For the past two season’s, the Sportsmemo team of handicappers have provided bold predictions for the upcoming football season. The insight, analysis and plays are provided to Sportsmemo newsletter subscribers and available in early August. A season ago, I was on the ‘money’ with the Fairway Forecast on Kansas (12-1), who had a most remarkable season while rewarding their betting backers week-after-week (12-1 ATS). While I was on the mark with my thoughts on Kansas, I didn’t take advantage often enough in supporting the juggernaut Jayhawks.  Here was my brief preseason bold prediction for Kansas a season ago.

For the 2008 season I'm going to 'fade' the ball, and I've ‘chipped-in’ my thoughts for two teams below. Following week 1 performances, I like what I see for these predictions to play out. Arkansas literally escaped last week, avoiding a near disaster for new head coach Bobby Petrino and his team. The Razorbacks converted a 4^th and 10 play late in the contest in route to a game-winning touchdown to pull out a 28-24 win over FCS participant Western Illinois. Arkansas looked out of sorts from the beginning, and managed just 76 yards rushing against a second-tier division team – a far cry from the Razorback’s recent past as the ‘Hogs averaged over 230 yards rushing-per-game the past six seasons. Changing to a pass-oriented offense takes longer to implement with timing issues, but must be concerned and cautious moving forward if you support Arkansas.

Meanwhile, highly touted West Virginia (AP no. 8) also showed off their passing attack in their misleading win over Villanova, another FCS team. New coach Bill Stewart is going to allow quarterback Pat Smith more freedom in the passing game. That’s good for us bettors when the Mountaineers step up against a quality team and defense. Remember West Virginia’s choke job late last season against Pittsburgh as a 28-point favorite? I do, we had Pitt and the ‘under’ in their 13-9 ‘Backyard Brawl’ upset win. West Virginia was out-gained by Villanova 399-354 and allowed the Wildcats 28 first downs in their season opener last week. The Moutaineers offense will not be as potent as recent editions, but more importantly, they will drop off considerably on the defensive side of the ball. I’m playing against both Arkansas and West Virginia this week.

Here are my early preseason predictions provided previously.

Arkansas will go winless in SEC play. The ‘Hogs hope and hype was huge with the hiring of head coach Bobby Patrino and the tremendous fan following and turnout for the Spring game in April. But the Razorbacks and Petrino’s new spread offense is about to get ‘hog-tied’ by their SEC opponents. Not only does Arkansas lose a pair of All-SEC running backs (both NFL first round picks), but the Razorbacks must also replace two All-SEC offensive linemen. The defense is limited in experience and returning starters, and a starting OLB faces a felony charge from early July. The scheme changes and personnel situation will send the Razorbacks through a ‘rough’ season with 0-1 SEC wins a real possibility. No surprise if Arkansas finishes with their worst overall record since 1952 (2-8).

West Virginia will be a betting money burner. Despite going 11-2 each of the past two seasons, West Virginia has managed just 7-6 and 5-6-1 ATS records. The explosive Mountaineers offense averaged over 38 ppg each of the past two seasons. However, last year the defense was a dominant unit and this season West Virginia returns just four defensive starters and appear far less capable. With projections calling for another explosive offense and high finish, West Virginia should be inflated in the betting marketplace setting up some solid opportunities to ‘fade’ the Mountaineers.  

South Carolina at Vanderbilt

No official Fairway Forecast play tonight, but I’ll ‘chip-in- with my thoughts and analysis for those that want to follow and make a bet. ESPN will televise this ‘blackout’ game tonight, as the Vanderbilt faithful will be wearing black to support the Commodores. Unfortunately, after their upset road win last week, the Commodores will be feeling ‘blue’ after facing the South Carolina defense. We cashed an opening night winner with the Gamecocks in their 34-0 shutout win over NC State, and SEC Player-of-the-Week and dual threat quarterback Chris Nickson will find the running lanes much tougher to crack as they close much quicker this week. Also, the wide receiving core of Vanderbilt is banged up and undermanned, and senior running back Jeff Jennings injured his shoulder early in last week’s contest and is unlikely to play. Junior running back Jared Hawkins will get his opportunity tonight. While Vandy rushed for 269 yards last week against Miami, Ohio (QB Nickson 166), the rebuilt offensive line will struggle more tonight facing the superior ‘Cocks defense.

