Today’s blog is on spotting ideal betting situations, a serious matter and so there is no humor to be found here-in (as is true of all my blogs some say.)

Game four, Pistons versus the Celtics. Line on the Over/Under? 176 points. Final score? 94-75, for a total of 169, falling under the mark by seven points. Game five total? 173. We get a drop of three points. Looking at the box score from game four we see the Celtics shot only 31%. You KNOW that number is going to improve in the next game, when they will be at home. On the other side, Detroit shot 51% at home in game four, and you expect that number will go down on the road, BUT . . . they shot 42% in game one in Boston, and 49% in Boston in game two, so you factor in that the drop should be minimal.

So, in game five, what you have is a total that dropped by three points, after missing by seven in the previous game, with a home team that is most likely going to shoot FG's at a minimum of 10% better than in the previous game, and a road team that is most likely going to shoot above 40% as well. A no-brainer on the Over, right? Except for one thing – similar numbers can be found in other games of this playoff season, and yet the Over has not come home a winner.

It did work last night, as Detroit shot 46% (as expected) and the Celtics hit for 50% (again, as expected, better than the 31% in game four) and the final score was 106-102, total of 208, or a whopping 35 points over the set number, and two more post-season winners for me as I hit the side and total. That’s the way, uh-huh, uh-huh, I like it.

I like it almost enough to come back with a play on the Over in tonight’s game between SA and LA, which has a similar total (193) to their last game, which had a total of 192’ and missed by eight points. The Lakers put up a measly 16 points in the fourth quarter in that game, and you know that won’t happen again tonight. The problem is, it isn’t their first below average quarter in this series, they put up a 19 in game one at home, and I can’t look past their 15 and 18 point quarters on the road against the Spurs (some of the low scoring quarters we are seeing this post season ARE due to solid defensive play; not much, but some.) And even if LA puts up their average of 24 or so per Q, you can’t depend on the Spurs to do their part to contribute to an Over – they have put up Q’s of 16, 14, and 13 in LA. Most telling is the Q4’s they put up in both meetings at The Staples Center – 14 and 13. As I have mentioned throughout the late season and post season thus far – we are seeing experience turning into old age; like a boxer, their legs just aren’t there for the final rounds, especially not when within the comfy confines of home court.

Three of the four games have seen Q4’s (37, 41, 61 and 37) that stayed Under the total. Tonight you can get 47’. Throw out the odd Q4, 61 in game three, and you are left with two Q4’s that are a full TEN points Under tonight’s number, and a third that is Under by 6’. This makes Under 47’ seem attractive in tonight’s game, but after all the publicity about the non-call on Barry to end game four you have to be concerned that the refs may look to avoid further controversy and be awarding free throws a little more generously tonight.

That’s the thing about the refs this post season – there is no telling what kind of job they are going to do. Sometimes they look solid, sometimes they look totally inept. And sometimes they look like Donaghy’s, and the Conspiracy Theorists are out in full force with loud voice. It wouldn’t be the NBA playoffs if it was any other way . . .

(Foot note – I listened to part of the game on my car radio last night, not sure who the commentators were on 1100 AM here in Sin City, but one of them made a statement worth noting. Early in the fourth quarter, he said, “This is the first game in this series where we have seen steady, quality play from both teams, all game long” which I think was a nice way of saying, “This Detroit-Boston series has sucked so far, and the quality of play has been on a Memphis-Miami level.” Of course he said this before Detroit went on a 21-8 run, and Boston blew a 12 point lead to almost lose the game. . .)