a game homer since June 20.  I doubt if he’ll have the endurance to win tonight.  In addition, he’s still looking for someone to throw to him tonight, as his regular batting practice hurlers didn’t make the trip.   

Ryan Braun – No question the 24-year-old can ‘rake’ as he’s spiked 57 home runs already since his rookie call-up last season.  I’m not sure this is the ‘stage’ or venue for the right-handed hitter.  He’s been dealing with a hand injury since late June, while hitting just three big league home runs the last month.  Braun has picked his agent as his pitcher tonight, while regular Dale Sveum takes a vacation.  I looked to ‘fade’ this slugger.   

Josh Hamilton – The Natural is the ‘natural’ favorite tonight.  With frightening raw power, legendary batting practice displays and a short porch in right field, yes the feel good story of the year is the deserving pick to click.  In another Hamilton story he’s fulfilling a promise by choosing  71-year-old arm and hometown local Clay Council to pitch him the Derby.  A bit concerning are lingering and slight hand/knee injuries, which has sapped his power.  He’s hit only two home runs since June 17.   

Grady Sizemore – The American League leader with 23 home runs at the break is my ‘sleeper’ for tonight.  He’s toting his regular batting practice pitcher to New York, while putting in some practice for the event over the last week.  The right field fence figures to be kind to Sizemore as his home target is 11 feet further out.  Again, don’t rule out.   

Evan Longoria – In my mind, the Tampa Bay Ray young superstar is the longest shot in the field tonight.  The more line drive hitter will figure to have a difficult time navigating Yankee Stadium.  In his own words, ‘I’m not very good at these home run contests.’  Longoria owns just one home run since June 28.   

Justin Morneau – Again, besides Berkman the only other player with ‘Derby’ experience with a disappointing effort last year in San Francisco.  However, I can’t overemphasize how this venue is a much, much better fit for the power left-hander.  The short porch in right field is a perfect fit for the strapping Morneau and I think he deserves co-favorite billing.