South Carolina quarterback Chris Smelley takes over for mistake prone Tommy Beecher following his struggles and mistakes in the opener. And while the ‘Cocks offense was slow to get untracked last week, the combination of opening night national TV, a new quarterback and the solid NC State defense should have them better prepared against a less skilled and talented Vanderbilt front seven. Look for a more aggressive Vandy defense with pressure packages built to force quicker releases from QB Smelley. However, Smelley should have some passing success with the ‘Cocks skilled wide receivers led by senior Kenny McKinnley, and no doubt head coach Steve Spurrier will take his ‘shots’ against a suspect Commodores secondary. Special teams advantage clearly with the ‘Cocks, and no doubt the motivation will be strong for South Carolina following last years embarrassing performance and home loss to Vanderbilt (17-6) at a 2-tochdown favorite. We’re just mad at ourselves from last year," Spurrier said. "I’ve said it many times — that was one of the worst offensive games I’ve ever attempted to coach. It was a sorry performance." Vanderbilt forced four turnovers while getting seven QB sacks in last year’s upset. That loss was the first-ever defeat for head coach Spurrier against Vanderbilt (14-1), and sent the no. 6 team in the country into a late season tailspin, as South Carolina never recovered in losing their last five contests and missing out on a bowl game.

Legitimate payback opportunity for South Carolina with the defense and match-up edges to win by 2+ touchdowns.

Every Sunday night the Sportsmemo handicappers and staff provide complimentary selections and best bets with analysis that appear in the Sportsmemo Newsletter by Tuesday morning. We select a game for the upcoming weekend and provide our thoughts and reasoning for the selection. During the football season, we also provide a best bet with analysis that is our early week Sportsmemo $5,000 contest play. While many sports fans, bettors and fantasy players are watching ESPN and other highlight shows Sunday night, we’re scouring the boxscores, game recaps and reviewing our own game notes to determine where our edges lie for the upcoming weeks games. As the betting lines are released Sunday night for the following weeks college and pro football games, some of us ‘fire’ out early bets and make note of the line moves.

As the week progresses, we narrow down our games of interest and ‘shoot’ for the best opportunities and value as the market moves the side and totals numbers. The evaluation of past week’s results continues, and weeks 2 and 3 of the college football season can be tricky, as you’ll not only see many teams make improvements in their practices and on-field performance, but others will find the going a bit ‘rough’ after some week 1 success as they play better teams with bigger, faster and stronger athletes. So while it’s important to believe what you ‘see’ and recognize the statistical breakdown of the boxscores while reviewing play-by-play and key game-changing plays, it’s vital to still understand ‘value’ in the betting line and not get too consumed with ones teams superior performance or another teams struggles. There in lies the beauty of handicapping and the constant work in progress of combining the ‘art’ with the ‘science’ in your study and research to become a more proficient handicapper and bettor.

This past Sunday, I wrote-up a three games in advance, and ‘fired’ out a bet on Penn State minus (-15) over Oregon State for the Saturday, September 6 contest. This game is still in consideration for my card and clients, but as the line continues to get bet ‘up’, we must factor in value lost along with our initial thoughts in the match-up and projections as kickoff nears. If you reviewed my recent blog and adhere to the belief that many contests are won or lost at the line of scrimmage, then perhaps you’ll support my analysis below of Penn State. However, the linemaker took a little beating in week 1 from the heavy favorites, as 2+ touchdown favorites went 12-5-1 Against-the-Spread (ATS) in week 1 (I graded Indiana a push). With 41 college football games in week 1, favorites went 24-16-1. In week 2, we see 44 lined games in CFB, and a whopping 27 teams are favored by 2+ touchdowns. So before you take your ‘shot’ with these teams that ‘rolled’ in week 1, be sure you have support on the field and in the trenches.

