Five SEC teams play their final non-conference game tonight before tipping off SEC play this weekend. No. 7 Texas (11-2) travels to Fayetteville to take on Arkansas (11-1), where the Razorbacks are 9-0 this season including a win over no. 4 Oklahoma. ESPN2 will carry the action with nearly 19,000 ‘Hogs hoops fans ready at Walton Arena. Arkansas lost 86% of its scoring from last season, but the young Razorbacks are still soaring under second-year coach John Pelphrey. Arkansas has won 8-straight games while scoring at least 79 points in seven of those wins, including 96 against Oklahoma. Michael Washington has flourished at forward his junior season, leading the Razorbacks in scoring and rebounding (17/10). He poured in 24 points and pulled down 11 rebounds in just 26 minutes a week ago in the win over Oklahoma and his battle with Blake Griffin. Three freshman start for Arkansas, including point guard Courtney Fortson, last season’s Mr. Basketball from Alabama. The sub-6 foot guard is a stat sheet stuffer with over 15ppg, 7apg and surprisingly over five rebounds per game.

Washington will need help inside from freshman forward Michael Sanchez and Marcus Monk, a reserve who joined the team in December after playing wide receiver for the football team. Arkansas has actually out-rebounded opponents by 10 boards per game. However, Texas features a formidable front line led by Damion James (14ppg/9rpg). A pair of 6-10 big bodies patrol the paint in skilled senior Connor Atchley and 300lb Dexter Pittman. Gary Johnson is another big body off the bench that provides good energy and intensity for the ‘Horns while getting over six rebounds per game and 10ppg. However, Texas is led by small senior guard A.J. Abrams, a 19ppg player that can score from anywhere on the floor. The match-up between Abrams and Fortson will be worth watching with their skills and scoring ability. Both players also provide a defensive dimension along the perimeter with their quickness and athletic ability. Texas is holding opponents to fewer than 60ppg and less than 39% shooting from the field including under 31% from the arch. They pull down 40 rpg and lead the Big 12 in blocked shots with over six per contest. The Longhorns weakness has been at the free throw line where they make under 64% of their shots, but the Razorbacks also struggle at the charity stripe averaging just 65%.

Texas has played the toughest non-conference schedule of any Big-12 team with wins over UCLA and Wisconsin while suffering close losses to Michigan State and Notre Dame. The Longhorns out-rebounded all four of those opponents and have more experience and team togetherness than the young Razorbacks. Texas should be inspired for this non-conference game knowing Arkansas beat Oklahoma. John Pelphrey is doing a great job with his young team, but tonight the ‘Horns will hurt his ‘Hogs with too much strength inside and deliver the road win.

In other SEC action, LSU (12-1) hits the highway for their first true road game at the Huntsman Center against Utah (9-5). LSU has played an ultra-soft schedule thus far and traveling to altitude and playing a Utah team that beat Gonzaga a week ago and is playing their best ball of the season is not a promising proposition. Georgia (9-5) beat Georgia Tech (8-5) last season and both teams have been hurt by injuries, bad losses and few quality wins. The return of Bulldogs senior swingman Terrance Woodbury last game (27 points) following a four game absence with an ankle injury provides Georgia with added strength inside to help feshman forward Trey Thompkins, the teams leading scorer and rebounder. Here’s another link explaining some of the early season struggles and consistency issues for the Bulldogs and Yellow Jackets. Alabama (10-3) is up against it tonight as a big double-digit ‘Dog traveling to Clemson (12-0), where the Tigers remain as one of just four undefeated teams in the nation. Clemson has a #5 RPI ranking and has climbed to #12 in the AP poll; the Tigers highest ranking since 1997. Three ACC teams are ranked in the top 5, and Clemson will be tested early in conference play as they play #4 Wake Forest and #3 North Carolina in their first three conference games. 

Following BYU’s home loss to Wake Forest Saturday in a game we called for the end of BYU’s 53-game home winning streak, Notre Dame now owns the nation’s longest home winning streak at 43 games. Tonight they’ll try to extend the streak against a more physical and formidable Georgetown defense. Notre Dame is off a bad road loss to St. John’s, and this article tells a little about tonight’s tip regarding the Irish’s lack of athleticism and what they are up against tonight.

Georgetown (10-2/1-1) has won five in a row and six of last seven games against Notre Dame (10-3/1-1), but have not visited South Bend in since the Hoya’s double overtime victory three years ago. On the surface, this looked like a good bounce back play on Notre Dame, but like the BYU match-up against Wake Forest, the Hoyas are the tougher team with better team rebounding and defense despite Notre Dame star Luke Harangody (23ppg/12rpg) providing solid play in the paint. Georgetown has bigger and more physical guards to lock down on Kyle McAlarney and Tory Jackson. Along with senior swingman Ryan Ayers, all three of the Notre Dame outside shooters are hitting over 43% from the 3-point line. Their ability to execute in the half court and free up more open looks and make those shots will be key. Georgetown freshman center Greg Monroe and forward DuJuan Summers will battle Harangody inside in hopes to minimize second chance opportunities. Notre Dame’s depth is a concern as well, as the bench provided just seven points at St. John’s.

Georgetown beat #2Connecticut on the road before losing at home to conference favorite #3Pittsburgh Saturday; the Hoya’s worst home loss in four seasons. Georgetown must regroup quickly for the tough task facing their young lineup that also lacks depth. I’m not ready to invest in the Irish despite their strength at home. Check out the action on ESPN and watch and learn for future Big East battles.

We’re getting back in our groove this New Year and cashed a pair of lopsided Pac-10 wins yesterday with USC and Arizona State, as the Sun Devils delivered a 20* Big Drive winner with a 30-point pounding (90-60) of Stanford to end their undefeated season. Both USC and ASU won by over 20 points on the road, as the Pac-10 home courts are off to a 1-3 SU start following last seasons mediocre home court record in conference play. Be sure to check back Sunday morning as we’ll be back on the tee and ready to take another shot at the green in Pac-10 play. For good measure we kicked off the NFL playoffs with a top-rated 20* Big Drive winner on the Arizona Cardinals. Let’s see if we can chip-in a complimentary call tonight in Provo, Utah where Wake Forest (12-0) looks to snap BYU’s (11-1) nation best home winning streak.

This past week I provided a brief analysis and write-up in the Sportsmemo newsletter for today’s key non-conference game between BYU and #6 Wake Forest. I thought I would chip-in a little more today. Wake Forest is the highest ranked non-conference opponent to ever visit the Marriott Center. No doubt BYU will be looking to make a statement following their semi-embarrassing 79-62 loss to Wake Forest last season and improve their home record and NCAA tournament resume. The nations longest home winning streak belongs to BYU, as the Cougars have won 53 consecutive games at the Marriott Center and stand 116-10 on their home floor the past 8+ seasons. With a full house tonight and a seating capacity of 22,700, the Marriott Center is one of the most cavernous basketball arenas in the country. The massive interior of the arena has caused many perimeter shooters problems with the difficult depth perception. BYU has held a decided edge on their home floor, but the match-up and interior strength of Wake Forest could prove problematic in Provo tonight.

