It’s not like a math class, that you will pass or fail then move on, or studying real estate after which you will get a license, or not; it never ends you know, the education of a handicapper. And I enjoy learning, even though sometimes it’s the hard way, like yesterday.
As anyone who has listened to me on the radio or read my columns knows, there are a few things I firmly believe in:
You should never chase – wagers or women.
You should rarely vary the amount of your bets.
You should keep a log book of your wagers.
Nancy Grace should disappear off a cruise ship in the middle of the ocean, after a big, public fight with her husband over her 7th trip to the buffet table, and all the other tabloids-posing-as-news shows should exploit it, ad nauseum.
You should never sleep with Paris Hilton.
Not even on your drunkest and horniest night. The only time it should even possibly be considered is if there is a nuclear holocaust and you are the last two people left on Earth. And you lost both hands in the explosion. And even then you should wear a Spelunkers hat, with the little flashlight on top, so you can find your way back out again. Oh yeah, and send a canary down first.
But I digress. Where was I? Oh yeah, keeping a log book.
Yesterday on the radio show Marty asked if I had any baseball games in play. I replied that I had two games that fit the #1 MLB profile I have, but as it is interleague time I needed to check my log book from last year to see if interleague play affected the numbers at all, and if it did - in what way. After the show I took out the log book and saw I did not note which plays were profile spots. I know the record was just over 67% with over 50 games used, but there was nothing in my log book to denote which plays on Ov/Un’s fit that particular profile, as opposed to other plays I used on game totals. All I see is this:
9/4 NYM@Cin Ov 10 W
Lesson learned.
The record was tracked last year through columns, emails to SM and columns, which helps me not at all this season; a year of wasted data. This year? A separate data base. It looks like this:
MLB Profile #1 (67% over 50 games in ’07; 5 parameters:)
5/2 Cin @ Atl Volquez vs Hudson Under 8’ 0-2 Winner
5/3 Det @ Min Verlander vs Baker Over 9 1-4 Loser (Baker injured;lft gm in 3rd)
5/7 Cle @ NYY Lee vs Wang Under 8 3-0 Winner
5/9 Fla @ Wash Lannan vs Backe Over 9 7-3 Winner
5/13 Hou @ SF Backe vs Cain Over 8 2-4 Loser
Interleague
5/16 Wash @ Balt Hill vs Olsen Un 8’ 3-5 WINNER
5/16 Oak @ Atl Eveland (L) vs. Jurens Un 8’ 2-3 WINNER
Interleague games are highlighted in blue, so I know there are extra factors I can track on those particular spots. Also, by logging pitchers, I will have more data to work with if they show up in the profile multiple times. And by tracking where the game was played I can track which parks work best for which spots, and in interleague play I can create a subcategory to see if Unders work better when it is in a National League Park, or if Overs pay off more when it is in an AL park, etc. The more data, the more subcategories, the more subcategories, the more winners I can isolate.
I didn’t use yesterday’s two plays in my package, opting for the D Rays and Hou/Tx Over, but I could have had a 4-0 day instead of 2-0. Based on last year’s post-All Star break numbers (when I came up with the play) and early success this year, I think I’ll just play it every time it appears. And look for a couple of key spots to go “2 unit KO play” with it.
And the next time it appears I’ll post it as a free play semi-hidden in a blog, as thanks for reading this column.
Keep learning, it’s the only way to grow (except for Viagra) . . .