I believe Penn State has a solid advantage along both lines again this week, and expect another dominating performance and advantage running the football. The Nittany Lions are clearly playing a stronger team than they faced in Coastal Carolina week 1. However, Oregon State is not only traveling across country and 0-7 in regular season road games versus non-conference BCS teams, but the Beavers are facing a much stronger front seven on defense this week as well as a stronger running attack of the Nittany Lions. Penn State has had to make some adjustments along their defensive line, but they clearly have some solid depth. Have to believe Oregon State will try to run the ball more to sustain a more balanced attack. However the Beavers should find it difficult to move the ball on the ground again this week.

You might be surprised to know that Oregon State has been the second-winningest program (19-8) in the Pac-10 the past two years (USC 22-4). Some have labeled the Beavers as Pac-10 contenders this season, and while they may bounce back with a better effort and fewer mistakes this week, you still cannot ignore that the Beavers allowed 210 rushing yards to Stanford in week 1 and give away an average of 30 pounds per man from their defensive line against Penn States offensive line. If you determine the Nittany Lions will roll again this week, then you should ‘fire’ away now as the line has climbed to –16.5 and will likely close higher.

Here is what I wrote up on Sunday in advance of this weekend’s Oregon State – Penn State contest.

This past summer I met the editor of Rounder Magazine at the World Series of Poker in Las Vegas, and he asked me if I would write a monthly sports-related column for his magazine. Pick up a copy when you have a chance, as the poker content and my sports handicapping articles offer a pretty good read. Oh, and the cover shots and pictorials of the lovely ladies are pretty good too…Rounder is in fact a lifestyle magazine! I chipped-in some NFL preseason betting thoughts for the August issue, and some of the content below appears in the upcoming September issue. After nailing a side and total winner in the Sunday night Colorado – Colorado State contest, we’re off to a solid and steady start with a 4-1 mark in college football including 3-0 on our featured Big Drive plays.

College football kicked off Labor Day weekend, and for the hundreds of ‘Fairway Followers’ and personal clients, it was a birdie on opening night as we delivered the green with South Carolina’s big 34-0 shutout over North Carolina State. I provided a full analysis of that contest and you can review the write-up in my College Football Kickoff blog dated August 28th at sportsmemo.com. Essentially, I noted that the key to So. Carolina’s margin victory would be their veteran and versatile defense that featured returning starters at every position and would be facing a stagnant, one-dimensional NC State offense with a redshirt freshman quarterback making his first start.

For good measure, we chipped-in another dominating win with Missouri’s beating of Illinois 52-42 in a contest not as close as the final score indicates. Missouri’s potent spread offense led by senior quarterback Chase Daniel and explosive wide receiver/kick returner Jeremy Maclin rolled up over 560 yards total offense including over 200 yards rushing late into the third quarter in building a 45-20 lead. They controlled the line of scrimmage on offense and the Illinois defense could not stop Missouri, as the Tigers only stopped themselves when they failed to score. Missouri actually held Illinois to negative nine (-9) yards rushing in the first half and the Tigers held a significant ground game edge for the contest (Missouri 254 – 6.9 yards-per-rush / Illinois 78 – 2.2 yards-per-rush). Missouri’s defense got soft in the secondary and allowed Illinois to come back late, however Missouri’s domination at the line of scrimmage on offense prevailed. If you read my thoughts below on controlling the line of scrimmage and review the box scores from week 1 college football, you’ll see the successful correlation of a strong running game to covering the point spread.

Handicapping early season college football is in no small part about looking for the all important experience edge. And while returning starters is an important part of that early season component, too many handicappers and bettors still fail to compare the experience edge with the point spread to determine if there is enough ‘value’ in the price. Determining that value is based on a number of factors including experience edge, player personnel and match-ups, injuries, coaching, schemes, scheduling, and motivation. But with fast-changing early season market moves by the linemaker, the ‘sharp’ bettor understands the importance of getting a good number. If you want to be a successful and profitable sports bettor, then understanding 'value’ is of utmost importance in handicapping the games.

