With a nod for the column title to Sir Arthur’s tales of Mycroft’s younger brother (BIG fan, of both the original articles as they appeared in The Strand and the movies with Mr. Rathbone.)

I move lines. It’s no big deal, anyone who bets can do so. And it’s not bragging, as the only ones who seem to be impressed with it is Joe Tourist. I state the fact merely as background to show that I am familiar with lines, and movements, as both a bettor and bookmaker. And being so, I can tell you that something was not quite right with yesterday’s fight between Lizarraga and Meza Clay.

Friday, in the early AM, I checked three outs, saw that the best price for the wager I wanted was at -120, and banged it. After this, I sent the play in to Sportsmemo at -125, knowing that would now be the best available line. I make my plays before I announce it to friends, clients and in forums, because I know sometimes the lines move after I do so. Later on yesterday morning I wanted to buy in again, and noticed that the line was now up at least 25 cents, at ALL THREE outs. Curious, but not that unusual.

Mid-afternoon I checked again. Prices were now up by fifty cents. One book was up by about 75 cents. It was then that I began to wonder, “By the pricking of my thumb . . .”

This was not a highly anticipated bout.

It was not a highly publicized bout.

It was a bout in which most people have never heard of either fighter.

It wasn’t even the Friday Nighter on ESPN.  

And yet, the line was relatively sky rocketing - someone was pounding the round prop. Many major bouts do not see movements such as this.

I have used Clay before, and thought I had this one nailed, too. Experience said, “Price be damned, buy it again.” And so I did.

Here was the write-up I mentioned in the forum (something I do rarely – if ever? - a difference and tip that I hope some of you picked up on):

Fernando Lizarraga (16-4, 12KO's) vs. Monty Meza Clay (27-1,18 KO's)

Play Under 9' -125

76% of Lizzaraga fights end by KO

70% of Clay's by KO

Clay is a punching machine, throwing high volumes, and is naturally bigger so he should have a little extra power at tonight's limit;

CLAY USUALLY FIGHTS IN THE MID-130'S,

Lizzaraga is a normally a featherweight at 126 to 128 range!!

As long as the weight was lost gradually, and I hear it was, stamina should not be a factor.

Clay is in front of his hometown fans AND a title shot is guaranteed if he wins tonight

All Lizarraga losses have been KO defeats - Meza Clay is a better than 10-1 fav tonight

Take UNDER 9' -125 for 1 unit

Eight o’clock, I got out my Spanish to English dictionary, tuned in to Telefutura, and made myself comfortable on the recliner.

I could have remained standing.

Ninety-one seconds later it was over (or “Under” I should say!)

Meza Clay landed a hellacious left hook to the gut - “plexus solaris” according to the announcer – that put Lizzy down on the canvas. But Fernando sat up and was alert, in a sitting position, listening to the count, waiting to rise. And then, an occurrence most curious – as he rose at “ten” the ref waived him off.

Both Clay and Lizarraga looked shocked at the call, both looking to their corners as if asking in disbelief “Is it over?”

Technically, you have to rise before the man says “ten” so the call can be justified, but it was obvious Lizarraga was ready to go and was just taking full advantage of the count to offset the effects of the body blow.

But combined with the way the line moved throughout the day, it makes you wonder . . .