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To purchase any package or to view a complete listing of available reports, click here. | Posted: 8:08 AM In this week’s SportsMemo Newsletter I wrote about a big win, and the importance of following up a loss with a win. Due to space constraints I couldn’t fully cover the topic so I’ll blog on it today. Yesterday’s write up for next week’s Best Bet began with a recap of this week’s selection, a game I called a BIG win. It was a big win for a couple of reasons:
It followed a loss on my play from the week before, thus preventing the beginning of a streak heading in the wrong direction (the L followed five straight W’s.)
It was a winner using a big dog, going against the Brewers and their ace, Ben Sheets, at home, banking us a very nice +155.
It put me at 3-1 for MLB Newsletter BB’s, + 2.95 (a correction of the incorrect record I sent in with this week’s play, 2-1 +1.95.)
The other reason it is important to follow up an L with a W is for players. Take Saturday for instance. I had my first day this month where I dropped a full unit (-1.15 in my daily package.) For players who bought that package it is important that I follow up with a win, and a 4-2 Sunday followed, banking +2.45. A 4-2 day using standard odds of -110 is only good for +1.8, but like the newsletter plays I isolated a couple of barking dogs, the best one being +135 with Houston.
In this week’s newsletter I used another dog for my BB, going with . . . uh, uh, uh. Ya gotta pick up our Newsletter . . .
If you listened to the radio show on Friday you heard Tim mention I sent in a note to change what was our scheduled line up of topics for discussion, to include a bit about a profile play I had going that day. My best profile from last season hit 67% over 50 games to close out the season (after I discovered it at the All Star break) and I have been anxious to see how it performs over the course of a full season. As one of the criteria is 5 starts for each pitcher we are just now getting to the time of the season where we will be getting some plays. It is rare that I interrupt the show to bring a pick to everyone’s attention (ya gotta read the body language; it’s like stocks – ya gotta know when to make your move, when it’s the right time to buy) so I hope some of you noted it and bought the play, as it won with Over 9 in Fla/Wash. That win makes this particular profile 3-1 on this young season, the only loser being a game in which one of my starters left the game in the third with an injury, changing the outcome in ways that will remain unknown. Two of the winners have been Unders, the other two were plays on the Over. NOT EVERY PLAY I MAKE ON A TOTAL FITS THIS PARTICULAR PROFILE. I have 2-3 other ones I use. So, if I’m not on the radio that day, then how do you know which play is which? That will be another advantage of the new offering Tim and I announced on the show on Friday, more on that coming soon – information brings knowledge, knowledge brings winning.
Switching to the NBA front, all is well. Better than well actually, things are great. My post season record now sits at 19-9, as I continue to dominate with my plays like Secretariat dominated the field at the Belmont. It’s in the shadows a bit though, as The Tedster plays Sherman to the Bookie’s Atlanta, totally annihilating them in his wake. But, no complaints, twice as many W’s as L’s, with close to 30 games invested it has my bank account whistling a happy tune. And with 2 of 3 series won for another +1 unit banked, and only one series outstanding (NO over SA at +125) the post season has been very, very good to me. And it ain’t over yet . . .
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Sunday, June 22, 2008
| Posted: 10:18 AM It was the most “4-0” 4-2 I have ever seen.
The Lakers were never really in this one; outclassed, outplayed, outsmarted at every turn.
In game one, it was thought that they suffered from a combination of being on the road and being a little rusty from time off after dispatching the Spurs.
In game two, they were out of it early, and down by 22 at the end of Q3, and despite a big comeback found themselves returning home without the desired split on the road.
But ahh, game three. Home court, the rust off, and LA was back in rhythm, off to a good start, up at the half and back in control. Almost. They get outscored after the locker room break, for the third straight game. They fight to hold on to a win, but there does appear to be a leak in the ship.
Then came a time when it all went wrong. Up by 23 points, LA goes on to lose, and the leak is now gushing with force.
It ends a few days later in Boston, when Boston goes up by 23 and shows the Lakers how to not lose a lead.
What did we see? Good D, or poor shooting? There is no debate – Boston’s team defense shut down Kobe, made Odom and Fisher almost invisible, showed Gasol to be a lightweight, and had Radmanovic and Vujacic looking like Euro league rejects.
And let’s not forget coaching, where I was as far off in my analysis as I was on the series itself. The most telling sign? Q3. Post first half adjustments. Doc schooled the Zen Master, as his Celts took 5 of 6 Q3’s. And the rest of the games were no different, Doc made the right moves, at the right time, while Phil was often seen on the bench, rubbing his beard, looking for answers. Ones that never came.
In the end, it was 4-2. But it looked more like 4-0 . . .
“Kick off your Sunday Shoes”
Excuse me, while I sidestep sports for a brief interlude.
I called Nancy Grace.
As regular readers know, I find Nancy Grace to be one of the most despicable people on the planet. So from time to time I tune in, to see what new crap she’s trying to dish up as news while I fight the urge to participate in the viewer call in section of show by letting them know I think she's a - - - -. On Thursday, she, along with CNN, was reporting on the big story – a severed foot washed up on the shore near Vancouver. In case you are unaware, this was the fifth such appendage found in recent time, all being the right foot, so it appears five different people have met their maker via a serial killer. Nancy reported, “It most likely is some guy with a foot fetish.”
WRONG!
If it was a guy with a foot fetish the bodies would have washed up; he would have kept the feet!
But that’s not what I called to complain about. I wanted to know why they weren’t playing “Footloose” as background music for the story.
They hung up on me.