While it’s nice to win an early ‘pot’ like we did with South Carolina, the football season should be addressed in similar ways to a poker tournament. Use selective aggression when betting on games. Do your homework and know your ‘opponent’. Keep your emotions in check and manage your bankroll just like you would manage your ‘chip’ stack. Don’t go ‘all-in’ in the opening few weeks, as losing too many ‘big bets’ will prove costly and force you to the ‘rail’ sooner than you planned. If you fail to manage your bankroll and lose too many of your ‘chips’ early in the football season, you’ll be forced to be more conservative and play a ‘short stack’. This will leave you with less ‘chips’ to make consistently stronger wagers as you gather more information and gain more confidence as the season progresses.

Now, if you begin the season prepared and have the past experience to understand early season football and some of the dynamics and strengths that put the edges and percentages in your favor, then the astute handicapper and bettor can take advantage of some of the early season lines and totals posted by the linemaker. Those novice handicappers and bettors that rely on the ‘talking heads’ on ESPN, FOX or other major networks, along with ‘hyped’ information from unreliable sources will find themselves ‘busted’ and wondering what happened. Using some of the meaningless past ‘trends’, relying on your ‘hunches’ or falling for the great performances on national TV and betting on those teams the next few weeks without keeping line value, experience and match-ups in mind will also prove costly.

While looking at important early season factors like returning starters, quarterback experience, defensive strength, and proven coaches and schemes, know that the offensive line play and experience at those positions is critical for success. Six teams in major college football return all five offensive line starters this season: Ball State, Iowa, Penn State, Temple, West Virginia and Wyoming. Perhaps it’s no coincidence that these teams had success on opening weekend. I would also add Tennessee to that group, as they have four full returning starters along the offensive line plus an additional player that started the final six games for the Volunteers last season. Unfortunately, Tennessee came up short and lost to UCLA 27-24 in overtime in one of the more entertaining games of the weekend on Monday night. However, that contest will make my list of misleading finals and scores, as Tennessee had the dominating rushing advantage (178-28) and intercepted four UCLA quarterback passes in the first half, but managed to lose the contest. Have to question head coach Phillip Fulmer and his defensive staff for their decisions to play off the UCLA receivers in the second half after such QB and passing game struggles by the Bruins in the first half.

Anyway, when you research and review college football games, instead of watching the ESPN highlight shows and reading the Associated Press (AP) top 25 or listening to the ‘talking heads’ tell you how great some of the skill players are, dig into the box scores and determine which teams show strength at the point of attack. It should be no surprise that on the opening Thursday and Friday of this college football season, seven of the eight teams that controlled the line of scrimmage and dominated in the running game not only won the games but also covered the point spread.

Supporting teams that can run the football successfully and also stop the run will go a long way in building your bankroll. Keep that in mind as the season progresses, and if you don’t have the time, energy or experience to produce profits and pick winners, then contact me and we’ll beat the game and get the green together.  

College football season kicks off tonight, and we’ve seen some early line movement on a number of contests with the totals market showing some sharp downward movement on many games. One contest that has seen an upward movement in the betting line is tonight’s North Carolina State at South Carolina contest. Regular Fairway Followers and subscribers were able to bet the best number on the Gamecocks Tuesday and Wednesday, as I released my first college football selection to subscribers when the line was –13 and even –12 here in Las Vegas. I provided my game write-up and analysis below to subscribers, and you can get a feel for some of the write-ups I provide with some selections during the course of the football season. I provided over 75 game write-ups with my college football selections last season, and I’ll try once again to ‘chip-in’ my thoughts and insight on some selections as time permits.