Wake Forest features a big, physical front line with three powerful players patrolling the paint and banging the boards. James Johnson and Chas McFarland join freshman phenom Al Farouq Aminu who leads the team in rebounding (9rpg) with all three players hitting over 50% of their shots and scoring over 10ppg. Sophomore guard Jeff Teague leads the Deacons in scoring, assists and hits over 52% of his shots, while junior guard L.D. Williams has improved his shooting to join all Wake Forest starters hitting over 50% of their shots. The overall improved play and shooting from a deeper group of guards has regulated last years starting point guard and ultra quick player Ishmael Smith to a regular reserve role. Wake Forest is averaging over 82ppg and a scoring margin over 22ppg. Along with a determined Deacons defense that holds opposition to just 36% FG shooting and out-rebounds their opponents by over 11rpg, Wake Forest has the personnel and experience to end BYU’s 53-game home winning streak.

BYU has been bet up to a 3.5 favorite today, and the Cougar’s preferred play and strength is from the perimeter where 6-7 senior guard Lee Cummard and junior swingman Jonathan Tavernari both score over 18ppg with Tavernari leading the team in rebounding (7rpg). Cummard was last season’s Mountain West Conference co-player of the year and provides great leadership and a solid overall game. The Cougars use a three-man rotation at center/power forward led by the improved play of Chris Miles. But the overall lack of interior strength with be a tough match-up against the Demon Deacons. Sophomore point guard Jimmer Fredette has taken over a starting spot this season and leads the Cougars in assists while scoring 14ppg. Fellow sophomore starting guard Jackson Emery is a solid shooter hitting over 55% of his shots and providing some solid strength defending the perimeter.

In last season’s meeting in Winston-Salem, Wake Forest dominated BYU and locked down on the more experienced and solid BYU shooters. Both BYU and Wake Forest are willing to push the pace and are both among the nations top-3 field goal shooting teams with each hitting over 51% this season. We had to wait again for a total on this game, and plenty of scoring expected with a posted total of 155. Wake Forests imposing front line and solid perimeter defense can match-up well against BYU’s strength, and in a marquee non-conference match-up televised on the Mountain, we’ll call for the end of the nations longest home winning streak.

Pac-10 play tips off with the league’s top two teams in non-conference play. Stanford (10-0) is the surprise team thus far under first year head coach Johnny Dawkins. Stanford is projected to finish near the bottom of the Pac-10 standings by many preseason publications and pundits, but can’t deny the solid start despite Stanford’s strength of schedule (SOS - 202). The team has adapted well to a new system and more up-tempo style, and Stanford is scoring over 80ppg with seven of their wins at home at Maples Pavilion. However, Stanford will now face their first ranked opponent and one of the league favorites and top defensive teams in #17 Arizona State. Both Stanford and Arizona State have outscored their opponents by over 15ppg in non-conference play, trailing only UCLA in scoring margin. Stanford’s more open style of play and Arizona’s sharp shooting have taken the total for tonight’s game up to 141 points, a full 20 points higher than both of last year’s contests between the two teams.

Arizona State (11-1) finished last in the Pac-10 just two seasons ago, but head coach Herb Sendek has quickly turned the fortunes for the Sun Devils and ASU is off to their best start in 34 years. Arizona State’s defense is solid again this season, holding non-conference opponents under 60ppg and just 39% field goal shooting while facing a little tougher schedule than Stanford. The Sun Devils’ only loss was to another high-scoring team, Baylor. But the Bears shoot the ball more efficiently than Stanford and are quicker and defend better than the Cardinal, which should help ASU in preparation for their style. Arizona State is one of the most efficient shooting teams in the country and hitting over 50% from the floor led by the league’s top scorer in sophomore guard James Harden (23ppg). And while the smooth southpaw Harden is hitting over 57% of his shots including 46% from the arch, his talent and versatility is unmatched as he’s also dishing out over four assists per game and banging the boards with six rebounds per contest. He’ll be one of the Pac-10’s top performers in conference play and clearly a league MVP, All-American and national player of the year candidate. Senior forward Jeff Pendergraph provides the Sun Devils a solid post presence and leads ASU in rebounding and is also hitting over 65% of his shots which is a Pac-10 best in non-conference play. Arizona State hits a league-best 75% from the free throw line, and along with experienced guards Ty Abbott and Derek Glasser, who leads the league in assist/turnover ratio, the Sun Devils should improve on their nine (9) conference wins last season and make a run for the Pac-10 title. Arizona State enters Pac-10 play off three outstanding offensive performances, including a win over BYU. Their last two lopsided wins over inferior foes brought the following comment from Idaho State coach Joe O’Brien regarding ASU’s performance and team record 17 made 3-pointers. "In 30 years, I don’t think I’ve been involved in a game where the opponent shot the ball that well for that long."

Stanford has an experienced and upper class nucleus with five regulars starting every game thus far. Anthony Goods leads the team in scoring from the perimeter while fellow senior Mitch Johnson directs the Cardinal from the point. Both players shoot over 40% from the arch, and Johnson is the key to Stanford’s perimeter defense that has held opponents to a league-best 29% shooting from beyond the arch. However, that perimeter defense will be challenged by an top-shooting and efficient ASU offense that takes 46% of their shots from the 3-point line and makes 40% of those shots beyond the arch. Along with guard Landry fields and regular reserve guards Kenny Brown and freshman Jeremy Green, Stanford has the fewest turnovers and created the most to lead the league in turnover margin. That was against lesser competition however, and problems likely persist on the interior despite solid production from senior forward Lawrence Hill, as Stanford is ninth in conference rebounding while ASU out-rebounds opponents by over five per game. Stanford is last in field goal defense (46%) despite playing a soft schedule, and that defensive deficiency and inability to guard will likely prove problematic against better teams in Pac-10 play.

Conference play brings another level of intensity and focus in team play. Arizona State is a methodical and very efficient team that forces opponents be their best in the half court. Coach Sendek is a terrific tactician and his teams play with great energy and preparation, especially on the defensive end of the floor where their combination zone defense and man rotations can bottle up even the best shooters. That should be the difference against Stanford, and we’ll call for the undefeated Cardinal to fall as the superior coach, defense and star player prevail on the road.

Pac-10 play tips off today, and while the conference is down from last season after losing so much top talent to the NBA, it is still competitive and looks like eight teams will battle for perhaps five NCAA Tournament bids. Don’t expect Pac-10 favorite UCLA to win the league by three games again or any team to win 16 games in conference play. The Bruins have not demonstrated they will be a national power that was expected again, and the Pac-10 is just 1-9 SU against teams that are currently ranked in the top-25 with projected top teams UCLA, Arizona State and USC going 0-4. However Cal, Stanford and Arizona have been better than expected and will push for a NCAA bid. The league is still loaded with some top-end talent that project to be high NBA picks; James Harden (ASU), Darren Collison and Jrue Holliday (UCLA), Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill (Arizona) and freshman DeMar DeRozan (USC).

