In 2007, the New York Yankees were a solid Over team, thanks to an offense that led the majors in runs scored, hits, batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS.  They led the AL in home runs and ranked third in the AL in walks.  Meanwhile, the Bronx Bombers pitching staff was mediocre at best, ranked 17th out of thirty MLB teams in ERA.  The Yanks issued more walks than all but five other teams while ranking 24th in strikeouts.
 
Talk about a sharp turnaround! This year, the Yankees have been the single strongest Under team in all of baseball: 8-20-1 to the Under through their first 29 games. What gives?
 
It’s certainly not the Yankees starting pitching, every bit as mediocre this year as it was in 2007.  Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte are the only two New York starters who have been consistently effective through the first month of the season.  Mike Mussina has only two quality starts (six or more innings pitched, three earned runs or less allowed) in his six trips to the mound.  Today’s starter, Ian Kennedy has been awful, sporting an 8.52 ERA, a 2.11 WHIP and a .307 batting average against.  The other ‘promising’ youngster in the starting rotation, Phil Hughes, has been even worse, with an ERA of 9.00, a WHIP of 2.14 with opposing hitters batting .362 against him. If you’re looking to isolate why the Bronx Bombers have been an Under machine this year, it’s not because of their starting pitching.
 
The Yankees bullpen is vastly improved in early season play compared to last year. As a unit, the bullpen’s ERA is down a half run from a season ago.  The Joba Chamberlain/Mariano Rivera combo in the eighth and ninth innings has been phenomenal: 22.1 innings of work, 12 hits, 3 walks, 25 strikeouts and only two runs allowed.  Brian Bruney, too, has great stats out of the pen, although he’s currently on the DL.  Even the much maligned Kyle Farnsworth has been solid in early season play.   In short, the Yanks haven't been giving up many late inning runs, an issue that was central to their Over nature a season ago.
 
But the primary reason for this early season run of Unders has been New York’s sluggish offense.  The Yanks have scored more than six runs in a game only four times all year. Last year, the Yankees scored seven runs or more on 68 different occasions, and they scored exactly six runs 17 times. Not surprisingly, New York went Over the total to the tune of 60 Overs, 20 Unders and five pushes in those 85 games where the offense produced runs in bunches.
 
We simply haven’t seen this offense come to life yet this year. Jorge Posada is hurt. A-Rod is hurt. Jeter has been hurt.  Jason Giambi and Robinson Cano are both off to terrible starts.  The only starter hitting over .300 right now is Hideki Matsui.
 
As a team, the Yanks are middle of the pack statistically with a .255 batting average. They are below the major league average in both runs scored and on base percentage. Last year, the Yankees averaged 5.69 runs scored per game. This year, through the month of April, the Yanks have scored only 4.31 runs per game.  And, with the betting marketplace lagging well behind the current production levels of this offense, it’s no surprise that the Yanks have trended heavily towards the Under.  In fact, only one Yankees game all year has been totaled at less than nine runs; the other 28 games have seen totals of nine or higher.
 
This lineup is far too talented to continue slumping indefinitely.  I suspect that the trend line for cashing on a daily basis with the Yankees Under the total has come and gone.  As the weather warms up, I'll definitely be looking to bet New York Over in selected spots, particularly against opposing starters with control problems, because the Yankees lineup, despite their early season slump, is still extremely patient at the plate, taking walks and making opposing hurlers pay for those free passes.

For more baseball betting analysis by Teddy Covers, go to www.sportsmemo.com.