The bottom line is to win and build a bulging bankroll. With market moves and a more volatile totals market anticipated early, it’s important to bet the games and get the best number. Studying the match-ups, stats and understanding motivation are important each week, and handicapping August/September college football certainly involves looking for and analyzing the all important experience edge. Weather, injuries, schedule and coach’s announcements on players and plans are some additional factors that affect the betting lines as the week progresses. While I enjoy writing and providing analysis, the prep work and research to provide winning selections will still take precedence over one man’s insight or opinion through a write-up or game analysis.

Best wishes for a productive and profitable football season, and enjoy my write-up and thoughts on my opening night selection.

Line on the move upward, as the Gamecocks show a significant experience edge in this non-conference season opener. NC State was the ACC’s worst statistical defense last season, and return just four players to their stop unit. That should help untested dual threat QB Tommy Beecher, who has patiently waited for his time while learning the offense the past 2+ years. He should work with some solid field position thanks to the Gamecocks superior defense and better special teams units. Aware that SC running back Mike Davis will not start, but he’ll see action and head coach Steve Spurrier won’t hesitate to test the unproven Wolfpack secondary with a freshman cornerback along with a pair of first-year freshman linebackers. Top WR/TE combo Kenny McKinley and Jared Cook should make some big plays in the passing game. The key to this margin victory however will be the South Carolina defense, which went south last year after losing several starters to injury. The Gamecocks hardened defense returns starters at every position led by the talent and leadership of MLB Jasper Brinkley, who missed most of last season after suffering a season-ending knee injury last September. The veteran and versatile defense should dominate the one-dimensional NC State offense and pressure small, redshirt freshman QB Russell Wilson throughout. With starting running back Jamelle Eugene out for this contest, the athletic Wilson will be running from defenders more than passing with precision and he’ll be hard pressed to move the chains against this top South Carolina defense playing in front of their hostile home fans. Wolfpack senior QB Daniel Evans will see action, but it should be a rough night for both NC State quarterbacks. South Carolina started 6-1 last year and was ranked top-10 in the nation before injuries took it’s toll and the ‘Cocks limped home with 5-straight losses. SC will be motivated and confident to pile on a weakened NC State team that lost six of their seven games last year by 17 or more points. ‘Cocks rise to the occasion opening night and come up big on national TV.

There are some terrific division races with under 35 games to go in the MLB regular season, and the Tampa Bay Rays continue to amaze. The turnaround, team records and feel good story continue to lead the AL East; a division that features the World Series front runner at the start of the season in Boston. Here is some interesting notes on the Rays remarkable run.

AT 79-49, the Rays own the best record in the majors. Since 1900, no team has had the best record in the majors on this date or later after having the majors worst mark the previous season (66-96 LY). Since 1900, only one team in the four major sports has finished the season with the best record in its league the year after having the worst (name the team, post in the Sportsmemo forum and I'll give a free day of FairwayJay plays *). And in this decade, only twice has an AL East team had a better record after 129 games...2004 NYY 79-48 and 2002 NYY 80-47.

Remember that 7-game losing streak before the All-Star break? Tampa Bay is a MLB best 24-10 since the All-Star break with a 3.42 ERA...best in the American League. With Saturday's win over Chicago, the Rays won another series to lead the majors (28), and have not lost a series since the All-Star break (10-0-1). The tireless ‘team’ approach has been impressive the past two weeks again, as Tampa Bay has posted a 9-3 record despite missing three of their top players – left fielder Carl Crawford, third baseman Evan Longoria and closer Troy Percival.

The Rays have made a major turnaround on defense, now T5 in the majors with a .986 fielding percentage after finishing 27th last year. And what a 'relief', as the Rays bullpen has held the opposition to a MLB best .218 batting average. Last year, opponents batted .303 against the Tampa Bay bullpen...the 3rd highest average by a pen in the last 50 years. And remember, last season the Rays pen had an ERA of 6.16...the highest in MLB over the past 50 years. This year the Rays have only 8 blown saves which is tied with the NYY for the Majors best mark. The five Rays starters are all 24-26 years old, which of course offers plenty of promise in the upcoming seasons. The entire staff has held opponents to a .244 batting average; second in the majors to the Cubs and yet another 'major' turnaround from the leagues worst batting average against of .290 last year.