The Pac-10 conference posted a 31-3 record over the past two weeks and is 88-29 (75%) in non-league play; a little below last seasons success and stellar non-conference performance of 79% win rate.

Here is a brief look at the teams as provided by a conference reporter and I’ve chipped-in some additional thoughts on each team as well. Check back later today as I may post my analysis on a match-up this evening.

UCLA: Non-conference games exposed a void in the paint, and the Bruins have no substitute for the dynamic play of departed Russell Westbrook. UCLA is a little undersized and less experienced in the post, but with Collison handling things at the point, Holiday improving and Ben Howland's defense choking opponents, UCLA remains the team to beat, especially now that Josh Shipp is healthy.

Arizona State: Harden's numbers in nearly every category are turning heads, and Herb Sendek's combination defense keeps the Sun Devils in every game. Harden leads the league in scoring (23ppg) and Pendergraph leads in shooting (65% FG). ASU does not have the overall talent to cruise past anyone, and while they rely heavily on the three-pointer and try to set-up some backdoor plays, it will take some solid defenders to hold off Harden and ASU’s solid shooters.

USC: DeRozan has not been dominant, but he has improved lately. Tim Floyd can devise special defenses to stymie Pac-10 opponents, and Taj Gibson is a top-notch big man in a conference lacking in top-notch big men. The Trojans are getting solid production from experienced 6-5 guards Dwight Lewis and Daniel Hackett, and while freshman forward Leonard Washington (ankle) will miss several Pac-10 games, USC benefits with the addition of Connecticut transfer Marcus Johnson, who became eligible last week.

Arizona: With perhaps the best Pac-10 players at two positions - Budinger at small forward and Hill at center - the Wildcats are automatically a threat against anyone and wins over Gonzaga and Kansas prove the point. Some tough losses could follow with inexperience interim head coach Russ Pennell guiding the Wildcats, but Arizona in the mix again for their 25^th straight NCAA Tournament appearance.

Washington: The Huskies have won seven in a row, and despite so-so-play, they have the talent to finish near the top. Jon Brockman has been slowed by injuries but should be effective in conference play. Freshman point guard Isaiah Thomas has been impressive, but Pac-10 play is a different challenge. Washington has nine players averaging at least 15 minutes per game and the Huskies are pushing the pace while also sporting a better defensive presence and the league’s top offensive rebounding team.

Cal: Jerome Randle was supposed to be the question. Turns out he's the answer. The most improved player in the conference, the point guard gives the Bears a shot at the postseason after being picked to finish near the bottom. First-year Cal coach Mike Montgomery is familiar with the league following great success at rival Stanford, and Randle, Patrick Christopher and Theo Robertson, the nations top 3-point shooter, provide solid shooting from the perimeter.

Washington State: Experience is required in the intricate Tony Bennett defense, and the Cougars miss graduated Derrick Low and Kyle Weaver. Their tough non-conference schedule and grinding style should serve them well in conference play. Freshman Klay Thompson can score, but point guard Taylor Rochestie has not shot well. The Cougars are holding opponents to under 50ppg and 34% shooting, both league bests, but they will have to score more themselves as those numbers will rise facing better players and teams more familiar with coach Bennett’s style.

Stanford: The Cardinal are undefeated and unranked, which shows what a mystery they are. They might be great some games and mediocre others, but should do better than the predicted ninth-place finish. First year coach Johnny Dawkins should get a wake up call in conference play, but the Cardinal players have adapted well to Dawkins up-tempo style and system and Stanford has three experienced seniors in Mitch Johnson, Anthony Goods and Lawrence Hill to provide leadership through some tough times.

Oregon: The Ducks are relying on freshmen and making too many mistakes. Starting guards Tajuan Porter and Garrett Sim have nearly as many turnovers (46) as assists (51). Oregon is 2-5 in its past seven games, including an overtime home win against Portland. Freshman Michael Dunigan and Sim provide promise for the future, but coach Ernie Kent will feel the heat throughout the season.

Oregon State: The Beavers are improving under Craig Robinson, especially since Calvin Haynes regained academic eligibility two weeks ago. They could win a few conference games, but that season-opening loss to Howard showed how far they have to go. Oregon State has won 4-in a row entering conference play, and the Beavers were 0-16 in Pac-10 play last year. They may lose their first eight again before a non-conference opponent visits Corvallis the end of January.

I was doing my research on the upcoming conference basketball games as we head into the New Year and thought I would chip-in some thoughts on Big Ten basketball. Conference play tips-off tonight in West Lafayette between Purdue and Illinois. Big Ten basketball has led the nation in attendance 32 years in a row and early season results prove that the Big Ten conference appears better than most pundits anticipated.

The Big Ten heads into conference action with a 105-25 (.808) win percentage for its best non-conference start in 20 years. Six top-5 teams have been beaten this season, and the Big Ten is responsible for three of those upsets. Michigan State beat then-no. 5 Texas and Michigan upset Duke and UCLA; both no. 4 at the time. Minnesota (12-0) remains one of just nine undefeated teams in the nation, and while the Gophers have played a soft schedule with mostly home games, they proved to be a legitimate team with a solid neutral court win over no. 9 Louisville on December 20th. The Gophers are off to their best start in 32 years in their second season under head coach Tubby Smith. Illinois (12-1) has three sophomores leading their resurgence (McCamey, Davis and Tisdale) with another, Alex Legion, in action as of December 20th following a transfer from Kentucky. Penn State (11-2) is off to their best start since 1995-96 led by the leagues leading scorer, point guard Talor Battle.   He provides a solid inside/outside combo with senior forward Jamelle Cornley and improved fellow sophomore forwards David Jackson and Andrew Jones.  Ohio State (9-1) has wins over nationally ranked Miami and Notre Dame but will sorely miss swingman David Lighty who broke his foot two weeks ago and is out until March. Michigan (10-2) has clearly made major improvements with a pair of big wins over top-5 teams and coach John Beilein’s impact is paying off in year two for Big Blue following a 10-win season last year. The two conference favorites Purdue (11-2) and Michigan State (9-2) appear primed to battle for the Big Ten title which Wisconsin (11-3) won last season.   The Badgers should be a formidable foe again with three returning upperclassman (Hughes. Landry, Krabbenhoft) along with the Big Ten’s sixth man of the year in guard Jason Bohannon, who is now a starter and hands over sixth man duties to improved sophomore forward Jon Leuer. Wisconsin has three losses to ranked opponents, and opens conference play at #23 Michigan Wednesday night.   Of course, the Badgers are at their best in Madison at the Kohl Center where Wisconsin has gone 129-10 under head coach Bo Ryan including 16-2 last season when Marquette snapped their 28-game home winning streak.  Purdue has a solid win over Davidson and their only two losses were to top-6 teams Duke and Oklahoma while Michigan State is back on course following a win over Texas after suffering a pair of lopsided losses to Maryland and North Carolina while playing without senior center Goran Suton.

