In the NFL, for more than a decade, we saw the AFC dominate inter-conference games against the NFC. From 1996 through 2006, the AFC won the inter-conference battle every single season (the two conferences were tied at 30-30 in two years, 2000 and 2001). 2006 saw complete domination from the AFC, winning 40 of the 64 non-conference games. 2007 was the first year since 1995 where the NFC won the straight up battle between the two conferences.
It’s a similar story in the NBA, where the Western Conference has been head-and-shoulders better than the Eastern Conference since the Chicago Bulls dynasty came to an end a decade ago. And savvy bettors know full well the dominance of the American League over the National League in baseball in recent seasons: 136-116 in 2005, 154-98 in 2006 and 137-115 in 2007.
But none of these stories of inter-league or inter-conference supremacy can hold a candle to what we’ve seen in the Arena Football League in 2008 – we’re truly witnessing historical domination this season. The American Conference has exactly one team above .500 (the Chicago Rush) after San Jose’s loss at Orlando this past weekend dropping the Sabercats to .500.
Meanwhile, the National Conference has a 9-1 Philly team, an 8-1 Dallas team, the 7-3 VooDoo and Predators and both Cleveland and New York above .500 as well. My power ratings have four of the five weakest teams in the AFL -- Kansas City, Utah, Grand Rapids and LA – all sitting in the American Conference. With six of the eight teams in the American Conference reaching the postseason (six of nine make it in the National Conference), we’re likely to see a 6-10 team make the playoffs from the American Conference this year, with a 5-11 team making the playoffs within the realm of the reasonable.
In head to head games between the two conferences, the National Conference has been nearly unbeatable. After the aforementioned Predators victory over the Sabercats, the National Conference is now 23-6 SU against their brothers from the American side, which has translated to a 21-8 ATS mark in those non-conference battles. In Week 11 (this coming week), Columbus will face Kansas City, Grand Rapids travels to Dallas and New York visits LA in a trio of non-conference games.
It’s surely worth noting that the six straight up wins by American Conference teams all came from the mediocre teams – Colorado, Arizona and Los Angeles (4-5, 4-5 and 4-6 respectively). The two ‘elite level’ teams from the American Conference – Chicago and the defending Arena Bowl champs San Jose, are a combined 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS against National Conference foes, which does not bode well for their respective chances in Arena Bowl XXII in New Orleans in late July. Meanwhile, none of the nine National Conference teams has lost more than one game against American Conference competition.
We saw the final winless team in the AFL earn their first victory of the season this past weekend, while the last undefeated team in the league suffered their first defeat. The Utah Blaze win over Kansas City was no great surprise – they were three-point favorites in the game against the 1-8 Brigade. "It was great to see our guys fight for four quarters" said Blaze head coach Danny White. "We came out on the first series of the third quarter and threw an interception, and it could have been real easy for everybody to go in the tank at that point. Everyone just kept playing and stayed up the whole game."
Despite the aforementioned interception, Blaze quarterback Joe Germaine enjoyed one of the best passing days by any quarterback in the league this season, completing 24-of-30 attempts for 337 yards and eight touchdowns. Germaine’s 11.1 yards per pass attempt ranks in the Top 5 in that key statistical category for any QB this year. Germaine hasn’t been great, but he certainly isn’t the reason for the Blaze’s struggles – Utah is actually the second highest scoring team in the American Conference after Chicago. Unfortunately, the defense behind him has been nothing short of atrocious, dead last in the AFL in points allowed by a fairly wide margin –only the equally bad LA Avengers defense comes close to matching Utah’s ineptitude on that side of the football.
Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Soul blew a two touchdown lead thanks to an ugly second half performance on the road at Cleveland, falling to 9-1 with their first loss of the year. It was a horrible ‘spot’ for the Soul, coming off a blowout win on Monday Night Football against the only other undefeated team (at the time), Dallas. Philly had less than 96 hours to prepare for their road trip to Cleveland not enough time to rest up, devise a game plan and execute it effectively.
To make matters worse, the Soul suffered a barrage of injuries that could affect them very negatively in the weeks to come. Philly put a pair of defensive backs on injured reserve following the Monday Night blowout: Brian Mance, the team’s second leading tackler, and Mike Brown, the team’s third leading tackler. Between them, they had 12 pass breakups, three forced fumbles, five fumble recoveries and five interceptions. Brown is also their kick returner, averaging more than 19 yards per return (on a 50 yard field) with three kick return touchdowns.
Then, during the game, starting quarterback Matt D’Orazio suffered a leg injury that will keep him out of action for the next few weeks. Graziani, the Soul’s original starter before he got hurt back in Week 3, was forced to come on in replacement of D’Orazio, still not 100% himself. Graziani was extremely rusty coming off the bench, throwing a key interception on his first drive in the game, while fumbling the center/quarterback exchange on three different occasions. The final Graziani fumble was the one that killed any chances of salvaging their perfect season. Trailing by six at the one minute warning, Graziani’s fumble was recovered by the Gladiators and turned immediately into six points in the other direction on the ensuing drive, leading to the 12 point margin of defeat.
For more Arena Football betting analysis by Teddy Covers, go to www.sportsmemo.com.