I don’t believe the Rays will get out of the ‘Windy City’ with a series sweep over the White Sox Sunday, however no surprise if pitcher Andy Sonnanstine (3-0, 2.92 ERA in August) and the bullpen keep them competitive yet again in a ‘no respect’ role (+150). Of course, the Rays are the majors top money-making team with over 26-units of profit along with another surprise contender, the Minnesota Twins (+24).

Will the Rays 'fade' in September? They will definitely earn the division title if they hold on to their current 5.5-game lead, as the Rays return home for nine games to face division foes Toronto, New York and Baltimore, and then travel to Boston, New York and return home for another big 3-game series against the Red Sox in mid-September. I really won’t be too surprised if Boston rallies past the Rays and wins the AL East. But as a fan of the game, it’s hard not to pull for Tampa Bay as the Rays have been brilliant and offer hope for the smaller market and payroll teams (Rays $44 million payroll, second lowest in MLB; NY Yankees highest at 209 million, Boston 133 million). The Rays may have a ‘poor’ payroll, but they have provided plenty of profits, which makes for a happy 'Dog owner/bettor. 

* first poster

College football kickoff is just one week away, and as we get up to speed on the teams, projections and prognostication, it certainly is helpful to know and understand the rules changes. Two seasons ago, the NCAA created a negative buzz’ with some of the clock changes, which had a direct impact on the number of offensive plays run during the course of a contest, along with a decrease in scoring. Those bettors that were ready to fire early were able to take advantage of some strong ‘under’ the total plays before the linemaker made necessary adjustments. As college coaches complained along with other strong voices, the NCAA adjusted the clock rules last season. Their goal of reducing the length of games was not met last season, however, they sure made plenty of ‘green’ with all those advertisements…!

In making it’s recommendations for rules changes in 2008, the NCAA Football Rules Committee retained its focus on player safety and consistency of making the ball ready for play. The highlighted link describes the changes set forth for player safety, timing of the game, instant replay and game administration. Helmet crown tackling, chop block and the horse-collar’ tackle will all be considered personal fouls and penalized 15 yards. Also note that there is no longer a foul if any player grabs an opponent’s face mask without pulling, twisting or turning it. The five-yard penalty has been eliminated, however pulling, twisting or turning an opponent’s face mask remains a personal foul with a 15-yard penalty.

This article also outlines some of the rules and clock changes along with points of emphasis. I’ve highlighted a few of the clock changes below, with a full briefing and potential impact on the games listed in the article.

New clock rule No. 1: This season the NCAA will adopt a 40/25 second play clock like the one used in the NFL. The 40-second clock will begin as soon as a play is blown dead and should enhance the consistency of how soon the ball is ready for play once it has become dead. In the past, the play clock was set at 25 seconds and started on the referee’s signal on every play. In circumstances like a penalty, score, change of possession, media or injury timeout, the play clock will be set at 25 seconds and started on the referee’s signal.

New clock rule No. 2: In years past when the ball was run out of bounds, the game clock would stop and would not start again until the ball was snapped on the next play. This season when the ball goes out of bounds the game clock will still stop. But once the ball is ready for play, the official will immediately re-start the game clock. The old rules will go back into effect for the last two minutes of the half and the last two minutes of the game. That gives teams a chance to run the two-minute drill and potentially make a comeback.

As you watch and observe the college football games and review game recaps and box scores, make note of teams that implement the no-huddle offense and try to maximize opportunities with the clock changes. No doubt there may be some adjustment in over/under totals lines as some of these teams show off their no-huddle and quick strike abilities. However, if you’re on top of your game early and ready to ‘fire’ on the first ‘tee’, you’ll no doubt be able to ‘bag’ some extra ‘green’ and ‘score’ with your totals plays.