A week ago the Big Ten was the top conference in non-conference RPI ranking, and now stands second at .5851, just behind the ACC at .5995. The Big Ten enters the New Year with five teams ranked in the AP top-25, and some sensational sophomores are leading the way this season after learning their way as freshman. Penn State’s Talor Battle and Michigan’s Manny Harris lead the league in non-conference scoring with each at 19 ppg, and Battle also leads the league in minutes played. Michigan State’s Kalin Lucas leads the conference with a 6.45 assist-to-turnover ratio, while sharp-shooter Durrell Summers paces the Big Ten in three-point FG percentage (53.6) coming off the bench. Ohio State’s Evan Turner (16 ppg/50% FG) leads the league in steals (2.70) per game and teammate Dallas Lauderdale leads the conference in blocked shots per game (3.2). Illinois’ Mike Davis rounds out the list of many sensational sophomores as he leads the league with an average of 6.15 defensive rebounds per game. Al Nolan (6.2 assists per game) and Blake Hoffarber (46% 3-point) provide solid ball handling and shooting in the Gophers sophomore backcourt, while Purdue returns all five starters that features sophomore stars Robbie Hummel (first team All-Big Ten) at forward and guard E’Twaun Moore along with improved second-year post player JuJuan Johnson. Most of these sophomores have made major improvements in their game and statistics this season and provide solid strength to the conference for the next few years.

Other notes as conference play tips off. Indiana and new coach Tom Cream will make one of the biggest downturns in the nation following 25 wins last season. The rebuilding looks to be as tough as expected, as a walk-on freshman point guard Daniel Moore has taken over the starting spot and the Hoosiers (5-7) enter league play last in the conference for the first time in 40 years. Iowa (10-3) is very young with a pair of freshman guards leading the team in scoring while Northwestern (8-2) has already equaled last seasons win total that also saw them win just one (1) conference game. Northwestern is projected near the bottom with Indiana and Northwestern, but they are clearly much improved and off to their best pre-conference start in coach Bill Carmody’s ninth season in Evanston. A win over Florida State and close road losses at Butler and Stanford provide more hope for Northwestern fans this season as Kevin Coble is healthy and leading the Wildcats in scoring and rebounding.  Senior guard Craig Moore is an exceptional outside shooter with unlimited range and sophomore playmaking point guard Michael Thompson has more size and depth to distribute the load this season. The regular rotation includes five players that have started every game including two freshman with 7-0 center Kyle Rowley now providing a plus-sized big man in the middle (280 lbs) that Northwestern has lacked in their Big Ten battles.

Just like the Big Ten, I look to improve my performance following four-straight seasons of top-tier finishes with over 55% success and 75+ units of profit in college basketball point spread prognosis. Following a rough stretch around Christmas, I’m looking forward to all the conference action ahead. We tipped-off Big West conference play last night with a 26-point road win by Cal State Northridge, a 10-point underdog we bet and released early that was bet down sharply to +4. Hopefully a good sign moving forward as we shoot for more green. Happy and healthy wishes for a prosperous and bankroll-building New Year.

I couldn’t resist. I had to write and blog again before the New Year even though I indicated otherwise. But the last week of the regular season presents many interesting dynamics with playoff spots still up for grabs and unusual lines based on some teams ‘need’ to win and others just playing out the string.

From a personal perspective, I’m in the running for some year-end ‘bonus’ cash in a major NFL contest in Las Vegas. I had some requests for an update, and I’ll need at least a 4-1 week on NFL sides to pull in a potential 5-figure payday. It’s been a good NFL season with 55+% winners over 90 plays for my personal clients and Fairway’s Followers, but I always expect more and know that game management selection is often key and can usually improve.  No doubt we suffered some tough losses and unfortunate breaks along the way, but that will happen to most winning handicappers and bettors over the course of a season and usually be the difference between a 54% to 60+% season for a solid NFL handicapper.

So, here are some notes to digest for the final week of regular season games.  In December NFL games, I like to find a game where both teams are off a SU loss and play against the home team if favored by 3 or less points. The thought being that at this stage of the season, if these home teams were worthy contenders or teams of strength, they would be favored by more than a field goal on their home field. Playing against these teams have provided big profits with a very positive profile the past 15+ seasons. That situation finally pops this week against the Philadelphia Eagles. Yet, my notes will suggest caution and ‘buyer beware’ if you bet Dallas.

Dallas at Philadelphia (-1). Just when I think I’ve got a good situation with Dallas, I’m reminded of who coaches the Cowboys. Not many coaches can ‘choke’ better than Wade Phillips, and following last years home loss in the playoffs and now this season’s under-performance, Phillips and owner Jerry Jones may indeed be putting the ‘D’ back in Dallas if they lose this game: Disaster. Consider that Dallas is 0-2 SU/ATS as underdog this season, and that the Cowboys are just 7-21 SU and 6-22 ATS on the road in December regular season games and you must think twice before riding the Cowboys. And while the public still perceives the Dallas offense as ‘potent’ while ranking no. 9 in total yards, take a look at the Cowboys last four road games and points scored; 13-14-14-14.   Just two of those games featured Tony Romo at QB, but still be reminded that head coach Wade Phillips is 11-19 SU and 9-19-2 ATS from game 14 forward, including 1-6 SU and 0-6-1 ATS going into division revenge (Dallas beat Philadelphia 41-37 in week 2). Philadelphia coach Andy Reid is one of the best with revenge: 20-10 ATS with division revenge and 12-0 ATS in that role off a loss. Special teams play is still an area of concern for the Cowboys, and the Eagles could soar and knock division rival Dallas from the playoffs while providing an exclamation point to a season-ending Dallas disaster. Philadelphia has out-gained their opponent in 12 of their 15 games this season, but are still just 8-6-1 and still on the outside looking in for a playoff spot.  More support ‘under’ the total this week.

New England at Buffalo (+6). I provided this game as my best bet in the Sportsmemo newsletter last Sunday night in support of the Buffalo Bills. A New England victory gives them 11 wins, yet they could become just the second team that fails to make the playoffs with 11 victories. Playoffs or not, head coach Bill Belichick has done another outstanding job with a Patriots team playing without QB Tom Brady, running back Lawrence Maroney and a banged up defense throughout the season. New England has some solid numbers against division teams in the recent past going 14-3 ATS on the road including 12-4 ATS against Buffalo and 20-3-1 ATS in the second meeting of the season against the Bills. However, Buffalo would love to get back to .500 and knock out the longtime division kingpin, and the Bills fit a positive profile coming off an upset win last week and now facing a opponent with a winning record. The Bills are also 6-0 ATS as a ‘Dog off an upset win, and with an inflated point spread and the pressure on the Patriots, we’ll look for the Bills to battle hard to the end and keep this one close in the wintry, rainy and windy conditions at Buffalo.