I’m thinking it won’t be the last time.
You can’t keep a good Conspiracy Theorist Down!
Had there been questionable calls on Boston in game 6, that brought about a game 7, the Conspiracy theorists would have had a field day. No matter. I heard the reason Stern didn’t exert his power to influence the outcome in game 6 was because the spotlight that was on the league regarding influencing big games for the most financially beneficial outcomes, as evidenced by the press conference Stern held mid-series, prevented him from doing so. Like I said, you can’t keep a good Conspiracy Theorist down.
Mayweather taking a nap?
On Friday, ESPN asked Marvin Hagler (the only boxer who ever said “I retire” and wasn’t lying) if he thought Floyd was retired, or just taking a break. The Marvelous one responded, “No, he’s not retired, he’ll be back. There is way too much money for him to walk away from.”
I find Floyd’s announcement curious. Last month, he forced his trainer, Uncle Roger Mayweather, to give up his job as trainer of Steve Forbes, in his bout with Oscar. His reason is that he didn’t want Roger to help Steve in case Forbes won, thus preventing Floyd from gaining what would most likely be his biggest payday ever, his rematch with DeLahoya.
Then, a few weeks later, Floyd retires??!!
Boxers fight for one reason – to get that big pay day. What was most likely going to be Floyd’s largest payday ever was his rematch with Oscar. And then, with the money right there in front of him, he suddenly decides to retire?
No.
Maybe he’s just waiting for an already old Oscar to get just a little older . . . ??? |
| Thursday, June 5, 2008
| Posted: 11:34 AM “Warning - Anyone with erections lasting more than 4 hours should consult a physician.”
This Lakers-Celtics matchup is Viagra to David Stern, and after already carrying a week-long woody Stern may need medical attention by the time it ends a week or so from now.
After what almost seems like an off season we finally get the championship round started tonight. I have already banked a profit this post season, with a 24-16 record, and I have one play outstanding, and I LOVE the price AND the play: +160 play on the Lakers in the series (wager placed on LA to win it all, as “buy notice/recommendation” as written two weeks ago: “I thought “LA to win it all” had better value than the series versus SA, and discounted Boston in Stern's desired dream match-up throwback to the good old days (the pre-Donaghy days.)”
So, I may just sit the series out and count my coin.
Yeah, right.
Here’s a quick, last minute look at the series, and some random thoughts:
There is no one player that can defend Kobe, team defense is the way to go at him, and Boston excels at this. They knocked out another singular star in LeBron, but there are two major differences between Lebron’s Cavs and Kobe’s Lakers – supporting cast and bench; the Cavs have none, the Lakers not only have both but they have quality in both.
Many bettors like Boston because they spent an entire season looking like the best team in the league, but that discounts the fact that they have looked second best at best during the playoffs. When ‘capping this series I toss the two Boston wins in the regular season - the stakes are a little different now, yes?
The Celtics barely got past two losers in Atlanta and Cleveland, and one slightly gimpy Pistons team. Boston and its fans now know why they say “The post season is not the regular season.” Comparing getting pushed to the limits by the likes of Atlanta (with a losing record), and a one man band easy-to-defend-against squad like the Cavs, as opposed to defeating the Jazz (best home record in the league) and Spurs (defending champs) is not much of a comparison. "Seasoning" and "mo" edge to LA.
Both teams have had blackouts in the post season, lousy play in spots, but LA's seem to be less and shorter lived; they seem steadier, Celt's seem up and down.
Coaching edge?
This ain’t “Apples to Oranges,” we’re talking “Apples to Onions.
And post season factored into that? Even more so.
We can debate player matchups forever, not sure it matters in the end – like I said, this matchup is Viagra to Stern, and he loves "happy endings," Hollywood endings.
And you know which team is Hollywood.
We are seeing the maturation of a superstar, one who threatens to make the much over-used Jordan comparisons legit – Kobe is playing with noticeably more maturity; you can see the playmaking ability and trust in his teammates. He seems to have gained a sense of when it is time to bring the other players into the game, and when he has to step it up himself and shoulder the burden.
Every once in a while in the world of sports there comes along that rare individual, who at his unique moment in time is less human, more unstoppable force. If you can’t see that look in Kobe then you are wearing blinders
A sweep ain't happening, because we have two good teams (besides, Stern said “No! Too much revenue left on the table!”) but when all is said I think the Celtics pull a Whitey Bulger (an in-joke for Bostonians there.)
Sometimes ‘capping ain’t about numbers, it’s about recognizing destiny . . . |
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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Tim Trushel, Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Fairway Jay, Donnie Black, Erin Rynning, Ed Cash, Jared Klein, Marty Otto, and Sonny Palermo. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from 7 a.m. to 9 a.m. Pacific on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and nationally on Sirius Hardcore Sports Channel 98 and the web at Sportsmemo.com. Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show? Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.
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No other handicapper has matched Erin Rynning's success in all sports over the last 2+ years.
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8 Straight Winning Months!
With +49.15 units so far this year, ER is on pace for over +95 Units of Profit in 2008.
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Fairway Jay chipped in birdies all month long...
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2008: 31-23 (57%) +2.4 Units
2007: 32-24 (57%) +5.6 Units
2006: 30-17 (64%) +11.9 Units
Documented #1 in the Nation
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Documented #1 in the Nation
Combined 4-Year AFL Record:
113-76 (60%) +24.6 Units
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TSC and Donnie Black have been phenomenal in both college and pro football over the last two seasons, combining for over +80 units of profit since the start of the 2006 season!
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