Best wishes as you ‘shoot’ for the ‘green’ and stay on ‘course’ this football season. 

I won’t be writing much more on baseball this season, as football becomes the focus in the months ahead. However, I was handicapping the MLB card and noted the hotter weather in Seattle. Two years ago at the end of July, I wrote a blog about some information that was provided to me regarding the ball traveling much more with the warmer temps at pitcher friendly Safeco Field. During a six-game stretch in 2006 with the hottest temperatures of the season in Seattle, Mariners game totals reached 13, 17, 10, 15 and 11 runs. The only game that stayed ‘under’ the total was when staff Ace Felix Hernandez pitched. Over the past three days in Seattle, the Mariners scores were 10-5, 3-1 and 8-4 against Baltimore, and again the only low scoring game was with King Felix on the hill firing his fastball and getting ground ball outs.

I’m ready to fire with a few over the total plays in the Twins – Mariners series as the temps hit the upper 80’s, and will follow the weather and match-ups in the Rays – Mariners weekend series as the projection is to be back into the low 70’s by the weekend. The Twins took over first-place in the AL Central with yesterday’s home win and promising return of left-handed starter Francisco Liriano. Tonight, Minnesota will send Glen Perkins to the hill at Safeco Field, and the lefty has been fairly efficient for the Twins in his first year as starter. However, in his two recent outings covering 12 innings, he’s allowed nine runs on 15 hits and this is his first time facing Seattle. He’s lasted at least five innings in 10-straight starts, and while Seattle has struggled at the plate this season, note that the Mariners are hitting .283 since the All-Star break and have recorded double-digit hits in eight of their last nine games. The Mariners also hit left-handed pitchers much better, as Seattle is batting .284 as a team against southpaws with Willie Bloomquist (.353) and the heart of the Seattle lineup all ‘clubbing’ left handers at a steady rate, Adrian Beltre (.343), Jose Lopez (.339) and Raul Ibanez (.303).

Meanwhile the Twins are hitting .277 as a team; good for third in the American League. They were very hot over a 30-day stretch in July; batting a MLB best .304 as a team. Twins batters have hit .290 as a team the past 44 games; good for the second best average in baseball while also posting the most wins (30) in MLB since June 13. Minnesota has hit right-handed pitchers for a .281 average and 55 HRs this season, and the Twins have some solid left-handed bats with speedster Denard Span at the top, switch-hitting Nick Punto, Jason Kubel, Brian Buscher and sluggers Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau in the middle of the lineup. They should have success against Miguel Batista, who is 3-9 with a 6.67 ERA in 18 starts with opponents hitting .314 in those starting assignments. Batista was rocked in his last start at Safeco while allowing eight runs in two innings against the Indians. Batista pitched pretty well on the road in two recent starts, but can’t be counted on to go more than five or six innings. What’s interesting to note about the Twins is that outside of stud closer Joe Nathan (30 saves, 0.50 ERA last 18 innings pitched), Minnesota relievers have not been too effective. In fact, the Twins relievers own a road ERA over 5.60. Seattle is counting on J.J. Putz to return to form and become their closer as they convert fireballer Brandon Morrow into a starter yet this season.

The Twins most effective starter Scott Baker takes on knuckleballer R.A. Dickey Tuesday night, before rookie right-hander Nick Blackburn battles Seattle left-hander Jarrod Washburn in daytime action Wednesday. Neither of these teams has a lot of power in their lineup, and Safeco Field yields the second fewest home runs in the American League. Still, I’m willing to bet that we see more scoring opportunities and run production than expected over the next three games.

The Rangers (56-53) continue to play above .500 ball, but I’ll be looking to ‘fade’ pitching poor Texas in August as they feel the summer heat and tackle a tough schedule in the weeks ahead. The Rangers just went 4-3 against weakened division rivals Oakland and Seattle, but now face a solid Toronto pitching staff and the Blue Jays MLB best bullpen (2.97 ERA) that has allowed just two (2) earned runs in their last 19+ innings of work (0.93 ERA). Texas then plays the Yankees four times to complete their 11-game home stand before traveling to Baltimore, Boston and then return home for Tampa Bay and Detroit. By August 21^st, Texas should be ‘roasted’ by both their opponents and the heat, and manager Ron Washington will likely be feeling more ‘heat’ also.