Carolina at New Orleans (+3). The Panthers had their shot for a #1 seed last week at New York, but came up short and ‘wide left’ when a game winning field goal in the closing seconds sailed wide and they lost in overtime to the NY Giants. A win by Carolina this week secures the #2 seed and first round bye. However, a loss by the Panthers combined with a Atlanta win means the Falcon’s win the division and the #2 seed. Carolina has clinched a playoff spot however, but they should be in for a big battle from the Bourbon Street boys this week. I noted in my GOY winner write-up on the Saints December 7^th that the New Orleans defense has held all the top running backs below their season average and all but LaDainian Tomlinson under 100 yards. That includes DeAngelo Williams of the Panthers, and no doubt shutting him down twice will be a tough task. Carolina won the first meeting over New Orleans 30-7, but you should know by now that NFC South home teams have been the biggest bankroll builder this season; 26-3 SU and 20-8-1 ATS including 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in division games. Now note that New Orleans is 6-1 SU/ATS at home this season and Carolina head coach John Fox is just 4-9-1 ATS as a favorite against a .450 or greater opponent, including 1-7-1 ATS going into revenge. The Saints potent offense led by Pro Bowl quarterback Drew Brees has out-gained each of their last seven opponents, and the faithful fans of New Orleans could be celebrating the New Year a little early on Bourbon Street Sunday night.

Others games, notes, situations and systems of interest.

NFL Game 16 home teams are better than 65% ATS when facing a road team that comes off consecutive home games. Five teams apply this week (do your homework). That situation becomes a better than 70% ATS play if the opponent is a non-division team.

Game 16 home favorites are over a 90% ATS play if they lost as a road favorite last week and are playing an opponent off a loss. That situation fits the Pittsburgh Steelers this week as a double-digit favorite over last place division rival Cleveland and lame duck coach Romeo Crennell.

After a very tough ½ point ATS loss on the Jaguars last week, don’t be tempted to take the big points with the Jacksonville jokesters when they travel to Baltimore. The Ravens defense should shut down QB Garrard and a Jacksonville team that gave it one final shot last week at home against a longtime division champion (Indianapolis). The Jaguars have clearly ‘tossed the towel’ and are in some solid ‘play against’ ATS situations against a Ravens team still in need of a victory to secure their playoff spot. Baltimore has out-rushed their opponents by 150-79 margin this season and the Ravens will hold nothing back and may well steamroll the underachievers from Jacksonville. A shutout wouldn’t surprise.

Some magical seasons have developed for a few teams that nobody predicted for a playoff position. Yet in the final week of the regular season, the Miami Dolphins (1-15 last season) and Atlanta Falcons (4-12 last season) can secure a playoff spot with a victory. Miami will incredibly clinch the AFC East division with a road win over the NY Jets while Atlanta can also go from division worst to first by beating the lowly Rams and having Carolina lose to New Orleans. The Dolphins will have to overcome some past late season problems, as Miami is just 3-13 ATS on the road from game 13 forward taking on a .500 or greater opponent. Miami is also in a ‘tired traveler’ role this week playing their 4^th road game in five weeks (The Dolphins have won their last three road games). Teams in that role are just 2-12 SU and 3-11 ATS since 1980 including 0-6 SU/ATS when the road team is off a win (Miami beat Kansas City last week). The Jets can still make the playoffs with a win over Miami and either a New England or Baltimore loss. The NY Jets will know their situation and division title possibilities by game time with the New England – Buffalo game in the books. A Jets win combined with a Patriots loss gives New York the AFC East division title.

In Atlanta the Falcons are a 14-point home favorite this week; the biggest favorite role ever for an Atlanta Falcons team. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers find themselves in a similar role as a franchise best 13-point favorite over Oakland. The Bucs need a win and some help to make the playoffs, as do the Chicago Bears, who must win and have Minnesota lose to the NY Giants to secure the NFC North division. The Vikings are a 7-point home favorite over the NY Giants in a game that arguably offers the biggest point spread value of the day on the defending super bowl champions despite the Giants having already secured the NFC’s #1 seed. The Purple may prevail and lock up the NFC North division, but the Vikings proved last week that their QB, coach and propensity for turnovers and special teams errors make them a tough team to trust. No team out-rushes their opponent by margin more often and delivers less point spread winners and ‘green’ than the Minnesota Vikings.   Finish off your Sunday with a playoff elimination game when Denver visits San Diego. The Chargers were 4-8 four weeks ago and are in position to secure the AFC West division title by beating the Broncos. Recall the controversial ending to the first meeting when Denver prevailed 39-38 on a successful 2-point conversion. San Diego gained 8.8 yards-per-play (yppl) in that contest to Denver’s 6.5 (yppl), and this looks like another high-scoring shootout to determine the division winner and final playoff spot.

Best wishes this weekend as you shoot for the green on the gridiron and I’ll chip-in more Fairway Forecasts and thoughts as I am able in the New Year.

I’m going to take some time off from writing and blogging until the New Year. I need some family focus for a few days and my daughters are out of school. However, after Christmas I’ll be primed for the NFL playoffs and remaining bowl games along with hoops action as we head into conference play in college basketball. It’s been a very rough week before Christmas, and I need to refocus and refresh my mind.

The title of this blog was a little golf book given to me previously by my daughters at Christmas. Here are a few excerpts and I chipped-in a bit as well. I told my daughters, "don’t you know Santa Claus likes to golf"? In the spirit of the season I hope you take the time to step back and focus on your family and faith while also enjoying some football.

‘Twas the night before Christmas with things running fine, Old Santa decided to play a quick nine. He packed up his sleigh, his clubs well within reach; then flew to the golf course near a fun public beach.

Santa smiled then teed up, set his shoulder blades square, and took a deep breath from the grass-scented air. But he swung much too hard and in spite of himself, he took up a divot the size of an elf. If that pitiful drive wasn’t lousy enough, his fairway shot found a spot deep in the rough. Santa swung nonetheless, then he cried out in pain, "my back has gone out" as it started to rain.

"I can’t even move now", Santa said with a shiver. "I have all these fun presents I have to deliver". "Please help me save Christmas, please give out these toys"; soon the foursome flew off to the good girls and boys. It was Santa who now gave out tips to his crew, as up in the air past the rooftops they flew. At each home the golfers found just the right packs, and with magic Yule dust scooted down chimney stacks.

They moved along quickly as they past the fireplace screen, "this is almost as rousing as playing eighteen". Santa said "You’ve done very well and reward you I shall. We’ll start at St. Andrew’s, Augusta, Doral. We’ll do lunch in Scottsdale, try Pebble Beach then…Riviera and Sawgrass, you just tell me when. "Eleven more holes, what a dream round we’ll play", then he took the three home and he soon flew away. They soon heard him exclaim from a sky dark as slate, "Merry Christmas to all, may your drives all fly straight".

Happy and healthy wishes this holiday season, and best wishes as you shoot for more fairways and green in the New Year. As always…stay on course.

Back on course last night following a rough Saturday in college hoops. I provided some good thoughts and analysis on our Cornell (+10) winner, as Big Red took St. Joe’s to the wire. Tonight, we shoot for more green with a top-rated Big ‘Dog play that also comes with my thoughts and full analysis. Check it out at Sportsmemo.com.

