Baseball is a completely different type of sport to handicap from the two most popular betting sports, football and basketball. On the gridiron and the hardwood, teams are separated by pointspreads, and wagers are placed either laying the points with the favorite or taking the points with the underdog.
But betting baseball, there is no pointspread to differentiate between the underdog and favorite. Instead, baseball side wagers use a moneyline as a basis for determining the relative value of the two teams pitted against each other.
Wagering on a favorite in baseball oftentimes requires the bettor to lay a substantial price for his support. It’s not uncommon for a favorite in baseball to be priced at -200, -250, or even -300 and above. The bettor must be right better than 75% of the time with his big three dollar favorites in order to earn a profit, far greater than the 52.4% of the time that is the break even point for standard 11:10 pointspread wagering.
And baseball underdogs win much less than half of the time – picking dogs that are competitive, but not winning outright, can leave a bettor with a bankroll spiraling in the wrong direction. In addition, baseball is the only betting sport in which the line is completely and utterly affected by a single player scheduled to be in the starting lineup – the starting pitcher.
In basketball, the LA Lakers may be adjusted from a seven point favorite down to a two point favorite if reigning league MVP Kobe Bryant is going to miss the game due to an injury. A similar four or five pointspread adjustment is normal for a key football injury as well, such as if Tom Brady were to miss a game for the New England Patriots.
But baseball prices are, in most instances, very heavily weighted towards the starting pitcher. Here’s a clear example from this past weekend’s action. On Saturday, the Arizona Diamondbacks were -150 against the Mets, with Brandon Webb facing Mike Pelfrey. The very next day, on Sunday, the Mets were -120 favorites over Arizona, with Johan Santana facing Dan Haren. That line could easily have been -160 or higher had Arizona sent Edgar Gonzalez to the hill, even if every other player in the lineup for both teams was unchanged.
These type of dramatic price adjustments based on the projected starters alone are unique to bases, making it a significant challenge for any handicapper.
Betting totals in baseball is also a completely different exercise than betting totals in basketball and football.
Basketball totals are set almost entirely in regard to the pace that the two teams are projected to play at. If the Suns are playing the Nuggets, two teams that love to run and gun, both averaging over 80 shots per game, the total will be set at 225 or higher. When the Rockets play the Spurs, two teams that rely almost exclusively on half court offense, both clubs with consistently outstanding defensive efforts, the total will be as low as 175.
Yet, when all is said and done, the game will often go Over or Under the total based on two factors not necessarily related to pace – shooting percentage and free throw attempts. If two low scoring teams have good shooting days, the total is likely to go Over.
The way a game is officiated has a huge impact on basketball totals. On nights where the refs are willing to let the two teams play physical basketball without blowing their whistles, shooting percentages will be down because defenders can maintain better position, and points scored without any time coming off the clock (at the free throw line) will be minimized – every point will have to be earned.
On the other hand, on the nights where every touch foul gets whistled by the zebras, teams can easily score 30 or more points each at the free throw line, with no time coming off the clock. And defenders are likely to back off a bit for fear of fouls giving their opponents easier looks at the basket, also likely to result in more points being scored.
Football totals are tricky in their own way, for a different group of reasons. Football totals are set based on the offensive and defensive capabilities of the two teams– no surprise there. But betting football totals is a very tricky animal, because yards don’t always equal points.
It’s not uncommon for a team to go on two long drives to start out the game, gaining 150+ yards, but ending up with only a field goal attempt or two. Similarly, a team can struggle to move the football for most of the game, then make a big play or two on offense, defense or special teams, and boom – 14 points have been scored in a matter of seconds.
Red zone execution (touchdowns or field goals), turnovers (which end zone are they near?), big plays or the lack thereof all affect football totals going Under or Over as much or more than the offensive and defensive capabilities of the two teams.
I certainly don’t exclude basketball and football totals from my handicapping arsenal – there are some situations that stand out, simply too good opportunities to miss or ignore, but football or basketball totals don’t make up more than 25% of my wagers over the course of the regular season (the playoffs are a different story, but I’ll save that discussion for another day).
And we’ve already established some of the reasons why baseball side wagers can be difficult for many bettors to beat. In order to support one team’s potent offense, or their vastly superior starting pitching, the bettor is forced to lay a high price that requires him to be right as much as ¾ of the time just to break even.
Likewise, bettors can be dismayed in a hurry when their high priced stud starting pitcher gets pulled for a pinch hitter in the 6th inning with the score tied, leaving a bullpen that is far less reliable then the starter to earn the victory.
Check back tomorrow for Part 2 of this blog entry, as I outline six reasons why betting MLB totals is a profitable endeavor, year in and year out.
For more baseball betting analysis by Teddy Covers, go to www.sportsmemo.com. 
All Sports in June
June Baseball
2008 PGA Season