While the Texas bats keep the Rangers afloat and lead the majors in hitting, there is just no denying the pitching problems the Rangers have that will lead to their losing month in August. Texas actually leads the majors along with Milwaukee in one-run wins (22), but look for that good fortune to turn on Texas. The Rangers pitching staff has an ERA of 5.25 to rank dead last in the majors with the Pittsburgh Pirates and a half-run worse than the Baltimore Orioles (4.71) in the American League (AL). Texas pitchers have walked 445 batters, ranking ahead of only the Orioles staff in MLB, and the Rangers staff posted a 6.65 ERA in July. They have allowed 21 HR’s over their last 12 games and the 2^nd most in the AL this season (121) while also allowing the most hits in the AL. Beginning July 4^th, the starters have posted a 7.74 ERA and lasted at least 6.0 innings just 10 of their last 31 games.

It may get worse tonight, as Texas gives 22-year old right-hander Tommy Hunter a ‘shot’ with his MLB debut. Hunter will be the teams 13 different starter and seventh rookie starter this season, and all five original rotation members have had stints on the disabled list. Hunter played two seasons at Alabama and was primarily a closer and spot starter. He has made stops in the minors this season at Single-A, Double-A and Triple-A. Unfortunately for Hunter, there is no relief in site with the Texas bullpen, as they sport the 2^nd highest ERA in the majors at 5.02, including an awful 5.92 ERA the last 15 games while also posting the 2^nd most walks in the majors. The Rangers bullpen has the most innings pitched in MLB this season with 398.2. Talk about putting gas on the fire!

Even with Blue Jays starter Shaun Marcum (3.22 ERA) ‘off course’ in two starts since returning from the disabled list with a strained right elbow, I’ll gladly take Toronto over Texas as a small underdog with plenty of ‘relief’ in the bullpen to support Marcum. Well aware that the Blue Jays bats have provided little ‘pop’ and the two catchers have really struggled at the plate since manager Cito Gaston took over June 20^th. So has Scott Rolen (.163 in July), who will play a bit less in the month ahead as he works through a shoulder problem. However, a bright spot in the Toronto lineup is left-handed hitting Adam Lind, who batted .386 in July to rank 3^rd in the AL, and Lind is batting .359 with 16 extra base hits (37-103) since being recalled by the Blue Jays June 21^st. Alex Rios adds some pop and speed (27 stolen bases) from the 3-hole, and Toronto’s six left-handed bats should be rested and ready following a day off to ‘rough-up’ the Rangers rookie as 100-degree heat greets him in his MLB debut. Toronto should enjoy facing Texas, Oakland and Cleveland over the next ten days before facing the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays in a 15-game stretch the close the month. Despite trailing the Red Sox by 6.5 games and still behind Texas (56-53) overall, I believe Toronto (54-54) still has a little hope and a much better outlook ahead as they try to make a push towards a potential wild card while Texas is ‘toast’.

Texas made it to 4-games over .500 Wednesday night despite the absence of All-Stars Michael Young (finger) and Milton Bradley (quad) from the starting lineup. The Rangers then lost to the lowly Mariners 8-5 Thursday to split the home series, and that loss could well be the losing lead-in to a long month of August. The Rangers have not been 5-games over .500 since August of 2006, and this season marks just the 2^nd time that Texas has been over .500 through 108 games since the Rangers last playoff appearance in 1999. Despite going 13-12 and showing +2.40 units of profit in July for their betting backers, the Rangers are clearly a ‘perception’ vs ‘reality’ team in my estimation, and I believe we can make plenty of profit and ‘green’ by ‘fading’ the Rangers in the weeks and month ahead.

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