A pair of games tip-off tonight here in Las Vegas for the second night of the Las Vegas Classic at the Orleans Arena.   St. Louis takes on Fresno State after both suffered defeats yesterday to the teams in the winners bracket, DePaul and Creighton. Fresno State could have a tough time bouncing back after being blown out in the second half late last night by Creighton. They take on a St. Louis team with a pair of four-year starters at guard surrounded by a freshman supporting cast. We know St. Louis coach Rick Majerus’ team plays at a very slow pace, and that grind could prove problematic for Fresno State. St. Louis is the better defensive team and has held opponents to 40% shooting with a very impressive perimeter defense that has allowed under 22% shooting from the arch. St. Louis lost the rebound battle yesterday, but the Billikens have out-rebounded opponents by over five boards per game this season. St. Louis held DePaul to just 3-19 shooting from the 3-point line yesterday in defeat.

The featured dual in the desert takes place in Tucson, where defending national champion Kansas travels to take on Arizona in the lightly promoted Fiesta Bowl Basketball Classic. The Jayhawks (8-2) rebounded from their surprising home loss to Massachusetts to take out Temple on Saturday, 71-59. Arizona (7-3) upset Gonzaga at home nine days ago with their best defensive effort, but the Wildcats showed their inconsistency and struggled in a 79-64 loss in Las Vegas Saturday to UNLV. The Wildcats were never a factor in the second half as UNLV bombed away from the 3-point line and hit 14 of 31 shots from the arch. That’s the same UNLV team that has struggled with their shooting this season, but the Rebels were very motivated following last years home loss to Arizona and UNLV played in front of a nearly full house at the Thomas and Mack. UNLV was able to shred the Wildcat’s zone defense and Arizona only attempted four 3-point shots themselves while making just one. Point guard Nic Wise played his poorest game of the season and the Wildcats bench only provided four points in 31 minutes. Look for a more inspired effort and the ‘Cats to claw and play with more desire defensively tonight.

Kansas is down from their national championship team last year after losing six of its top seven players. However, the Jayhawks are getting some solid production from last years role players and some young future stars. Sherron Collins is back at point guard and has doubled his scoring to 18ppg along with five assists per contest. Freshman guard Tyshawn Taylor has stepped right into a starting role and chipped-in over 10ppg while hitting 48% of his shots and dishing out four assists per game. Both players will take turns guarding Arizona’s quick point guard Nic Wise. Sophomore center Cole Aldrich has really developed and averages a double double (14ppg/10rpg) for Kansas.

The Arizona Wildcats are adjusting to new roles and a new coach in Russ Pennell, who likes to play zone defense yet wants this team to run when it gets its chances in transition on offense. Forwards Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill each average nearly 19ppg while shooting over 54% from the floor with Budinger playing away from the basket and the ‘Cats top 3-point shooter. Hill hauls down 12 rebounds per contest and point guard Nic Wise completes the Big 3 for Arizona, who lack any additional real scoring option.

Kansas has played a fairly light schedule and this is their first true road game. Collins is the only Kansas player with significant experience playing on the road. Arizona proved they are capable by knocking off a top-5 team in Gonzaga at home in the McKale Center. The Wildcats have a very efficient offense with three solid shooters and scorers, but they play at a slower pace. Arizona has also played some solid defensive teams that should serve them well in a likely defensive tussle in Tucson tonight. However, Arizona will need to play more inspired on the defensive end against the Kansas guards after being torched by the UNLV outside shooters. Kansas is also an efficient shooting and scoring team with a solid presence on the defensive end as you would expect under coach Bill Self. This is a tough call, but if Arizona attacks the basket more they will have a solid shot to prevail while getting to the free throw line more often. Kansas may be the more talented team overall, but even coach Self doesn’t know what to expect from his young team in a hostile road environment for the first time. Kansas is just two possessions away from being 10-0 this season, but this is their toughest challenge to date. The Jayhawks should show solid improvement through the Big Xll schedule, and they may pull out a victory tonight. However, I’m not ready to support them in their first big road test and Arizona has played a tougher slate of teams with more defensive strength.

Gonzaga’s loss at Arizona took a little luster off this top-10 feature, but this Saturday matinee on CBS billed as ‘The Battle in Seattle’ should be a good one. Gonzaga had put a huge effort into beating Washington State on the road and no surprise to see them off their game four days later at Arizona. They have been dealing with finals, poor weather and a tuneup contest in which they were sharp in a big win over Texas Southern Thursday. Gonzaga enters #8 in the country and takes on #2 UCONN at a neutral, nearby site at Key Arena. This will be the third meeting since 1999; the year that UCONN won the National Title. Gonzaga beat UCONN 86-82 last season in Boston, and the Bulldogs have won eight West Coast Conference (WCC) titles and advanced to the NCAA Tournament in every year since 1999.

UCONN (9-0) features five double digit scorers and the Huskies like to run and score, as they average 83ppg. Despite not shooting the ball well this season, senior point guard A.J. Price chips-in nearly 9ppg as the Huskies top 3-point threat and is the clear floor leader. Coach Jim Calhoun likes his team to create breaks to the basket off their pressure defense, and UCONN has been solid thus far holding opponents to 60ppg and just 37% shooting from the field. The Huskies are an athletic and physically imposing team, and 7-3 center Hasheem Thabeet (15ppg/67%FG/12rpg) and senior Jeff Adrien (14ppg/55%FG/9rpg) can really dominate the paint. Junior wing Jerome Dyson is meeting expectations while leading the Huskies in scoring (15ppg). He can really penetrate the lane and also open up good looks and scoring options for other players. UCONN planned to arrive a few days early in Seattle, but a Wednesday flight was cancelled and they arrived Thursday evening.

Gonzaga (8-1) has been battle tested this early season with a top-25 schedule while UCONN has played mostly patsies to stay unbeaten. Gonzaga responded to their first loss at Arizona with a focused effort over winless Texas Southern, 84-42 on Thursday. The Zags just completed finals and dealt with a severe storm on Thursday but overcame the potential letdown, distractions and look ahead to UCONN. Gonzaga is scoring 77ppg and are very efficient on the offensive end. But it’s the Bulldogs top-10 defense that imposes their will by allowing just 58ppg and 35% shooting against a solid slate of opponents. Gonzaga has four double-digit scorers along with their own senior point guard Jeremy Pargo who scores 9ppg and is third in the nation with over 7 assists per game. Senior Josh Heytvelt and sophomore Austin Daye are a pair of 6-11 forwards that lead the team in scoring and rebounding, but they are not quite as physically strong or gifted as their UCONN frontline opponents today.

A national TV audience on CBS will get to see a pair of teams with experience and leadership at point guard and shooters that can really score. But the match-ups inside are worth watching today with Thabeet and Heytvelt likely the key to this contest. Both coaches have had great success in taking their programs to the top, and coach Calhoun will find out today if his experienced and talented team is ready for the Big East battles by taking on a top-team traveling cross country. Gonzaga coach Mark Few has a talented team that has played well against solid competition. They will be a team to watch throughout the season and into the NCAA Tournament, but I prefer the money move in support of Connecticut as a small underdog.

Tonight’s Thursday night NFL contest features two teams that were expected to battle for the AFC South division title. The Colts and Jaguars have gone completely different directions since their 3-4 starts. Indianapolis has won seven-straight games and a victory tonight would secure a wild card playoff spot. Jacksonville did beat Indianapolis 23-21 back in week 3 with a dominating running game (223 yards), but had to kick a 51-yard field goal in the final seconds after Peyton Manning nearly stole another victory for the Colts. Indianapolis if very fortunate to be 10-4 this season, and their recent schedule of wins over lowly Detroit, Cincinnati and Cleveland was another fortunate break. We had a winner on the Lions last week as a huge underdog, and the Colts have failed to cash in two of those three recent contests. Peyton Manning will go down as one of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the NFL, and I can’t explain their 10-wins again this season other than to say his remarkable skills have single-handedly won many games again this year. We’ve won two times against Jacksonville the past three weeks, and I’ve noted that the Jaguars lost season combined with a lack of intensity and inspired play made them a tough choice to support coming down the stretch. However, in the Jaguars last home game against a division rival on national TV, it would seem to be the spot for ‘Cats to show some claws.

Here are some notes I picked up from research and reading about tonight’s contest.

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Marvin Harrison will miss Thursday’s game with a hamstring injury suffered in Sunday’s victory over Detroit. He did not make the trip to Jacksonville. The injury initially was listed as a knee, but Colts coach Toney Dungy said that it was a hamstring. Harrison underwent an MRI test but the results haven’t been released. Harrison, a 13th-year pro and holder of every major receiving record in franchise history, has played in every game this season after missing a career-high 11 last year with a knee injury. Safety Bob Sanders (knee) and running back Joseph Addai (shoulder) will be game-time decisions, but Dungy was optimistic both would play. "They’ve gone through what practicing we’ve done, they both want to play, they’re excited about going," Dungy said. "My sense is they’ll go, but we’ll see what happens in the next 36 hours. The Thursday night games, you don't have as much traction and energy as you would on Sunday with the extra three days," said Dungy, whose Colts beat Detroit 31-21 on Sunday.

The Colts have played two games in five days three times over the past eight seasons and averaged 35.7 points in the latter games while winning all three on the road. They took Thanksgiving games at Atlanta (31-13) in 2007 and Detroit (41-9) in 2004, and beat Kansas City (35-28) in a 2001 game rescheduled because of the Sept. 11 attacks.

Before Indianapolis' winning streak, Manning had thrown 10 touchdowns and nine interceptions and was sacked nine times. Since then, Manning has thrown 13 TD’s and three interceptions. The offensive line has given up four sacks. Manning missed all of training camp and the preseason - which is critical to a quarterback's timing with the receivers - after undergoing surgery in early July to remove an infected bursa sack from his left knee. Once the regular season kicked off, Manning was in the starting lineup. The problem was, it wasn't the same Manning. His timing with the receivers was off, and because the left knee wouldn't let Manning plant and throw with confidence, many of his passes fell short of their intended targets. And, similar to the situation in Jacksonville, injuries along Indianapolis' offensive line compounded matters. By the end of November, the Colts had already used eight linemen in addition to four combinations of starters up front. Four linemen -Dan Federkeil and rookies Jamey Richard, Steven Justice and Mike Pollak - were starting in NFL games for the first time.

With starting defensive tackles Keyunta Dawson (hamstring) and Eric Foster (neck) out with injuries Sunday, the Colts mixed it up. Antonio Johnson got his second start at the position and end Josh Thomas got his first. Raheem Brock, Daniel Muir and Darrell Reid also got reps at defensive tackle, as did ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Rookies Curtis Johnson and Marcus Howard got snaps at end, sometimes simultaneously. The Lions went into the game having allowed 49 sacks, the most in the NFL, but the Colts got no sacks and little pressure on quarterback Dan Orlovsky, who threw mostly short passes off quick drops. "They came out with a game plan of trying to shut down our D-line to keep us from getting to the quarterback," Brock said after the game. "They blocked us with seven guys. It was tough on us and we had some miscommunication." Dungy said he expects Dawson and Foster to play Thursday.

Dallas Clark caught 12 passes for 142 yards Sunday to break his own Colts record for catches in a season by a tight end with 63. Clark also set the record for receiving touchdowns by a tight end last year with 11. He needs 146 yards over the final two games to surpass the 829 yards accumulated by John Mackey in 1966. With 85 points, Colts PK Adam Vinatieri's streak of 100-point seasons is in jeopardy. He has 12 in succession, second only Atlanta's Jason Elam, who has 16.

With seven on injured reserve since Dec. 5, the Jaguars now have 16 on the list. Jacksonville made several roster moves Tuesday, placing linebacker Daryl Smith, receiver Jerry Porter and defensive tackle Tony McDaniel on injured reserve. The starting middle linebacker, Smith injured his groin in Sunday's win over Green Bay and, according to Del Rio, will be replaced by Mike Peterson, who was the starter for eight games before being demoted. Porter suffered his groin injury in the Jaguars' loss to Chicago on Dec. 7. Del Rio initially hoped Porter would be able to return this season. In the absence of Porter and Matt Jones, who is serving a suspension, veteran Dennis Northcutt has taken a more significant role. With just four receivers active against Green Bay, Northcutt finished with five catches for 127 yards and a touchdown. Northcutt's receiving totals - which included three catches for 30 or more yards - were the most by a Jaguar this season.

A win tonight by Indianapolis and the Colts would clinch the AFC's No. 5 seed and a first-round visit (Jan. 3 or 4) to the No. 4 seed which is the division winner with the worst record. Currently that's Denver. If Jacksonville completes the seasonal sweep, Indy still could earn one of the two wild cards if three of four other teams in the AFC hunt - Baltimore, New York Jets, Miami or New England - lose this weekend. Failing that, the Colts' pursuit of a playoff spot would come down to the Dec. 28 regular-season finale in Lucas Oil Stadium against AFC South champion Tennessee.

Enjoy another NFL Thursday night edition and all the playoff implication games this weekend. I see only four games that are meaningless from a playoff position standpoint. I’ll be watching with interest as we look to improve on our 13-4 late season NFL run and over 56% success to complete our 6^th consecutive winning season in regular season action.  

I’m in action tonight in both the NBA and CBB with a top-rated 20* Big Drive play going in the NBA as we ‘shoot’ for more ‘green’ and look to improve on our 19-10 point spread prognosis this NBA season. Both of ‘Fairways Forecasts’ in NBA action tonight come with a written analysis, and I thought I would ‘chip-in’ with some thoughts and a preview of tonight’s college basketball game between St. Mary’s and Oregon. The Pac-10 is definitely down from a season ago, and it’s no surprise that losing seven players to the first round of the NBA draft weakened the conference. This year’s freshman class is not nearly as strong in the Pac-10, but tonight you can see a star-in-waiting in Oregon’s big low post player Michael Dunigan and emerging point guard Garrett Sim. These two freshman starters are among five freshman that play double-digit minutes for the Ducks. A tough task tonight against an experienced and solid St. Mary’s team, and we already saw one top West Coast Conference team (Gonzaga) travel to Pac-10 country and dominate a Washington State team that is down and also rebuilding a bit from a season ago.

The Pac-10 is just 1-9 against ranked teams this season following Arizona’s upset of Gonzaga last weekend. The Pac-10 was perhaps the top conference in the country last season and four freshman led their teams in scoring, but three of those players are gone with UCLA’s Kevin Love, Arizona’s Jerryd Bayless and USC’s O.J. Mayo now playing in the NBA. Only James Harden returns at Arizona State, and the Sun Devils should contend for a Pac-10 title after finishing last in conference play just two season’s ago (2-16). So the rebuilding can be done and freshman can make a difference even in the power conferences against other top-level players. But Oregon will have to play hard every night and overcome consistency issues and the learning curve on the defensive end of the court if they want to beat the better teams like they’ll face tonight in St. Mary’s.

Patrick Mills scored 37 points in St. Mary’s 99-87 win over Oregon last season, and the Ducks are not as explosive offensively after losing some top players to graduation and five freshman now seeing playing time. However, Oregon (4-5) is getting good play and production from their guards, as diminutive Tajuan Porter leads Oregon in scoring and emerging freshman Garrett Sim has taken over at the point and played pretty poised while also hitting 44% from the arch. Touted freshman Michael Dunigan is a big body in the block that is scoring 12ppg and combines with Joevan Catron to provide some rebounding strength.  Oregon has played a solid early season schedule with a tournament win over Alabama followed by double-digit losses the next two nights to North Carolina and Texas and a road loss at Utah.  The young Ducks now finds themselves a home underdog against a West Coast Conference (WCC) club. Consistency is always a concern with a young team, and with two freshman starting at point guard and center and five freshman getting double-digit minutes, Oregon will have some ups and downs in their performances and level of play.

St. Mary’s (7-1) is quietly continuing their strong play from last season. The Gaels are getting nearly 20ppg from super soph point guard Patty Mills, and backcourt partner Carlin Hughes has improved his play and production in his senior season. Saint Mary’s features a strong duo inside with center Omar Sanham (15ppg/9rpg) providing powerful play in the low post and was the WCC top offensive rebounder last season. He’s hitting 60% of his shots from the field, and joins two-time first team all-conference player Diamon Simpson, who averages a double-double for St. Mary’s.

Oregon likes to push the pace, but that will play right into St. Mary’s hands. Oregon has not been too efficient on the offensive end, and their youth is still learning to play on the defensive end as well. St. Mary’s Patty Mills prefers a quick pace as one of CBB fastest players, and the Gaels rate the better offensive and defensive team here. Tough travel and location to win on the road in Eugene at McArthur Court, but St. Mary’s has the personnel and experience to prevail.  

Still time to sign-up for my Eastern Conference GOY in the NBA action tonight. We’ve had a nice response, and the selection includes a full analysis with some powerful situations and systems that provided Game-of-the-Year winners each of the past two seasons in similar spots while covering the point spread by over 13 points in each contest. I had this game circled earlier this week, and the situation, systems, schedule and match-ups make this a top play.

Through my years of NBA handicapping, I have accumulated information from past sources and store for reference in my database. More than any other sport, I use situations, scheduling and systems as a larger part of my handicapping arsenal in the NBA. With a long grueling season that features much travel, injuries and emotional peaks and valley’s, I have no problem relying on some system based selections that have proven very profitable over the course of many years. There are always adjustments in the line and that’s more prominent than ever with the ease of the Internet and offshore betting. But if I didn’t take a big 'swing' and provide these plays and situations to my clients, then we would truly be missing out on 'birdie' opportunities and I would not be providing my best ‘game’ to Fairway’s Faithful Followers. I can’t always disclose exact ATS numbers or specific details, as today’s competitive marketplace in the handicapping and betting industry makes it imperative that I keep some information in my ‘bag’ so ‘Big Bertha’ doesn’t emerge under a new ‘brand’. I’m not an originator of this proprietary information, but rest assured that I’ve done my homework and kept ‘score’ so you the customer can benefit and make more ‘green’.

Today’s play is a rare situation that pops no more than a few times per season. The situation is supported by strong sub-systems that combine scheduling and performance that compliment our teams match-ups and motivation. When this all comes together it becomes one of our strongest plays of the entire season. Join me today and watch the action and result unfold as we ‘shoot’ for another big winner and continue our better than 60% success rate in both the NBA and CBB this season.

Sportsmemo is a leader in the sports information and handicapping industry, and Fairway Jay is key player and top performer in the handicapping arena.  Fairway Jay has continued to provide industry-leading results on the hardwood, and his rare combination of research, winning results and writing through his regular blogs provides his clients and other 'Fairway Followers' with valuable information that helps many bettors to more profits and 'green'.  If you're looking for a key player on a top team, then join Fairway Jay at Sporstmemo.com or call the office at 1-800-575-3069 for a hassle-free approach to winning information.   

I’m not in action on this contest, but was asked for an opinion and preview and so Fairway’s Forecast chipped-in with some thoughts. Kentucky forward Ramon Harris is doubtful, and he’s the Wildcat’s #3 scorer and top FG shooter (65%). Still, too much strength on Kentucky for the young Hoosiers to overcome on the road, and you can check out the action on ABC television today and this article link in today’s Lexington Herald-Leader.

Traditional rivals will battle on ABC television Saturday when Indiana (5-4) travels to Lexington to take on Kentucky (6-3) at Rupp Arena. The heavily favored Wildcats will look for redemption following last years 70-51 loss to Indiana in Bloomington. "I still think there's a score to settle," star forward Patrick Patterson said. This year’s Hoosiers are clearly a bottom Big Ten team, and all six players that scored against Kentucky in last years game are gone. First-year Indiana coach Tom Cream is in rebuilding mode, and the young Hoosiers team will likely struggle against Kentucky’s aggressive man-to-man defense and the Wildcats should claw this Indiana team apart and win by similar margin themselves on Saturday.

Indiana has rotated up to six freshman through the starting lineup, and this year’s team features nine scholarship players and six walk-ons. Also, six of Indiana’s top seven scorers are freshman. Indian’s biggest weakness is on the interior despite some pretty productive play from freshman forward Tom Prichard, who leads Indiana in scoring and rebounding (14/7+). Devon Dumes leads the Hoosiers guards in scoring (13ppg), but like many of the young Indiana players, he has plenty to learn on the defensive end of the floor. Freshman walk-on point guard Daniel Moore has started seven games and rotates with touted freshman Verdell Jones lll, who has missed the last three games following a concussion and is questionable against Kentucky. Nick Williams is a versatile freshman wing that is scoring 9ppg while providing some rebounding help and sharp shooting freshman Matt Roth adds a little spark off the bench as the teams top 3-point shooter. Indiana coach Tom Cream knows his young team has a long ways to go, but has been pleased with their willingness to work and learn. The talent is lacking along with experience however, and there will be plenty of leaning in Lexington against Kentucky. The Hoosiers have one win away from home on a neutral floor in Maui against Chaminade, and they will get a rude awakening to the reality of big time basketball at Rupp Arena.

I saw Kentucky play live in Las Vegas and selected them in their win over West Virginia as an 8-point underdog.